US embassy cable - 04SANTODOMINGO2925

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SANTO DOMINGO 002925 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA AND DRL;NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
LABOR FOR ILAB; USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD;TREASURY FOR 
OASIA-LAMONICA 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, DR 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #48: SCENESETTER FOR MAY 16 
PRESIDENTIAL VOTE 
 
 
1.  (SBU) Following is number 48 in our Dominican elections 
series: 
 
Scenesetter for May 16 Presidential Vote 
 
Celebrations and Movement 
 
Santo Domingo was the scene on successive days this week of 
tumultuous street rallies for the three major presidential 
candidates.  The atmosphere was that of a fiesta, appropriate 
for a country that usually turns in a voter participation 
level of between 75 and 80 percent.   By law, campaign 
activities end on Friday, May 14.  The country is on election 
holiday from midday, Saturday, May 15, through Monday, May 17. 
 
Saturday will be a day of extensive movement, as many city 
dwellers return to their places of origin.  International 
observers will be dispersing across the country, as well, 
including some of the 53 volunteers from the U.S. Embassy 
community, duly accredited by the Central Electoral Board 
(JCE) through the OAS observer mission. 
 
Election material has been delivered to municipal electoral 
boards during the week, apparently without major incident. 
Security is provided for the materials, for 134 municipal 
boards, and for 12,000 voting places by the Electoral Police, 
a specially constituted body of some 34,000 police and armed 
forces personnel reporting through an independent chain of 
command directly to the president of the JCE Luis Arias. 
(More than 100 actively serving flag-rank military officers 
have signed a declaration that they will support the 
decisions of the JCE ) more a commentary on the country,s 
pre-election nerves than on the orientation of the military.) 
 
Where We,ll Be 
 
All 53 Embassy and American community OAS-affiliated 
observers received 3 hours of training earlier this week and 
will work in close consultation with OAS regional 
coordinators.  Some will participate in the OAS "quick 
count," which entails only phoning in the results of the 
selected voting place to the OAS office in Santo Domingo. 
Twenty will work outside Santo Domingo.  All are to be 
present at the 6:00 a.m. opening of a pre-selected voting 
place, to circulate for observation in the city throughout 
the day, to make contact with the municipal election board, 
to return to the pre-selected voting place to witness the 
count, to accompany the materials and officials to the 
municipal board and to remain as observer while municipal 
results are transmitted to the JCE computer center in Santo 
Domingo.  They will use OAS forms and reporting channels to 
document their visits and any irregularities encountered; any 
major irregularities or disruptions are to be reported by 
cell phone to one of the senior OAS observers. 
 
An Embassy "Election Coordination Central" will function at 
the DCM residence with a staff ranging from two to six 
persons.  Embassy observers will telephone regularly 
throughout Sunday.  Personnel from the Defense Attache Office 
and the Military Assistance and Advisory Group will be 
stationed at the JCE, at the armed forces HQ, and at Police 
HQ throughout the day. 
 
The Ambassador and Mrs. Hertell will carry out a day-long 
program of visits to polling stations, the JCE, and the 
USAID-funded NGO Participacion Ciudadana.  Canadian, Dutch 
and EU ambassadors have accepted their invitation to join 
this program. 
 
Prospects 
Passions have been high this week and candidates have 
presented themselves as larger than life (for example, at his 
May 12 closing rally President Mejia declared to followers 
that he has now moved into first place).   There have been 
charges and counter-charges among the parties about plans to 
breach the rules, commit fraud, or resort to violence or 
premature declarations.  Our expectation is that the Saturday 
"cooling off" day and the long Sunday voting process 
(described below) will help to cool things down.  The process 
will be well monitored by observers - - some 250 from abroad, 
6,500 from Participacion Ciudadana, and tens of thousands 
from the political parties.  Electoral officials and 
electoral police have been appropriately trained.It is our 
expectation that the JCE will announce a clear result by 
midnight. 
 
Leonel Fernandez goes into the election with a long trail of 
favorable poll numbers, the most reputable and recent of 
which credit him with around 54-59 percent of the intentions 
of the electorate.  Even so, Mejia has surged over past weeks 
to 27-30 percent, in no small part due to his open-handed 
caudillo pork-barrel approach to politics.  Opinions in the 
Embassy are divided - - if we were to make a single 
abstracted prediction, it would probably reduce to a 50-50 
chance for a second round.  Whichever way it goes, we will be 
advising the Department via e-mail on Sunday night.  Events 
on Election Day and on the Monday holiday will shape our 
decision on further immediate reporting. 
 
