US embassy cable - 04GUATEMALA1241

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 001241 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN WHA/PPC AND DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, CVIS, GT 
SUBJECT: GANA-FRG VOTE STIRS CONTROVERSY 
 
REF: 03 GUATEMALA 1908 
 
Classified By: Acting PolCouns Erik Hall, for reason 1.5 (b&d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  Reaction by the opposition, civil society 
and press has been fiercely negative to a perceived GANA-FRG 
alliance which on May 15 gave the GANA control over the 
Permanent Commission which controls Congress during the 
summer recess.  The GANA turned to the FRG after some of its 
own members (in the Patriot Party) refused to support the 
GANA's candidates for the commission.  The break provoked 
speculation (as yet unconfirmed) that the Patriot Party (PP) 
would pull out of the GANA; that the Governability Pact 
between the GANA and non-FRG opposition was over; and that a 
fuller GANA-FRG alliance is in the offing.  The skirmish over 
the Permanent Commission could affect prospects for passage 
of high-priority fiscal reforms during the Congressional 
recess.  It may also affect  Congressional consideration of 
other issues of USG interest.  End Summary. 
 
Permanent Commission Maneuvers 
------------------------------ 
 
2.  (U) The regular Congressional session ended on May 15 and 
will resume on August 1.  To convoke an extraordinary session 
to debate pending fiscal reforms, on May 14 Congress took up 
the issue of appointing a Permanent Commission composed of 
the President of Congress (Rolando Morales, of the UNE); two 
of Congress' five current secretaries, drawn by lot; and two 
other members, to be approved by a vote of the plenary.  When 
the GANA and FRG moved for a vote on the last two positions 
(GANA deputies Jorge Mendez Herbruger and Hector Perez, both 
of the "M-17" faction loyal to President Berger), Patriot 
Party members walked out of the plenary.  They accused GANA 
leader Ricardo Saravia of reneging on a promise to submit PP 
deputy Gudy Rivera Estrada for nomination with Herbruger.  On 
May 15, the Herbruger-Perez slate was elected by the plenary 
with 83 votes in favor (including the FRG, GANA, minus the 
PP, and some independent votes).  President of Congress 
Morales later announced that the two Permanent Commission 
members drawn by lot were Otoniel Fernandez (UNE) and Jose 
Conrado Garcia (GANA). 
 
Berger-Rios Montt Dialogue 
-------------------------- 
 
3.  (U) President Berger met with GANA party leaders, 
including Patriot Party leader Otto Perez Molina, on May 17. 
The agenda reportedly included the congressional controversy 
over his private dialogue with FRG leader Efrain Rios Montt, 
which recently became public. 
 
4.  (SBU) Since March 8, Rios Montt has been under a court 
order to remain in Guatemala pending the investigation of his 
involvement in the organization of demonstrations July 24-25, 
2003, popularly known as "Black Thursday" and "Friday in 
Mourning."  Nevertheless, as party leader, Rios Montt has 
maintained a regular, private dialogue with President Berger 
and has also met occasionally with other opposition party 
leaders.  These secret meetings have recently become public 
and were confirmed by both Berger and Rios Montt.  On May 12, 
Rios Montt put in a rare appearance in Congress, and 
commented publicly on the GOG's proposed fiscal reform 
package, saying the FRG was "open to dialogue to achieve 
agreements on this issue."  The next day, the courts 
tightened the house arrest order against Rios Montt, 
restricting him and six other suspects from leaving their 
homes without permission of the court. 
 
5.  (U) The reaction to the news of the May 15 vote was 
strongly negative.  PAN leader Lionel Lopez Rodas, accused of 
accepting diverted public funds during the campaign, declared 
that "now we know who is with the FRG."  Human rights leader 
Orlando Blanco speaking on behalf of the civil society group 
"Collective of Social Organizations," denounced the Rios 
Montt-Berger "negotiation of taxes in exchange for impunity" 
and demanded that Berger rescind any agreement made.  Press 
editorials lamented GANA-FRG cooperation and accused the 
Government of believing the end justifies the means. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (C) It is unclear whether the GANA's tactics on the 
Permanent Commission were calculated to rid the coalition of 
the uncooperative Perez Molina, and whether they will 
succeed.  It is conceivable to us that Berger and his 
loyalists now view Perez Molina as a political liability (due 
to disappointing results against crime) or a political 
threat.  Always a controversial figure, Perez Molina has 
embedded his own loyalists in positions of authority in the 
institutions he oversees as GOG Security Commissioner 
(Ministry of Government, Defense, National Civilian Police 
and the Immigration Directorate).  If Perez Molina does 
withdraw the Patriot Party from the governing coalition, the 
GANA will lose eight Congressional votes, making passage of 
the fiscal reforms all the more difficult, and potentially 
affecting other Congressional issues of USG interest, 
including CICIACS and Article 98. 
 
7.  (C) Facing the challenge of a fractious coalition and 
Congress, Berger chose to team with the FRG to advance 
crucial fiscal reforms.  That pragmatism came with some 
political cost.  The harsh reaction by the press and civil 
society to news of the Berger-Rios Montt dialogue and May 15 
vote reflects partisan (anti-FRG) sentiment in those sectors. 
 In weighing further cooperation with the FRG, the Berger 
government will be sensitive to the risk of further damage to 
its credibility with these sectors, and is therefore more 
likely to court ad-hoc alliances than any exclusive 
arrangement. 
HAMILTON