US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS2180

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002180 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/UMB, EUR/ERA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2009 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, UP, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU-UKRAINE:  CONDITIONING ENHANCED TIES ON 
ELECTIONS 
 
Classified By: USEU POLOFF LEE LITZENBERGER; REASONS 1.5 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C)  Summary.  After a delay due to internal EU friction, 
the EU hopes to complete negotiation on an "Action Plan" for 
Ukraine in time for the July EU-Ukraine summit.  The plan 
will list political and economic reforms that Ukraine will 
undertake, in return for reciprocal EU steps to bring Ukraine 
closer to Europe.  The EU has placed one overarching 
condition on implementing the plan once it is agreed:  that 
Ukraine's presidential elections must pass the smell test, 
and media freedom must be respected.  If Ukraine meets this 
test, the EU is prepared to offer enhanced cooperation of 
security issues, more and better assistance, and the 
possibility for an enhanced relationship that would bring 
Ukraine one step closer to potential EU membership.  End 
Summary. 
 
2.  (C)  According to the EU Council Secretariat's Senior 
Ukraine analyst, there were "no surprises" at the May 18 
EU-Ukraine Cooperation Council meeting in Brussels.  Our 
contact, Sofia Moreira de Sousa (protect), said the main 
topic of discussion was the EU's new "European Neighborhood 
Policy," which envisages joint development of an "Action 
Plan" to bring Ukraine closer to the EU.  The EU also pressed 
Ukraine to increase its border control cooperation with 
Moldova. The Ukrainian delegation was led by Prime Minister 
Yanukovych; the EU side was chaired by Irish FM Cowen. 
 
Internal EU friction puts Action Plans on hold 
------------------ 
3.  (C)  At the May 18 meeting, Ukraine received (at its 
request) a briefing on the EU's recently-approved 
Neighborhood Policy, the elaboration of which had put on hold 
earlier negotiations on a joint Action Plan for moving 
Ukraine closer to EU norms.  The European Commission had 
begun "Action Plan" negotiations earlier this year with both 
Ukraine and Moldova, conducting three rounds of talks and 
providing an initial draft to both countries but not, 
importantly, to EU member states.  Ukraine and Moldova each 
began to approach member states, lobbying for changes in the 
Commission's draft.  This prompted member states, some of 
whom were surprised to learn the details of the Commission's 
proposals from Ukraine and Moldova, to put both sets of 
negotiation on hold, pending elaboration by member states of 
an agreed "strategy" for negotiating the plans.  The new 
strategy, adopted in April, emphasizes the importance the EU 
will place on democracy, human rights, and political reform, 
as well as trade liberalization, in the Action Plans. It also 
provides for the EU Presidency and Council Secretariat 
(representing member states) to participate in the 
negotiations. 
 
Putting the Action Plan back on track 
------------------------ 
4.  (C)  With an agreed strategy now in place, the EU now 
wants to move ahead with the Action Plan for Ukraine.  Many 
EU member states are pushing to wrap up negotiations on the 
plans for both Ukraine and Moldova in time for the upcoming 
EU-Ukraine summit in July.  The Netherlands, who will be in 
the Presidency then, are among the states pushing to complete 
the Action Plan by then.  This doesn't leave much time -- to 
meet the July deadline, as the Action Plan will need to be 
approved by EU Ministers at their June 14-15 meeting.  The EU 
plans to hold its next round of negotiations on the Action 
Plan during the first week in June.  Getting broad agreement 
on the plan by the summmit in July would allow formal 
adoption of the Action Plan in September -- before Ukraine's 
presidential elections in October. 
 
EU to offer incentives 
--------------- 
7.  (C)  According to Moreira, the Action Plan will list a 
series of steps the EU expects Ukraine to take, coupled with 
steps the EU would take to integrate Ukraine more closely 
with the EU.  There will not be any explicit linkages or quid 
pro quos in the Action Plan, nor will Ukraine be allowed to 
"cherry pick" the steps it takes, or the EU response. 
However, the menu of incentives the EU can offer include: 
 
--  Closer ESDP (security) cooperation, including EU use of 
Ukraine airlift capability (a key objective for Ukraine), 
training for Ukrainian police deployed in Macedonia, and 
"crisis-management" coordination; 
--  Technical assistance in counter-terrorism and trafficking 
of persons; 
--  Increased, or targeted assistance for Ukraine 
--  Exchange of experts to facilitate harmonization of 
legislation; 
--  Border security assistance; Ukraine wants EU help in 
developing software to enhance data protection. 
What Ukraine wants: A deal on Airlift 
------------------ 
6.  (C)  Ukraine is interested in all of the above, Moreira 
said.  In particular, it hopes to nail down an agreement for 
providing airlift capacity for EU military deployments.  This 
is something Moreira said the EU can deliver -- providing 
Ukraine earns it.  The EU is also holding out the possibility 
that, if Action Plan implementation proceeds smoothly, it can 
offer a yet-to-be elaborated "Enhanced Neighborhood 
Agreement" that would involve closer ties than the current 
"Association Agreement" but still be a step short of 
candidacy for EU membership.  One element of such an enhanced 
relationship could be some kind of facilitated visa 
arrangement with Ukraine. 
EU focus:  Elections and Media Freedom are Fundamental 
------------------------- 
7.  (C)  All of the above incentives, though, are dependent 
on Ukraine holding free and fair elections and respecting 
media freedom, Moreira said.  She claimed the EU has 
consistently sent the message that performance on these 
issues is the sine qua non for moving ahead with any elements 
of an action plan.  This was the message delivered at the 
April 29 ministerial with Ukraine, and it was reiterated May 
18, both publicly and privately.  Moreira said these issues 
are key; the EU cannot "lose face" on this.  Member states 
will not move ahead with implementation of the Action Plan in 
the face of blatant manipulation of the media and press. 
 
Comment 
------- 
8.  (C)  The EU's decision -- at least in its own mind -- to 
condition implementation of the Action Plan on how the 
upcoming elections are handled reflects the uncommon but 
welcome introduction of some hard-nosed skepticism in EU 
policy.  This will make it easier for us to coordinate our 
approach to Kiev in the run up to the elections.  Given the 
GOU's blatant manipulation of the recent mayoral election in 
Mukacheve, though, it is not clear that the EU's message has 
registered fully in Kiev. 
 
SCHNABEL