When Will We Know? 
 
JCE President Luis Arias has cautioned us that the wait may 
be long but that he hopes to make the first call as early as 
10 p.m.  Others are less optimistic. 
 
Regulations issued by the JCE in 1996 prohibit the 
announcement of any results or projections before the JCE 
makes its count public. The results of "quick counts" will be 
compiled by Participacion Ciudadana (approximately an 8 
percent sample, expected to be within 0.1 percent of the 
final result) and by the OAS (30 voting stations, expected to 
be within 1.5 percent of the final result). Each organization 
will deliver the result to the JCE in a sealed envelope. 
Political parties will make their own counts (thus, there is 
considerable tension among them over the prospect of early or 
mistaken celebrations).  The Association of Young 
Entrepreneurs (ANJE) announced its intention to do "exit 
polling" with the assistance of the Gallup Organization, an 
initiative that some have decried as intrusive.  ANJE says 
that it will observe the rules prohibiting early release. 
 
The wait for election returns will depend upon the number of 
irregularities and challenges and would be affected by any 
major disruption of the process.  The JCE program for 
international observers (primarily the representatives of 
other national electoral authorities) features a visit to the 
JCE at 10 p.m. with a press event at 10:30 )but this event 
may feature only commentary, without announcement of returns. 
 
 
For the Record: The Voting Process 
 
Electoral officials for each of the polling stations 
("colegios electorales" or voting tables)  meet at 5:30 a.m. 
on Sunday, May 16, to be identified, registered, and sworn in 
by the presidents of the colegios.  Delegates of the 
political parties and of the civic organization 
"Participacion Ciudadana" present at most colegios will 
present their credentials and will be registered.  Following 
opening and inspection of the equipment and materials, polls 
will open at 6 a.m.  Voters receive numbers in the order of 
their arrival and line up, with men and women in different 
queues.  A redrawing of the voting registers last year has 
reduced the maximum number of voters per booth to 400 from 
the previous 600. 
 
A voter presents his or her national identity card ("cedula") 
for verification.  Both the voter roll and the cedula feature 
a photo.  The voter receives a single-sheet ballot featuring 
the parties and photos of their candidates (parties are 
further identified by their traditional colors; a number of 
minor parties are formally allied to major candidates and 
feature those photos).  The voter retires behind a cardboard 
screen to mark the ballot, then folds it in four and walks 
out to deposit it in the sealed ballot box.  Representatives 
of political parties may challenge individuals as not 
corresponding to the registered voter or for irregularities; 
in these cases, the challenged ballot is sealed and set apart 
for adjudication of the complaint. 
 
Voters whose names do not appear on the rolls are checked 
against the list of ineligible voters first; their names are 
then checked against the general roll and if appropriate they 
are directed to the correct voting place. 
 
Voting continues throughout the day.  Polls close at 6 p.m. 
and anyone in the queue at that time is allowed to vote. 
 
Polling officials and registered observers are present for 
the vote count.  Ballots are emptied onto a table.  They are 
counted and the result is compared with the count of voters 
who passed through the polling station.  Discrepancies are 
recorded; if the ballot box contains more ballots than the 
number who voted, the incident is recorded and by random 
selection a number of ballots are removed to reduce the count 
to the appropriate number.  In such a case, removed ballots 
are burned.  A voting official then opens ballots one by one, 
displaying each one to those present.  He announces the 
result, which is tallied by two other officials on separate 
displays.  After all are counted, the tallies are compared. 
If necessary, discrepancies are resolved.  Vote totals are 
written on a report form, countersigned by all present and 
then covered with transparent adhesive.  Ballots, tally 
sheets and report are sealed in a special bag and other 
materials are packed and sealed.  All are given into the 
custody of the assigned member of the Electoral Police, who 
proceeds with voting officials to the municipal board. 
 
At the municipal board the materials are received, opened and 
receipted and voting officials queue to feed the report form 
into a scanner for electronic encrypted transmission to the 
JCE,s computer center in Santo Domingo, where nationwide 
returns are tallied.  (This is a new procedure, but since the 
OAS observer team convinced the JCE to carry out several test 
runs of the scanning procedures and the computer count, the 
system is expected to perform adequately.) 
 
2.  (U) Drafted by Michael Meigs. 
 
3. (U)  This report and others in our series are available on 
our SIPNET site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/   along with 
extensive other material. 
HERTELL