US embassy cable - 04DUBLIN760

UNCLAS DUBLIN 000760 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EUN 
SUBJECT: IRISH REMAIN CONFIDENT ON EU CONSTITUTION, DESPITE 
MEDIA PESSIMISM 
 
REF: DUBLIN 737 
 
1.  SUMMARY. DURING A MAY 19 DEBRIEF OF THE MAY 17-18 GAERC, 
IRISH EUROPEAN CORRESPONDENT KEVIN CONMY AND IGC NEGOTIATOR 
BOB PATTERSON STRESSED THAT IRELAND REMAINS CONFIDENT OF 
SUCCESSFULLY NEGOTIATING THE NEW EU CONSTITUTION BY THE JUNE 
17-18 EUROPEAN COUNCIL.  THEY DISMISSED RECENT PESSIMISTIC 
MEDIA REPORTING AS NOT REFLECTIVE OF THE BIGGER PICTURE OR 
THE CONTINUING POLITICAL WILL TO CLOSE THE DEAL. CONMY ALSO 
BRIEFLY REVIEWED GAERC CONCLUSIONS ON ESDP, WESTERN BALKANS, 
SUMMIT PREPARATIONS, MEPP AND IRAQ.  END SUMMARY. 
 
IGC DISCUSSIONS ON TRACK, ACCORDING TO THE IRISH 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
2.  ON MAY 19 IRISH EUROPEAN CORRESPONDENT KEVIN CONMY AND 
IGC NEGOTIATOR BOB PATTERSON BRIEFED NON-EU AMBASSADORS ON 
THE RESULTS OF THE MAY 17-18 BRUSSELS GAERC/IGC, 
CONCENTRATING ON THE IGC NEGOTIATIONS.  IGC NEGOTIATOR BOB 
PATTERSON DESCRIBED THE TWO PAPERS PREPARED FOR THE 
GAERC/IGC, NOTING THAT ONE REPORT CONTAINED THOSE ITEMS ON 
WHICH THE IRISH FELT CONSENSUS HAD BEEN ACHIEVED, WHILE THE 
OTHER LAID OUT REMAINING INSTITUTIONAL AND NON-INSTITUTIONAL 
ISSUES TO BE DISCUSSED.  ON THESE LATTER ISSUES, HE NOTED 
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A THREE-COUNTRY 18 MONTH PRESIDENCY 
ROTATION WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MODEL, BUT WOULD 
PROVIDE GREATER EFFICIENCY AND COORDINATION AND DESCRIBED THE 
DISCUSSION OF REMAINING ISSUES AS "CONSTRUCTIVE", 
PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE COMPOSITION OF THE FUTURE 
COMMISSION.  PATTERSON NOTED THAT THE IRISH HAD PUT FORWARD A 
COMPROMISE PROPOSAL WHEREBY EACH COUNTRY WOULD RETAIN A 
REPRESENTATIVE ON THE COMMISSION UNTIL 2014, AT WHICH TIME 
ITS SIZE WOULD BE REDUCED.  MOST STATES ACCEPTED THE NEED TO 
REDUCE THE SIZE OF THE COMMISSION IN ORDER TO GAIN 
OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY AND, ACCORDING TO PATTERSON, THE 
DISCUSSION CENTERED ON HOW MUCH OF A REDUCTION WAS NECESSARY 
WITH SOME SUPPORTING 15 MEMBERS, BENELUX PROPOSING 18, AND 
OTHERS SUGGESTING A FIXED RATIO OF TWO-THIRDS, WHATEVER THE 
FUTURE SIZE OF THE COMMISSION. 
 
3.  PATTERSON ANNOUNCED THAT A FURTHER MINISTERIAL IGC 
MEETING WILL TAKE PLACE MAY 24 WHERE THE FOCUS OF DISCUSSION 
WILL BE PRIMARILY ON THE SCOPE AND DEFINITION OF QUALIFIED 
MAJORITY VOTING (QMV).  REACTING TO AMBASSADORS' QUESTIONS 
ABOUT PESSIMISTIC MEDIA REPORTS OF THE IGC MEETING, BOTH 
PATTERSON AND CONMY SUGGESTED THAT THE MEDIA WAS FOCUSING ON 
(AND EXAGGERATING) INDIVIDUAL CONCERNS OF MEMBER STATES AND 
DID NOT REFLECT THE CONTINUING POLITICAL WILL TO GET THE DEAL 
DONE WHICH THE IRISH STILL SEE REFLECTED IN THE IGC MEETINGS 
AND WHICH PRIME MINISTER AHERN WAS FINDING IN HIS TOUR OF 
CAPITALS. BOTH EXPRESSED CONFIDENCE ABOUT SUCCESS IN JUNE. 
 
COUNTER-TERRORISM FOLLOW-UP CONTINUING 
------------------------------------- 
 
4.  COMNY THEN REVIEWED THE GAERC CONCLUSIONS ON ESDP, 
WESTERN BALKANS, EU-RUSSIA AND EU-LATIN AMERICA SUMMIT 
PREPARATIONS, MEPP AND IRAQ.  HE NOTED THAT NATO SECRETARY 
GENERAL DE HOOP SCHEFFER ATTENDED THE MONDAY LUNCHEON WITH 
DEFENSE MINISTERS, EXPRESSED SATISFACTION WITH THE RESULTS OF 
THE MAY 4 QUARTET MEETING, AND PRAISED THE FACT THAT 
FOLLOW-UP ON THE EU'S COUNTER-TERRORISM DECLARATION HAS BEGUN 
WITH EU MEMBERS REVIEWING THEIR CAPABILITIES TO PROVIDE 
ASSISTANCE TO ANY VICTIM OF A TERRORIST ATTACK UNDER THE 
SOLIDARITY CLAUSE. 
 
BURMA - HARD ROAD AHEAD 
----------------------- 
 
5.  UNDER ANY OTHER BUSINESS, COMNY EXPRESSED DEEP 
DISAPPOINTMENT WITH THE FAILURE OF BURMA TO RELEASE AUNG SAN 
SUU KYI OR MAKE ANY OTHER EXPECTED POSITIVE GESTURES AND SAID 
THAT A SPECIAL PRESIDENCY ENVOY (JOHN CAMPBELL) WOULD SOON 
BEGIN A TOUR OF ASEM COUNTRIES TO DISCUSS THE ISSUE OF BURMA 
AND ASEM ENLARGEMENT IN A MORE DIFFICULT ATMOSPHERE THAN HAD 
BEEN ANTICIPATED. 
 
6. COMNY ALSO NOTED THAT DENMARK AND SWEDEN HAD PROPOSED AN 
ITEM ON INTERNATIONAL RULE OF LAW AND THAT THE COMMISSION HAS 
BEEN ASKED TO CONSULT EU MEMBERS ON HOW BEST TO "PROMOTE THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A RULES BASED INTERNATIONAL ORDER." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
DESPITE SOME QUITE OBVIOUS BUMPS IN THE ROAD, AS REFLECTED IN 
THE MEDIA REPORTING OF THE GAERC/IGC MEETING, THE IRISH HERE 
CONTINUE TO EXPRESS CONFIDENCE THAT THE DEAL WILL GET DONE, 
ECHOING IRISH FOREIGN MINISTER COWEN'S PUBLIC COMMENTS 
FOLLOWING THE MEETING. THE ODDS ON SUCCESS MAY BE 
LENGTHENING, HOWEVER. 
KENNY