US embassy cable - 04ANKARA2744

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002744 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, TU 
SUBJECT: EU ANKARA OFFICE PREPARING KEY REPORT 
 
 
Classified by Polcouns John Kunstadter; reasons 1.4 b and d. 
 
 
1. (C) Summary: The EU Commission office in Ankara is 
preparing the first draft of a report that will guide the 
Council when it reviews Turkey's candidacy at the December 
Summit.  Contacts say the report -- to be released September 
29 -- will significantly influence the Council's decision, 
though it is not clear whether it will include an explicit 
recommendation on whether to open accession negotiations with 
Turkey.  The report will provide examples of meaningful human 
rights reform in areas such as freedom of speech, but will 
also point out chronic problems such as religious freedom and 
Kurdish cultural rights, and note that some adopted reforms 
have not been implemented.  Ankara-based European diplomats 
predict the EU in December will decide to open negotiations. 
End Summary. 
 
 
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Report Due Out Sept. 29 
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2. (U) The Turkey Representation of the EU Commission is 
preparing the first draft of the 2004 Regular Report on 
Turkey, which will express the Commission's view of where 
Turkey stands in its efforts to meet the Copenhagen Criteria 
for EU membership.  The Regular Reports are not binding on 
the EU Council, but they can influence the Council's decision 
on whether to open accession negotiations with a candidate 
country.  This year's Turkey report is scheduled to be 
released September 29, just before a new Commission takes 
office in Brussels.  The EU Council will determine at the 
December Summit whether to set a date to begin accession 
talks with Turkey. 
 
 
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Report Will Influence Council 
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3. (C) The Regular Reports provide a score sheet on the 
accomplishments and shortcomings of candidate countries as 
they enact human rights reforms required for EU membership. 
They also may include an explicit recommendation to the 
Council on whether to open accession talks with a candidate 
country.  Given the controversy in Europe over Turkey's 
candidacy, many of our contacts among Eurodiplomats say their 
governments will look to the Commission's report to provide 
political cover for whatever decision the EU makes at the 
Summit.  Some, however, believe the Commission will avoid 
making a clear call on whether Turkey should be offered a 
negotiation date, leaving the Council alone to take the heat 
for whatever decision it makes. 
 
 
4. (C) Martin Dawson, head of the Political Section of the 
Commission's Turkey Representation, told us the decision on 
whether to make an explicit recommendation to the Council 
will be made in Brussels at the top levels of the Commission, 
ultimately by Enlargement Commissioner Verheugen.  Dawson 
said Verheugen has given ambiguous signals about his 
intentions, stating that the Commission will make a 
recommendation, while also saying the recommendation "is not 
limited to a black or white decision."  If the Commission 
does make a clear recommendation, it is likely to have a 
strong influence on the Council in December.  The Council 
went against Commission recommendations when it agreed to 
accept Greece as a member in 1981.  However, that was before 
the establishment of the Copenhagen Criteria; membership 
standards are more stringent today.  Moreover, the Council 
came to regret its decision on Greece; the early years of 
Greek membership were a disaster that no one wants to repeat, 
Dawson said. 
 
 
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GOT's Record Mixed 
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5. (C) Any recommendation in favor of opening accession talks 
with Turkey will have to be based on concrete progress toward 
meeting the accession criteria, Dawson said.  Though 
strategic arguments about Turkey's importance will influence 
European leaders at the Summit, they will not serve as the 
formal basis for a decision.  "Talking about Turkey as a 
bridge between East and West, etc., will not wash with the 
Turkey skeptics," he said.  The Regular Report will provide 
plenty of fodder for both Turkey's critics and supporters. 
It will reflect GOT success in adopting legislative reforms, 
while also pointing out areas where needed reforms have not 
been enacted, or where the bureaucracy has blocked 
implementation.  Sema Kilicer, political officer at the EU 
Commission Representation, is responsible for compiling the 
information on Turkey's performance.  She said freedom of 
speech is one of the areas where Turkey will earn high marks. 
 The GOT has enacted a number of amendments relaxing speech 
restrictions, and there has been a notable decrease in 
arrests and prosecutions for speech crimes.  Religious 
freedom, however, is one of the areas where Turkey has made 
little progress.  In particular, non-Muslim groups continue 
to face harassment from police and local authorities and have 
difficulty establishing places of worship.  Turkey also faces 
problems in the area of Kurdish cultural rights.  Though 
Kurdish language schools have opened under the recent 
reforms, there are still no Kurdish-language broadcasts 
despite legal amendments removing restrictions.  Still, 
Kilicer said, none of the successful candidate countries were 
in 100 percent compliance with the Copenhagen Criteria when 
they began accession talks.  Council members in December will 
look for elements of the Regular Report that support the 
political decision they want to make on Turkey. 
 
 
6. (C) EU Commission officials and member-state diplomats in 
Ankara almost uniformly believe Turkey will be offered a 
negotiation date in December.  Our GOT interlocutors also 
tell us they have been getting increasingly positive EU 
signals of late.  A number of European diplomats have told us 
there is talk in the EU of setting a date to begin accession 
talks with Turkey, while at the same time stating that Turkey 
will have to enact further political reforms before becoming 
a full member.  A Dutch diplomat told us this concept 
reflects the EU's mixed feelings about Turkey.  Many fear 
that a refusal to set a negotiation date could derail the 
GOT's human rights reform efforts.  But the EU traditionally 
shifts its focus to economic issues once accession talks 
begin, so by setting a date the EU could lose its ability to 
press for political reforms.  A contact in the Irish Embassy 
opined that such attempts to find a middle ground between 
"yes" and "no" will amount to little.  Turkey has earned 
enormous credit for its efforts in support of a Cyprus 
settlement.  The EU in 2003 agreed that if Turkey met the 
criteria in December 2004 the EU would open negotiations 
"without delay."  The Council, he predicted, will be 
compelled to start negotiations.  Once Turkey starts on that 
path it will be held to the same standards as the 10 nations 
that acceded on May 1. 
 
 
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Comment 
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7. (U) Though the views of our contacts about Turkey's EU 
prospects are encouraging, we recognize that they may be out 
of touch with political developments in Europe.  It does 
appear that Turkey's EU candidacy has gained significant 
momentum with European governments.  At the same time, we are 
aware that European public opinion is highly skeptical.  We 
continue to stress with GOT contacts that success in December 
is not assured, and to urge them to continue the reform 
effort in order to bolster Turkey's case. 
 
 
EDELMAN