US embassy cable - 01HARARE1584

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001584 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 05/07/11 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PINS, ZI 
SUBJECT: MASVINGO TENSE AS CITY BRACES FOR MAYORAL 
ELECTION 
 
REF:  HARARE 1556 
 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  01584  01 OF 02  111109Z 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING.  REASONS: 1.5 
B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) THE VIOLENCE REPORTED REFTEL HAS CONTINUED 
UNABATED IN MASVINGO TOWN IN THE RUNUP TO THE MAYORAL 
ELECTION MAY 12-13, WITH CONTINUING SKIRMISHES BETWEEN 
SUPPORTERS OF THE RULING ZANU-PF AND THOSE OF THE 
OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC). 
ACCORDING TO THE INDEPENDENT "DAILY NEWS," ZANU-PF 
MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT AND WAR VETERAN LEADER CHENJERAI 
"HITLER" HUNZVI IS CIRCULATING WITH AN AK-47 RIFLE, 
ACCOMPANIED BY OTHER ARMED WAR VETERANS, AS HE 
SUPERVISES THE LATEST CHAPTER IN THE GOVERNMENT'S 
ONGOING TERROR CAMPAIGN AGAINST OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS. 
GANDI MUDZINGWA, PERSONAL ASSISTANT TO MDC PRESIDENT 
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI, TOLD POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF ON MAY 
11 THAT POLICE HAVE ESTABLISHED A HEAVY PRESENCE ON 
ALL ROADS INTO MASVINGO, AND ARE SEARCHING ALL 
VEHICLES CARRYING MORE THAN FIVE PASSENGERS.  A SENIOR 
POLICE OFFICIAL IN MASVINGO CONFIRMED TO JOURNALISTS 
THAT SOME POLICE OFFICERS WERE BEING INVESTIGATED FOR 
PARTICIPATING ACTIVELY IN ZANU-PF'S "CAMPAIGN TEAMS." 
 
2.  (U) ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS REPORTEDLY ORDERED ALL 
BUSINESSES IN TOWN TO CLOSE ON MAY 10 SO THAT WORKERS 
COULD ATTEND CAMPAIGN RALLIES ADDRESSED BY VICE- 
PRESIDENTS SIMON MUZENDA AND JOSEPH MSIKA, AND OTHER 
SENIOR ZANU-PF OFFICIALS.  ONE BUSINESSMAN CONDEMNED 
THE ACTION, SAYING "IT IS IRRATIONAL FOR A PARTY TO 
ORDER THE CLOSURE OF ALL BUSINESSES WHEN THE ECONOMY 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  01584  01 OF 02  111109Z 
OF THE COUNTRY IS AILING."  ANOTHER SAID HE HAD BEEN 
THREATENED BY WAR VETERANS WITH DEATH IF HE DID NOT 
CLOSE SO HAD HAD NO OTHER CHOICE.  MEANWHILE, 18 MDC 
SUPPORTERS APPEARED IN COURT ON MAY 11 ON CHARGES OF 
INCITING VIOLENCE AND WERE RELEASED ON BAIL, WHILE 
FOUR REMAINED IN DETENTION BECAUSE THEY HAD VIOLATED 
PREVIOUS BAIL RESTRICTIONS.  ACCORDING TO PRESS 
REPORTS, NOT A SINGLE ZANU-PF SUPPORTER OR WAR VETERAN 
HAS BEEN ARRESTED OR CHARGED IN CONNECTION WITH THE 
VIOLENCE WHICH HAS MARRED THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF THE 
MAYORAL CAMPAIGN, ALTHOUGH FOLLOWERS OF BOTH OF 
ZIMBABWE'S LARGEST PARTIES HAVE BEEN INVOLVED IN 
SKIRMISHES. 
 
