US embassy cable - 04ISTANBUL798

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000798 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, AM, TU, Istanbul 
SUBJECT: TURKISH-ARMENIAN RAPPROCHEMENT: NO LIGHT AT THE 
END OF THE TUNNEL 
 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 317 
     B. ANKARA 2522 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General David Arnett for Reasons 1.5 (b&d) 
 
 
1. (c) Summary: Until now Istanbul-based initiatives have had 
an important role to play in track-two moves to improve 
Turco-Armenian relations.  However, the Turkish Armenian 
Reconciliation Commission (TARC), much-derided by the 
Armenian diaspora and largely ignored by Turks, has 
discontinued its active work and appears to be reinventing 
itself as a more passive bilateral forum.  Separately, a 
Vienna-based initiative to bring together Turkish and 
Armenian historians has attracted little attention in 
Istanbul and will have trouble finding common ground between 
its participants.  Citing an unfavorable political climate 
and bilateral tensions, the Armenian Patriarch has asked the 
Armenian Catholicos to delay a planned visit to Turkey until 
2006.  End Summary. 
 
 
The TARC is Dead, Long Live the TARC 
------------------------------------ 
2. (c) At an April Moscow meeting, the TARC decided to 
declare victory and "discontinue" its work.  Former Turkish 
Foreign Minister Ilter Turkmen and former Bilgi University 
Rector Ilter Turan, two of the Turkish participants, both 
told Istanbul poloff that the TARC had largely succeeded in 
its limited objectives, namely, to develop a rapport and an 
atmosphere of mutual trust and confidence between key 
unofficial Turks and Armenians.  In Moscow, they endorsed the 
recommendations of coordinators David Philips and Joe 
Montville to take the logical next step and use this core 
group of individuals in a reconstituted Consultative Group to 
support and promote worthwhile track-two initiatives.  The 
new group will meet less frequently (perhaps annually), but 
will include a wider range of businessmen, academics, and NGO 
figures. 
 
 
3. (c) At the same time, the TARC members undertook to 
approach their respective governments  to offer advice on how 
to advance reconciliation efforts.  Both Turkmen and Turan 
said that the recommendations would include an opening of the 
Turkish-Armenian border.  Both noted, however, that Armenia 
would also need to explicitly reject any territorial claims 
on Turkey.  (Comment:  However, the Turkish MFA has told us 
in Ankara, Armenian recognition of the border is not 
sufficient for Turkey to open the border or restore 
diplomatic relations; concessions on the occupied territories 
would have to be part of any package that would do the trick. 
 End Comment).  Turan opined that this could be accomplished 
by measures short of rewriting the Armenian Declaration of 
Independence and Constitution, perhaps even "a simple 
parliamentary resolution" would do.  Turkmen averred 
separately that he thought a statement that explicitly refers 
to the appropriate articles in the 1921 Moscow and Kars 
Agreements would be sufficient.  According to Turkmen, the 
Armenian members of TARC also agreed on the need for such a 
statement.  Turan added, however, that some kind of 
"face-saving" measures might also need to be taken to give 
Azerbaijan the cover it would need to accede to such a 
development. 
 
 
Viennese Armenian-Turkish Platform 
---------------------------------- 
4. (u) A separate initiative, the Viennese Armenian-Turkish 
Platform (sometimes referred to as the Turkish-Armenian 
Historical Commission) is also making an effort to tackle the 
"genocide" issue directly.  Academics from both Armenia and 
Turkey, presumably with permission from their governments, 
have already exchanged historical information and documents 
and are due to meet in Vienna on July 25.  This initial 
meeting is ostensibly to prepare for a more formal meeting to 
take place next spring.  Judging by recent anti-Armenian 
statements of Yusuf Halacoglu, President of the Turkish 
History Institution and the senior Turkish participant, the 
commission will be hard-pressed to find much middle ground 
between the two sides.  Halacoglu also co-authored a new book 
that debunks Armenian "genocide" claims, including a 
"mathematical" refutation of the much-cited assertion that 
1.5 million Armenians perished in that period. 
 
 
Visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev 
------------------------------------------- 
5. (c) Armenia-bashing was the dominant theme of Azeri 
President Aliyev,s April 13-15 visit to Turkey.  Azerbaijani 
Ambassador Mehmed Nevruzoglu Aliyev, Azerbaijani Consul 
General Ibrahim Nebioglu Yagubov and DCM Abdullahyev have all 
told us that the primary agenda item for the visit was "to 
put an end" to any plans to relax the current Turkish border 
restrictions with Armenia.  Ambassador Aliyev claims that 
while there may have been some support for a border opening 
at the "mid-levels of the Turkish bureaucracy" (Comment:  A 
misperception: see reftels and previous.  End Comment.), 
senior Turkish officials disavowed any plans for such 
measures in their meetings with President Aliyev. 
 
 
Visit of Catholicos Karekin II 
------------------------------ 
6. (c) Catholicos Karekin II of Echmiadzin has been planning 
a visit to Turkey (the last such visit was made several years 
ago by his predecessor).  Kaan Soyak, Co-Chairman of the 
Turkish-Armenian Business Development Council, told poloff 
that he had been passing messages between Yerevan and Ankara 
and thought that such a visit might take place as soon as 
this year.  However, Armenian Patriarch Mesrob II, who has 
been consulting with Ecumenical Patriarch Batholomew (who 
would likely invite the Catholicos for an ecumenical visit) 
told poloff that he had recommended that the visit be 
postponed to 2006.  Mesrob argued that he was unprepared for 
a visit this year and that with 2005 being the 90th 
anniversary of the "genocide," tensions would be too high for 
such a visit before Spring 2006.  Even then, Mesrob added, he 
would not "allow" the Catholicos to visit any sensitive sites 
in eastern Turkey for fear that this would simply exacerbate 
tensions.  (Comment: Inter-church politics and unresolved 
tension between Mesrob and Karekin (which Mesrob attributes 
to Karekin's "overly politicized" nature) may have influenced 
Mesrob's desire to postpone the visit.  Embassy Ankara and 
ConGen Istanbul would be interested in Embassy Yerevan's 
views on the subject of a possible visit by Karekin). 
ARNETT