US embassy cable - 04GUATEMALA1213

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 001213 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR DRL: DANIKA WALTERS, WHA/CEN AND WHA/PPC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM, PGOV, GT 
SUBJECT: EXECUTIVE RALLIES BEHIND CICIACS 
 
 1.  This is an action request.  See para 8. 
 
2.  (SBU) Summary:  President Berger has taken the first step 
to salvage the GOG-UN agreement to create a UN Commission to 
Investigate Clandestine Groups (CICIACS) by convincing the 
Congressional leadership to withdraw the agreement to the 
Executive before a planned plenary vote.  By pulling the 
agreement before a vote, the Executive is now free to 
resubmit it to Congress after it has been renegotiated with 
the UN.  The GOG's strategy for getting the agreement 
implemented is not yet entirely clear, making it difficult to 
predict its ultimate outcome or timing.  What is clear is 
that the Berger Administration is intent on giving CICIACS 
another try in some form.  A recent visit by UN A/SecGen 
Prendergast and positive statements by President Berger, Vice 
President Stein, Attorney General Florido and others have 
helped tip the balance in favor of a modified CICIACS 
agreement.  End Summary. 
 
3.  (U) On May 11, President Berger formally requested that 
Congress return CICIACS to the Executive without a plenary 
vote, which would have certainly been negative following 
negative votes in the Human Rights and Government 
Commissions.  The Ambassador had convinced CICIACS' main 
opponent in Congress, Antonio Arenales Forno of the FRG, to 
permit the move.  The Congressional plenary, in a quick and 
informal roll-call on May 12, ratified the Congressional 
leadership's consent to the President's request without 
opposition.  As a result, the Executive will be able to 
renegotiate the agreement with the United Nations and 
resubmit it to Congress without delay. 
 
4.  (SBU) Visiting United Nations Assistant Secretary General 
Kieran Prendergast met with the Ambassador and European 
diplomats on May 10 to discuss the state of play on CICIACS. 
According to Prendergast, Vice President Stein has formed a 
task force which will make recommendations to him on how to 
proceed toward CICIACS implementation within two weeks.  The 
task force's mandate includes developing a strategy and 
proposal for changes to the agreement, to be negotiated with 
the UN.  The composition of a later commission to oversee the 
implementation of these proposals for the GOG is still 
undecided.  Presidential Human Rights Commissioner Frank 
LaRue told HROff on May 11 that the GOG would likely 
renegotiate some points of the agreement with the UN, send it 
to the Constitutional Court for an opinion on 
constitutionality (to head off Congressional criticism), and 
re-submission for consideration by Congress. 
 
6.  (SBU) President Berger commented publicly on May 11 that 
"CICIACS must work in tandem with the Public Ministry, but 
not be a part of it.  If that is unconstitutional, they 
should work together."  Taking his cue from the President, 
Attorney General Juan Luis Florido publicly supported a 
renegotiated CICIACS for the first time on May 11, saying 
"the Public Ministry would accept a proposal which 
strengthens it," but said any new agreement must "subordinate 
CICIACS to the Public Ministry."  Florido has quietly opposed 
CICIACS up to now, but changed his tune after meeting with 
Prendergast and UN Senior Political Officer Martha Doggett. 
In a meeting with the DCM on May 12, Florido implied that 
relatively minor textual changes would be needed to win his 
support.  He indicated that he believed those changes would 
also be acceptable to the UN.  In addition, Sergio Morales, 
Human Rights Ombudsman, spoke to the UNE bench May 12, urging 
the deputies to vote in favor of CICIACS when it returns to 
Congress to further the fight against organized crime. 
 
7.   (SBU) Comment:  CICIACS ultimate fate depends on the 
Berger/Stein Administration's political will and skill. 
After Congress' initial setback, President Berger and Vice 
President Stein have taken the first step towards 
resuscitating CICIACS.  However, CICIACS remains in limbo 
while the GOG task force is formed and comes up with its 
strategy.  We expect that strategy to include renegotiation 
with the UN of aspects of the agreement relating to the 
relationship with Florido's Public Ministry.  To pass 
Congress, the new text must address constitutional concerns 
of the FRG's Arenales and/or Security Commissioner Otto Perez 
Molina, leader of the Patriotic Party, a member of the ruling 
GANA coalition.  Final passage will be fiercely opposed by 
clandestine interests themselves, which are believed by LaRue 
to be using money to lobby against it in Congress.  It is 
still too early to know what timetable will emerge from the 
Executive for CICIACS' implementation. 
 
8.  (SBU) Action Request.  Embassy requests that DRL and WHA 
hold obligated funds for CICIACS until the timetable for 
implementation is more clear.  In the meantime, we will alert 
the GOG that USG funding is time-bound, and report subsequent 
developments. 
HAMILTON