US embassy cable - 01HARARE1620

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001620 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 05/07/11 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PINS, ZI 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION WINS MASVINGO MAYORAL ELECTION 
 
REF:  A) HARARE 1584   B) HARARE 1556 
 
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CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING.  REASONS: 1.5 
B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (U) THE CANDIDATE FOR THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC 
CHANGE (MDC) OVERCAME A CONCERTED CAMPAIGN EFFORT BY THE RULING 
ZANU-PF, INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT LEVELS OF VIOLENCE AND 
INTIMIDATION (REFTELS), TO WIN THE MASVINGO MAYORAL ELECTION MAY 
12-13.   THE MDC'S ALOIS CHAIMITI, A RETIRED ENGINEER, RECEIVED 
4,532 VOTES, WHILE 2,188 VOTES WENT TO JACOB CHADEMANA OF ZANU- 
PF.  THE THREE INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES WERE ONLY A MINOR FACTOR, 
POLLING 664 VOTES AMONG THEM.   ONLY SOME 7,000 PEOPLE OUT OF 
27,000 REGISTERED VOTERS CAST THEIR BALLOTS, WHILE MORE THAN 
3,000 VOTERS WHOSE NAMES DID NOT APPEAR ON THE VOTERS ROLL WERE 
TURNED AWAY.  CHAIMITI, ZIMBABWE'S FIRST MDC MAYOR, PLEDGED TO 
WORK COOPERATIVELY WITH THE NINE ZANU-PF REPRESENTATIVES AND ONE 
INDEPENDENT ON THE CITY COUNCIL FOR THE BETTERMENT OF MASVINGO. 
 
MDC'S REACTION 
-------------- 
 
2.  (U) THE MDC LEADERSHIP WAS UNDERSTANDABLY ELATED AT THE 
OUTCOME.  PARTY PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI TOLD JOURNALISTS THE 
PEOPLE OF MASVINGO HAD SENT A CLEAR MESSAGE THAT "THOSE PARTIES 
THAT RELY ON VIOLENCE IN THEIR QUEST FOR PUBLIC OFFICE ...HAVE NO 
PLACE IN THE NEW DEMOCRATIC DISPENSATION...NEVER AGAIN SHOULD THE 
PEOPLE OF ZIMBABWE LEGITIMIZE VIOLENCE."  THE MDC'S NATIONAL 
DIRECTOR OF ELECTIONS, PAUL THEMBA NYATHI, SAID THE RESULTS 
DEMONSTRATED THAT ZIMBABWEANS WANT POLITICAL CHANGE.  "THIS 
SHOWS," NYATHI INSISTED, "THAT THE PEOPLE OF ZIMBABWE ARE NOW 
AWARE THAT THE POWER TO CHANGE IS IN THEIR HANDS." 
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REACTION OF GOVERNMENT AND ZANU/PF 
---------------------------------- 
 
3.  (U) SAMUEL MUMBENGEGWI, ZANU-PF CHAIRMAN FOR MASVINGO 
PROVINCE AND NATIONAL MINISTER OF EDUCATION, SPORTS, AND CULTURE, 
BLAMED THE LOSS ON MDC-PERPETRATED VIOLENCE, WHICH HE SAID HAD 
SCARED THE RULING PARTY'S SUPPORTERS AWAY FROM THE POLLS, AND ON 
THE ALLEGEDLY POOR STATE OF THE VOTERS ROLL.  THE GOVERNMENT'S 
CHIEF PROPAGANDIST -- INFORMATION AND PUBLICITY MINISTER JONATHAN 
MOYO -- DISMISSED THE MDC VICTORY, SAYING WHAT REALLY MATTERED 
WAS THAT THE CITY COUNCIL REMAINED IN ZANU-PF'S HANDS. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
4.  (C) WE WERE NOT SURPRISED AT THE LARGE PERCENTAGE OF VOTERS 
WHO STAYED AWAY FROM THE POLLS, GIVEN THE TENSE POLITICAL 
ATMOSPHERE WHICH PRECEDED THE ELECTION.  IN CONTRAST TO THE 
HISTORICAL PATTERN, HOWEVER, ZANU-PF DID NOT BENEFIT THIS TIME 
FROM THE LOW VOTER TURNOUT.  THE FACT THAT THE MDC RECEIVED 8,000 
FEWER VOTES IN MASVINGO THAN IT DID IN THE JUNE 2000 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION, WHILE ZANU-PF'S TALLY DECREASED BY FEWER 
THAN 1,000 VOTES, IS LIKELY NOT A REFLECTION OF ERODING SUPPORT 
FOR THE OPPOSITION PARTY.  RATHER, MANY MASVINGO RESIDENTS -- THE 
MAJORITY OF WHOM WERE CLEARLY MDC SUPPORTERS -- TOLD A VISITING 
EMBASSY OFFICER THAT IT WAS NOT WORTH RISKING POSSIBLE 
RETALIATION TO VOTE IN THE MAYORAL RACE.  INSTEAD, THEY WERE 
BIDING THEIR TIME UNTIL THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, WHEN THEY 
PLANNED TO CAST THEIR BALLOTS FOR THE PRIZE WHICH REALLY 
MATTERED.  IN THE SHORT TERM, THE MASVINGO OUTCOME WILL BOOST THE 
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MORALE OF MDC SUPPORTERS NATIONWIDE, WHO WILL SEE THAT VICTORY IS 
POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE FACE OF INTENSIVE INTIMIDATION, AND 
INDICATES THAT THE MDC MIGHT HAVE THE UPPER HAND FOR NOW IN THE 
PROVINCE THAT BOTH MAJOR PARTIES CONSIDER CRUCIAL TO THEIR 
PRESIDENTIAL RACE PROSPECTS. 
 
IRVING 
 
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