US embassy cable - 04QUEBEC79

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 QUEBEC 000079 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/CAN FOR BREESE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  5/17/2009 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, CA, Elections 
SUBJECT: QUEBEC FEDERAL ELECTION PREVIEW 
 
REF: OTTAWA 1249 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: susan keogh, consul general, Quebec, State. 
REASON: 1.5 (B) 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: susan keogh, consul general, Quebec, State. 
REASON: 1.5 (B) 
 
1.  Confidential - entire text. 
 
2.  (C)  Summary:  Politicians and pundits in Quebec from all 
persuasions were remarkably consistent on the prospects of the 
Liberals, Bloc Quebecois and Conservatives in the upcoming 
federal elections in recent conversations with DCM Kelly and CG 
Keogh.  The forecast was for a big win for the Bloc, around 50 
seats, barring complete voter fatigue on the subsidies scandal 
and holiday apathy among youth that is generally pro-Bloc. 
Currently, the Liberals trail the Bloc by 15 percent in Quebec. 
None of our interlocutors thought the Conservatives would win 
any seats although Stephen Harpers' command of French made him a 
favored candidate in a French debate. 
There was general consensus, even from Liberals, that PM Martin 
would head a minority government.   End Summary. 
 
--------------------- 
BACKGROUND 
--------------------- 
3. (C)  During DCM Steve Kelly's visit to Quebec City May 12-14, 
we did the rounds of provincial political figures as well as 
media, academic and other pundits to discuss the federal 
elections, expected to be announced May 23.   From whatever side 
of the political spectrum, the views were remarkably consistent 
on the prospects of the Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc 
Quebecois.  Uniformly, commentators thought there would be a 
minority Liberal Government in Ottawa, including Jean Pelletier 
(please protect), formerly Jean Chretien's Chief of Staff and 
recently fired from ViaRail because of the subsidies scandal. 
Following is a snapshot of Quebec opinion as the parties gear up 
for federal elections. 
 
----------------------- 
LIBERAL PARTY 
----------------------- 
4.  (C)  To the extent that Paul Martin is looking for help from 
Quebec, he cannot expect much. The federal Liberals have taken a 
steep tumble in all the polls since the unraveling of the 
subsidies scandal.  Their current standing is at 30 percent. 
The scandal has left Quebecers, particularly francophones, more 
disaffected and less likely to participate in the election. 
Opposition leader Bernard Landry said Quebecers were not so much 
disgusted or angry but rather felt scorned ("mepriser") by the 
actions of federal politicians. 
 
5.   (C)   The current doldrums of Jean Charest's provincial 
Liberals does not mean that federal Liberal candidates will shun 
the PLQ.  Provincial Minister for Municipal Affairs Jean-Marc 
Fournier said that federal candidates did want the PLQ to turn 
out for them and this would happen, despite PLQ discomfort over 
the scandal and discontent over federal interference in 
provincial jurisdictions like municipalities (naturally, a view 
not shared by beneficiary Mayor Jean Paul L'Allier).    There is 
also the sticking point on fiscal imbalance.  It probably gets 
down to personal contacts.  Liberal MNA Margaret Delisle 
commented that the 50-year separation of the federal and 
provincial parties had never precluded campaign support.   She 
clearly plans to help her friend Helene Scherrer, Minister of 
Canadian Heritage, on the hustings. 
 
6.  (C)   Most of our interlocutors gave Helene Scherrer,  the 
only Quebec City MP in the Cabinet, little hope of getting 
reelected, although Margaret Delisle was hedging her bets. 
Based on the "all politics is local" dictum, the "demerger" 
movement may be a factor negatively affecting Scherrer's 
campaign.  Voters in towns and cities amalgamated into 
megacities in Quebec January 2002 have the chance to vote in a 
referendum on whether to withdraw.  Jean-Marc Fournier said the 
demerger debate is impacting federal candidates, in that some 
are being forced to give opinions on this emotional neighborhood 
issue.  While the demerger referendum is distinct from the 
federal elections, there may be some spillover in terms of voter 
fatigue as the referendum will occur on June 20. 
 
