US embassy cable - 04HARARE843

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000843 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER, D. TEITELBAUM 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
DS/OP/AF 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, PINR, ASEC, ZI, MDC, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: ZANU-PF WRESTS MP SEAT FROM MDC IN RURAL 
BY-ELECTION 
 
REF: HARARE 790 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: Along with Harare based diplomats from ten 
other countries, Poloff observed a May 15 - 16 parliamentary 
by-election in the rural Matabeleland North district of 
Lupane -- a traditional MDC stronghold.  ZANU-PF narrowly won 
the seat by a margin of over 800 votes in an election 
characterized by a lower level of violence but widespread 
intimidation.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) ZANU-PF candidate Martin Khumalo polled 10,069 votes 
to the MDC candidate Njabuliso Mguni's 9,186 for a total of 
19,255 votes cast, or about 40 percent of the 48,134 
registered voters.  In the 2000 and 2002 parliamentary 
elections the MDC polled about 14,500 votes, whereas ZANU-PF 
polled 3,300 in 2000 and 7,778 in 2002.  Total votes cast for 
the two parties was 17,739 in 2000, and 22,302 in 2002. 
 
Campaign Messages 
----------------- 
 
3. (C) Poloff attended ZANU-PF rally in Zwangendaba on May 14 
in which Minister without Portfolio Elliot Manyika said (in 
Shona) that the government allowed you to kill white people 
if they tried to take your farm.  Manyika also criticized the 
UK and US for being the worst human rights abusers in the 
world, sponsoring the MDC, and trying to take back farms.  A 
subsequent speaker gave detailed instructions, and threats, 
on checking in with ZANU-PF list holders who would be 
positioned about 150 yards from polling stations.  He said 
those who did not check in would be "dealt with".  About 260 
presumably non-voting secondary school students, and another 
100 adults attended the rally.  The Vice-President, other 
Ministers, and ruling party MPs all descended on Lupane 
giving speeches at other rallies in the week before voting. 
 
Violence 
-------- 
 
4. (U) A generally lower level of direct violence 
characterized the pre-election period, but both parties 
reported a handful of attacks on their supporters by members 
of the other party (Ref). 
 
5. (U) MDC officials reported that war vets handcuffed, beat 
and harassed an MDC youth member in Lupanda on May 13, and 
attacked an unnamed MDC polling agent also on May 13.  Police 
were still holding that polling agent on May 14. 
 
6. (U) MDC officials said that in the evening of May 13, 
about twenty ZANU-PF youths attacked MDC campaign 
headquarters with stones.  MDC youths threw stones back and 
repelled the attackers. 
 
7. (U) On May 11 police arrested MDC Matabeleland North 
Provincial Chairperson Morgan Komichi and eighteen other MDC 
supporters at the Lupane business center after the MDC 
members confronted ZANU-PF supporter Ntombikayise Maphosa. 
According to the MDC, Maphosa was ripping down MDC posters, 
but ZANU-PF officials said she was hanging ZANU-PF posters. 
ZANU-PF officials said that MDC members attacked Maphosa with 
an axe.  Police in Lupane said they did not think Maphosa 
sustained axe wounds but rather was injured as she scrambled 
under a vehicle to evade the MDC members. 
 
8. (U) ZANU-PF officials said that on May 12 four MDC youths 
attacked Sandra Ncube as she returned home from a ZANU-PF 
rally in Siziphile. 
 
Intimidation 
------------ 
 
9. (U) MDC officials said that on May 13, ZANU-PF supporters 
visited the Mshope family shop and residence late at night, 
threatened Mrs. Mshope, and damaged and looted the shop.  The 
Mshopes had both campaigned for MDC candidate Mguni. 
10. (U) On May 12 police arrested forty-four MDC members on 
their way to a rally in Tshotsholo.  MDC officials said some 
were beaten, forty were released without charge, and four 
were charged with a weapons offense for carrying slingshots. 
 
11. (U) According to MDC officials, on several occasions 
ZANU-PF youths disrupted MDC rallies by chanting slogans or 
organizing a mini ZANU-PF rally near the scheduled MDC one. 
MDC officials said that hundreds of suspected ZANU-PF youth 
militia members were deployed to Lupane in the weeks before 
voting to threaten and harass residents, sometimes camping in 
or around polling stations. 
 
12. (C) According to ZANU-PF officials, on May 13, MDC youths 
threatened village headman Mutunzi Mutusanzi allegedly for 
supporting ZANU-PF. 
 
Voting Days 
----------- 
 
13. (C) Over this vast rural constituency with only a few 
tarred roads there were forty-four stationary polling 
stations, and about eleven mobile polling stations.  Each of 
the mobile stations covered four consecutive locations over 
the two days of voting.  Poloff and other diplomats observed 
assisted voting of young people (a tactic used by ZANU-PF to 
guarantee its votes), ZANU-PF campaign posters posted near 
and around polling stations, ZANU-PF officials taking down 
names of voters outside polling areas before and after 
voting, government vehicles being used to ferry voters to 
polling stations, and voters waiting at prospective mobile 
polling sites.  At one polling station where assisted voting 
was proceeding, the presiding officer asked Poloff to leave. 
Zimbabwe Elections Support Network, (ZESN -- an independent 
local NGO), officials were not seen at any of the mobile 
polling stations.  MDC officials reported that war vets were 
present at a few polling stations, and disrupted voting at at 
least one.  Police removed war vets from two polling stations. 
 
Comment: 
-------- 
 
14. (C) By organizing and often threatening village headmen 
to instruct residents to vote ZANU-PF; by spreading rumors 
that the government would carry out a second Gukurahundi 
(massacre) on residents of Lupane; by influencing police to 
selectively arrest and beat MDC supporters; and by deploying 
hundreds of youth militia members, the ruling party 
successfully created a threatening overtone for this 
election.  Having garnered only 18 - 25 percent of the vote 
in previous elections, ZANU-PF had the statistical odds 
stacked against it.  Through superior organizing and its 
usual tactics it nonetheless managed to wrest the Lupane seat 
from the MDC.  This result brings ZANU-PF to within two seats 
of the two-thirds parliamentary super-majority needed to 
amend the constitution.  Convicting any of the numerous MDC 
MPs facing criminal charges could result in further MDC 
parliamentary seats becoming open for election in the coming 
months. 
 
15. (C) Minister Manyika's comments on killing white people 
who might try to take back the land made little sense in an 
entirely communal area with no commercial farms, no resettled 
farms, and no resettled farmers. 
SULLIVAN