US embassy cable - 01HARARE1585

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001585 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION (C-NA1- 
00316) 
 
REF: A) STATE 73228, B) HARARE 1495, C) HARARE 930, D) 
 
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00 HARARE 5951 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) BELOW ARE EMBASSY HARARE'S RESPONSES TO REF A 
TASKING QUESTIONS: 
 
A.  (C) IT IS OUR ASSESSMENT THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE IS NO 
LONGER SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING A DEAL WITH THE OPPOSITION 
MDC THAT WOULD INCLUDE HIS EARLY RETIREMENT.  (REF D 
SUGGESTED THAT LATE LAST YEAR MUGABE PUT OUT FEELERS TO 
THE OPPOSITION FOR SOME KIND OF POWER-SHARING OR 
RETIREMENT DEAL.)  WE BELIEVE THAT IF THE MDC LEADERSHIP 
APPROACHED MUGABE NOW WITH SUCH AN OFFER, HE WOULD 
PROBABLY REJECT IT OUT OF HAND.  MUGABE IS DETERMINED TO 
WIN ANOTHER TERM AND IS CONVINCED HE CAN DO IT. 
MASVINGO "SUPREMO" EDDISON ZVOBGO TOLD US MAY 10 THAT 
THE ONLY THING THAT WOULD INDUCE MUGABE TO LEAVE OFFICE 
EARLY WOULD BE FOR A NUMBER OF PROMINENT ZANU-PF 
STALWARTS TO PUBLICLY STAND UP TO MUGABE AND TELL HIM HE 
MUST GO.  IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, WE FIND THIS 
SCENARIO HIGHLY UNLIKELY.  IN ADDITION, WE CANNOT 
CONCEIVE OF ANY CONDITIONS THAT MUGABE WOULD VOLUNTARILY 
ACCEPT THAT WOULD INDUCE HIM TO ABANDON HIS RE-ELECTION 
BID.  HOWEVER, ZANU-PF IS STILL DIVIDED OVER THE 
DESIRABILITY OF RETAINING MUGABE AS ITS CANDIDATE.  THE 
SMALL COTERIE OF HARDLINERS SURROUNDING MUGABE, SUCH AS 
INFORMATION MINISTER MOYO AND VICE-PRESIDENTS MSIKA AND 
MUZENDA, WISH TO SEE MUGABE RUN AGAIN, BUT MANY IN THE 
PARTY BELIEVE IT WILL BE ZANU-PF'S UNDOING.  REFORM- 
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MINDED MEMBERS, SUCH AS FINANCE MINISTER MAKONI AND 
FORMER HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER DUMISO DABENGWA, WOULD 
UNDOUBTEDLY LIKE TO SEE MUGABE BOW OUT OF THE RACE, AND 
WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT BEFORE 
OR AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. 
 
B.  (C) WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY CREDIBLE REPORTS OF 
MUGABE ACTIVELY MOVING PERSONAL OR STATE ASSETS OUT OF 
THE COUNTRY.  IN FACT, MUGABE HAS NEARLY FINISHED A NEW 
MULTI-MILLION-DOLLAR MANSION -- MOSTLY FINANCED BY ZANU- 
PF -- IN THE BORROWDALE SUBURB OF HARARE, A SIGN HE 
INTENDS TO STAY FOR SOME TIME.  ON THE OTHER HAND, LATE 
LAST YEAR, WE WERE TOLD BY INDEPENDENT SOURCES THAT 
FURNITURE BELONGING TO THE PRESIDENT WAS SEEN BOXED UP 
AT HARARE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT EN ROUTE TO EITHER LIBYA 
OR EUROPE.  THIS STORY FALLS IN THE CATEGORY OF RUMOR, 
HOWEVER, AND IS NOT A FIRM INDICATION OF MUGABE 
INTENDING TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY PERMANENTLY.  WE DO HEAR 
STORIES OF SENIOR GOVERNMENT AND PARTY OFFICIALS LOOKING 
FOR SCHOOLS IN THE U.S. INTO WHICH THEY CAN PLACE THEIR 
CHILDREN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS, AN INDICATOR THAT 
THEY THINK THE SITUATION WILL WORSEN.  TO PAY FOR THIS, 
THERE MUST BE SOME ASSET MOVEMENT OUT OF THE COUNTRY. 
IN ADDITION, THE BRITISH AIRWAYS FLIGHTS TO LONDON ARE 
ALWAYS FULL, AND PEOPLE BOARDING THEM SEEM TO BE IN 
POSSESSION OF MUCH MORE THAN ORDINARY LUGGAGE. 
 
C.  (C) AS FOR THE MDC, IT CONTINUES TO ACTIVELY 
CAMPAIGN FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, BUT IN A MORE 
LOW-KEY STYLE, AND IT TAKES PAINS TO AVOID ANTAGONIZING 
ZANU-PF (SEE REFS B AND C FOR DETAILS ON THE MDC'S 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  01585  111109Z 
STRATEGY.)  IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THE MDC WOULD REACT TO A 
MUGABE VICTORY:  MANY IN THE PARTY STILL HAVE NOT 
SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED THIS POSSIBILITY AND THERE DOES NOT 
YET APPEAR TO BE A CONTINGENCY PLAN IN PLACE. 
 
IRVING 
 
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