7.  (C)  In addition, the election is sandwiched between 
Quebec's Jean-Baptiste Day June 24 and the Canada Day July 1, 
when everyone is in holiday mode.  Mario Dumont pointed out that 
the well-organized Liberal machine could profit by getting its 
generally older supporters to the polls.    Television 
journalist Pierre Jobin observed that with the arrival of summer 
and the end of the school year, television viewing goes way down 
among younger voters, so that they are likely to pay less 
attention to campaign issues and the elections. 
--------------------------------- 
CONSERVATIVE PARTY 
--------------------------------- 
8.  (C)  With the appropriate caveats, none of our contacts gave 
the Conservatives much chance of winning any seats in Quebec. 
The consensus was they have little organization on the ground 
and barely any candidates.  Head of the Action Democratique du 
Quebec Mario Dumont underscored the Conservatives' lack of depth 
and difficulty in finding people to stand for them.  He cited 
one example of a candidate who was being billed as being a 
former ADQ official: Dumont said the man had been a steward on 
the ADQ bus during the last provincial elections, and had been 
fired for incompetence. 
 
9.  (C)  Nonetheless, Stephen Harper in his personal capacity 
received a number of  positive comments.  Harper has made a 
surprisingly strong impression among Quebec's "thinking public" 
because of his confident, attractive persona and good command of 
French.  Many commented he was more bilingual than Paul Martin, 
whose French is perceived as halting and lacking in spontaneity. 
 Several commentators thought Westerner Harper would do better 
than Quebecer Martin in a French debate, if there were one. 
 
10. (C)   Some people said Harper's mindset was much too 
conservative for Quebecers, but others countered that in his 
visits to Quebec, Harper had muted "more extreme" views (i.e. 
more out of step with Quebec's progressive attitudes) on social 
issues such as abortion and homosexuality.   One dissenting note 
was from Jean-Marc Fournier, Minister of Municipal Affairs, who 
found Harper to be lacking warmth.    Mario Dumont opined that 
Harper uses his visibility in Quebec - with or without seats - 
to leverage votes in Ontario.  His campaign in Quebec has 
enhanced his image as a "country-wide" candidate.  Dumont also 
thought the Conservatives were hoping for a big Bloc Quebecois 
gain as a hedge against a Liberal majority. 
 
------------------------- 
BLOC QUEBECOIS 
------------------------- 
11.  (C)  Views on the prospects of the Bloc Quebecois also were 
relatively consistent.  The subsidies scandal had been a 
godsend.   Former Deputy Minister of International Relations 
Diane Wilhelmy, who retired from government service May 15, 
characterized it as "manna from heaven."  Before the scandal 
broke, the Bloc had been dying and was considered increasingly 
irrelevant.  Voters had a "Three times elected and what have 
they done for us?" attitude.   Gilles Duceppe was considered a 
one-note leader.   Now, almost everyone gave the Bloc excellent 
prospects in the election, with estimates of around 50 seats of 
a total 75, although Margaret Delisle cautioned they had gone 
way up and would come down somewhat by June 28.  Currently the 
polls give the Bloc 45% of the vote. 
 
12. (C)    Bernard Landry made the generational case: younger 
voters favor the Parti Quebecois and by logical extension the 
Bloc.   But as a number of our contacts noted, this does not 
take into account the timing of the election in mid-holiday 
season, along with the perennial difficulty of getting out the 
youth vote.  Mario Dumont also commented that the polls showing 
45-plus percent support in Quebec for sovereignty - the first 
article of both the PQ and BQ constitutions - was misleading. 
The three bases for sovereignty have been: threats to the French 
language, unequal job opportunities, and lack of political 
leverage.  All three have been overcome.  The Quebec identity 
has already been won, de facto, Dumont asserted.   The Bloc has 
capitalized on the subsidies scandal but is not providing a 
vision for the future.  Dumont thought that after a few weeks on 
the campaign bus, the press would be sick of hearing about 
misuse of taxes and would want some new ideas. 
 
13.  (C)  Comment:  The Bloc is riding high in Quebec at the 
moment .  The formerly fading party began its electoral campaign 
May 15, without waiting for Paul Martin to blow the whistle. 
The platform is not new: a "Quebec Model" social agenda, 
regional development, and "Quebec's place in the world" 
(including opposition to the war in Iraq and BMD). The Bloc's 
new slogan "Un parti propre au Quebec," which could mean either 
"A clean party" or "Quebec's own party" is a double entendre 
allusion to the federal Liberal scandals.   Dumont may be right: 
although the Bloc will certainly do well, it could lose some 
support if its campaign hammers on the misuse of federal taxes 
when health is clearly the most important issue for Quebecers. 
While the Conservatives still have poor organization here, we 
found it interesting that Harper is widely perceived to be more 
effective in French, and in debate, than PM Martin, giving 
himadded credibility. 
 
 
KEOGH-FISHER