US embassy cable - 04LAGOS1068

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001068 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON, PARIS PASS AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2014 
TAGS: PHUM, KDEM, SOCI, PGOV, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: NOBEL LAUREATE WOLE SOYINKA ARRESTED, 
MEETS WITH CG 
 
REF: A. ABUJA 849 
     B. ABUJA 865 
     C. ABUJA 829 
 
Classified By: Consul General Robyn Hinson-Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) an 
d (d). 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: The Nigerian Police Force (NPF) arrested 
and later released Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka and six other 
human rights activists on May 15 during a rally held in Lagos 
opposing President Olusegun Obasanjo's administration and its 
policies.  Soyinka later met with the CG and POLOFF on May 19 
and gave his account of the rally, the mission of his new 
organization Citizens Forum (CF), and his assessment of 
Obasanjo.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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LAGOS RALLY, A BUILDUP FOR CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Hundreds of protestors assembled at Campos Square, 
Lagos Island on May 15 in anticipation of Soyinka's arrival. 
With equal anticipation police, already present at the scene, 
destroyed the speaker's podium and dispersed the protestors 
with tear gas in advance.  The protestors later regrouped and 
were soon joined by Soyinka and other prominent human rights 
activists including Gani Fawehinmi, Beko Ransome-Kuti, and 
Femi Falana.  Soyinka told us that police again fired tear 
gas into the crowds and then arrested seven rally organizers, 
including Soyinka, by "bundling us into a meat wagon."  En 
route to NPF Lagos headquarters, the truck was diverted and 
Soyinka told us he meet with two police officials he knew who 
apologized for the arrest.  He then received a call from NPF 
Inspector General Tafa Balogun who expressed the same 
sentiments and explained that he never gave orders to arrest 
anyone, but to only break up the rally.  Within an hour, 
Soyinka and his colleagues were released without charge. 
 
3.  (C) The NPF has publicly denied arresting Soyinka, 
claiming he was merely detained.  The press and the 
opposition Alliance for Democracy (AD) party have 
hypothesized that Soyinka's arrest was the work of an 
overzealous and newly appointed Lagos Commissioner of Police 
who wants to score points with Obasanjo by keeping protestors 
in check and exhibiting independence from Lagos Governor Bola 
Tinubu, who is the AD's most prominent politician.  Soyinka 
told us that both explanations were "rubbish."  He surmised 
that Obasanjo directed the disruption of the rally and his 
arrest.  The President, Soyinka opined, feels embolden by his 
recent successful break up of former President and recent All 
Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) presidential candidate 
Mohammadu Buhari's most recent rally (ref A).  "Besides, 
Obasanjo cannot show preference to another Yoruba man," 
Soyinka jested.  Soyinka told us he would continue his 
efforts to point out the failings of the government. 
 
--------------------------- 
CITIZENS FORUM'S GAME PLANS 
--------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) Citizens Forum (CF), a newly created civil rights 
organization founded by Soyinka and others is a coalition of 
human rights groups and civic organizations.  CF advocates 
the creation of a Sovereign National Conference (SNC) to 
reverse unconstitutional enactments by Obasanjo and formulate 
a new constitution.  On these two issues CF coalition members 
are in agreement.  They differ, however, on whether Obasanjo 
and other politicians should resign from office and a 
National Unity Government be created.  Soyinka has been 
erroneously quoted in the press as calling for Obasanjo's 
resignation.  On May 19, Soyinka held another press 
conference to clarify his position.  "I would like to see 
those largely fraudulent arms of governance vanish, and I may 
yet join in the call for their suicide.  The fact, however, 
is that I have not yet done so.  My tactical priorities for 
now are stemming the nation's drift towards fascism and 
convening a Sovereign National Conference." 
 
5.  (C) Soyinka detailed to us his vision for the SNC.  He is 
calling for 500 participants representing human rights 
groups, the military, the NPF, politicians, religious groups, 
tribal leaders, concerned professionals, and scholars who 
would meet over a six month period.  The SNC would be tasked 
with creating a new constitution, replacing the Independent 
National Electoral Commission (INEC), and addressing national 
issues such as ethno-religious violence, corruption, and the 
nature of Nigerian democracy.  When pressed how he would get 
sitting politicians to buy into a forum that could jeopardize 
their legitimacy, Soyinka said there were two schools of 
thoughts on the issue.  There are some who advocate that 
decisions are binding with immediate effect, creating a 
National Unity Government and beginning a new election cycle. 
 However, Soyinka advocated a binding decision that would be 
implemented with the next scheduled national elections of 
2007.  Soyinka reasoned that politicians would not feel their 
existing tenures threatened and those who will not have 
reached their term limits could run on the platform of 
implementing social change that they helped create.  He 
stated that Obasanjo has been receptive to the idea in 
private meetings when tensions are high, but then dismisses 
it when situations cool. 
 
-------------------------------- 
OBASANJO, PLACATER OF THE NORTH? 
-------------------------------- 
6.  (C) Soyinka showed disdain for many of Obasanjo's 
policies, which he described as unilateral and dictatorial, 
rising to a "level of intolerance reaching academic 
proportions."  The recent announcement of a state of 
emergency in Plateau State over unabated ethno-religious 
violence in May (ref B) was of deepening concern to Soyinka. 
He was disturbed with Obasanjo's coup of suspending the 
governor, deputy governor, and state assembly and replacing 
them with a former military governor of Plateau State after 
Obasanjo's attempts to force the state house of assembly to 
impeach the governor failed.  Soyinka attributed the decision 
to Obasanjo's political precariousness in light of increasing 
national instability and his habitual placation to northern 
sentiments, which Soyinka claims dates to Obasanjo's career 
in the military. 
 
7.  (C) Kano and Delta States, Soyinka argues, should have 
had states of emergency enacted several times under 
Obasanjo's rubric for justifying that of Plateau.  Soyinka 
pointed out the recent Kano riots (ref C) and its history of 
being a manipulated flashpoint of religious violence as a 
more probable justification for a suspension of the state 
government, but believes this has been purposely ignored by 
Obasanjo.  Soyinka thinks Obasanjo may use the threat of a 
state of emergency to keep erring governors in check or in an 
attempt to wrest power from the AD in Lagos, which Soyinka 
described as an insolent state that the president's party has 
been enviously eyeing. 
 
8.  (C) COMMENT: Soyinka made it clear to us that he is ready 
to return to the national arena of civil disobedience and be 
active in producing social change in Nigeria.  He currently 
is setting up a literary institute at the University of 
Nevada - Las Vegas, but intimated that it was not too 
demanding on his time.  He has since returned to the United 
States and is making arrangements to be permanently based in 
Lagos, commuting to Nevada when needed.  As instability and 
public dissatisfaction increases, the message of Soyinka and 
his colleagues and their continued efforts to demonstrate 
against the Obasanjo administration will keep this Nobel 
Laureate in the news for sometime to come.  END COMMENT. 
HINSON-JONES