3.  (C) LONGTIME ZANU-PF POLITICIAN EDDISON ZVOBGO -- 
WHO HAILS FROM MASVINGO PROVINCE AND RETAINS 
SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE THERE -- PREDICTED TO CHARGE ON 
MAY 10 THAT NEITHER ZANU-PF NOR THE MDC WOULD WIN THE 
MAYORAL ELECTION.  RATHER, INDEPENDENT FEMIAS 
CHAKABUDA WAS THE BEST-KNOWN CANDIDATE IN MASVINGO AND 
WOULD  LIKELY BE THE VICTOR.  CURRENTLY HEAD OF THE 
CITY'S TAXPAYERS' ASSOCIATION, CHAKABUDA HAD 
LONGSTANDING TIES TO ZANU-PF AND HAD SERVED ON THE 
CITY COUNCIL FOR TWENTY YEARS, BUT LEFT THE RULING 
PARTY IN DISGUST A YEAR AGO TO JOIN THE MDC.  HE HAD 
INTENDED TO RUN ON THE MDC TICKET FOR MAYOR, BUT HIS 
CANDIDACY WAS NIXED BY THE PARTY'S NATIONAL 
LEADERSHIP, WHICH DISTRUSTED HIM BECAUSE OF HIS 
PREVIOUS POLITICAL AFFILIATION.  CHAKABUDA THEN 
DECIDED TO STAND AS AN INDEPENDENT. 
 
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4.  (C) ZVOBGO TOLD CHARGE THAT HE HAD TURNED DOWN A 
REQUEST FROM VICE-PRESIDENT MSIKA TO CAMPAIGN FOR THE 
ZANU-PF CANDIDATE.  HE POINTED OUT THAT HE HAD BEEN 
ACTIVELY INVOLVED IN EVERY ELECTION IN MASVINGO SINCE 
INDEPENDENCE, SO HIS STANDING ON THE SIDELINES IN THIS 
CASE WAS IN ITSELF A TELLING STATEMENT.  A ZANU-PF 
LOSS IN THE MAYORAL ELECTION, ZVOBGO ANTICIPATED, 
WOULD SEND A POWERFUL MESSAGE TO THE RULING PARTY'S 
OLD GUARD THAT THEY CAN NO LONGER "IMPOSE" CANDIDATES 
AND LEADERS ON THE ZIMBABWEAN PUBLIC.  THE PEOPLE OF 
MASVINGO, ZVOBGO SAID, ARE "ENORMOUSLY DISENCHANTED" 
WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE, WHO COULD LOSE THE PROVINCE IN 
THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
5.  (C) WE ARE NOT SURPRISED BY THE FERVOR WITH WHICH 
ZANU-PF AND THE MDC ARE CONTESTING THIS MUNICIPAL 
ELECTION.  THE POLITICAL STAKES ARE VERY HIGH IN 
MASVINGO, WHICH MOST OBSERVERS CONSIDER THE KEY 
BATTLEGROUND PROVINCE IN NEXT YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION.  AS WE INDICATED IN REFTEL, ZANU-PF WANTS TO 
PROVE IT CAN CARRY AN URBAN AREA, AND THE WINNING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ8135 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  01584  02 OF 02  111109Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DINT-00  DODE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01 
      TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01 
      NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00 
      ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /010W 
                  ------------------EA50DA  111109Z /38 
P 111117Z MAY 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8851 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 001584 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 05/07/11 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PINS, ZI 
SUBJECT: MASVINGO TENSE AS CITY BRACES FOR MAYORAL 
ELECTION 
 
PARTY WILL TRUMPET A VICTORY AS PROOF THAT IT HAS THE 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  01584  02 OF 02  111109Z 
MOMENTUM HEADING INTO 2002.    IF, HOWEVER, ZVOBGO IS 
RIGHT ABOUT THE OUTCOME -- AND HE KNOWS THE POLITICAL 
LANDSCAPE IN MASVINGO BETTER THAN ANY OTHER ZIMBABWEAN 
POLITICIAN -- NEITHER PARTY WILL BE ABLE TO CLAIM IT 
HAS THE UPPER HAND AFTER THIS WEEKEND'S VOTING. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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