US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS2107

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 002107 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/ERA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, TU, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EUROPEAN ELECTIONS AND U.S.-EU RELATIONS 
 
REF: A. A) BRUSSELS 1090 
 
     B. B) BRUSSELS 1094 
     C. C) BRUSSELS 1736 
     D. D) LISBON 481 
     E. E) MUNICH 159 
     F. F) BRUSSELS 2061 
 
Classified By: USEU POLOFF TODD HUIZINGA, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  Although most voters in the June 10-13 
European elections will focus mainly on bread-and-butter 
themes such as employment, health care and the like, 
transatlantic issues will also attract attention.  Brussels 
observers expect Iraq to feature more prominently in EU 
member states whose governments supported U.S. military 
intervention.  Other war-on-terrorism issues, such as 
Passenger Name Record (PNR) and Guantanamo, are also expected 
to resonate with some voters.  Some candidates have already 
indicated they will also address a more fundamental question: 
is Europe America's equal partner or a follower?  Another 
issue of key interest to the U.S. -- Turkish EU accession -- 
will play a major role in campaigns in some member states, 
such as Germany and France.  With tensions on Iraq and 
perceptions of U.S. unilateralism running high throughout 
Europe, U.S. Embassies in member states will face a constant 
challenge in getting the public to look at positive 
achievements in transatlantic relations in addition to the 
obvious U.S.-EU differences.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------ 
Series Of Pre-Election Reports 
------------------------------ 
 
2. (U) This is the fourth in a series of reports on the June 
10-13 European elections.  Ref A provides general background 
on the European Parliament (EP) and the European elections; 
ref B is a broad analysis of expected campaign issues and 
election outcomes; and ref C analyzes the possible impact on 
the EP of newcomers from the 10 new EU member states. 
Subsequent telegrams will examine the reelection prospects of 
key parliamentarians (MEPs), and possible post-election 
realignment of EP party groups. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Iraq: Problem for Some U.S. Supporters 
-------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Local Brussels commentators expect Iraq to loom large 
in the political campaigning for the European Parliament. 
Center for European Policy Studies scholar Ben Crum told us 
that campaign debate about Iraq would be most important in 
the EU member states whose governments supported the U.S. 
military intervention despite opposition among voters (see 
also ref D).  Latvian EP observer Boriss Cilevics of the 
Party of European Socialists (PES) agreed, opining that Iraq 
would cause difficulties for pro-U.S. candidates in some of 
the new member states whose governments supported the U.S., 
mentioning specifically the Baltic states and Poland.  EP 
observer Toomas Ilves (PES, Estonia) echoed those sentiments, 
claiming somewhat bitterly that he had "bought all the 
arguments" on Iraq only to find now that the U.S. had "run 
roughshod" over him during the past year. 
 
4. (C) Our interlocutors tell us that in Germany, Iraq may 
spell trouble for the Christian Democratic opposition 
(CDU/CSU) that supported the U.S. effort.  Klaus Welle, EP 
Director-General of Internal EU Policies and an active CDU 
official, said the CDU would try to avoid the Iraq issue.  As 
Welle explained, talking about Iraq "can only get us into 
trouble."  German Chancellor Schroeder's Social Democratic 
Party (SPD) apparently agrees: an SPD poster for the EP 
campaign carries a slogan giving the SPD credit for helping 
make Europe a "Power for Peace."  An SPD campaign website, 
www.europakampa.de, names "strengthening Europe as a power 
for peace" as the first of eight reasons to vote SPD, adding, 
"if the CDU had had its way, there would be German soldiers 
in Iraq today."  MEP and EP Vice President Ingo Friedrich, of 
the Christian Social Union (CSU), the CDU's Bavarian sister 
party, told us that transatlantic relations come up "first 
thing" at almost all of the events he attends with voters. 
His voters' interest, he implied, has been magnified several 
times over by the German-American discord over Iraq. 
 
5. (C) Despite the above, it bears repeating that much will 
vary depending on the candidate and the country.  EP observer 
Magda Kosa Kovacs (PES, Hungary) opined, for example, that 
Iraq would not be a huge campaign issue in Hungary because 
all major parties had agreed on military intervention. 
Similarly, and not surprisingly, UK Conservative MEP Geoffrey 
Van Orden told us the Tories would not criticize UK 
involvement in Iraq, but rather highlight PM Tony Blair's 
lack of openness and trustworthiness in managing UK Iraq 
policy.  Swedish MEP Cecilia Malmstrom of the European 
Liberal Democrats affirmed that Iraq would be a campaign 
issue in the EU, but said that MEPs whose governments had 
been against the war would have difficulty leveraging Iraq 
for vote gains -- especially in France and Germany, she said, 
MEPs of the governing parties were likely to lose votes in 
the European elections for domestic reasons. 
----------------------- 
Europe as Equal of U.S. 
----------------------- 
 
6. (C) It has become a catchphrase among EU elites in 
Brussels -- on both sides of the political spectrum -- that 
the transatlantic relationship, in order to thrive, must be a 
partnership between equals.  Some candidates plan to make 
that idea a major component of their foreign-policy stance 
during their campaign.  German Socialist MEP Helmut Kuhne 
(SPD) told us that a central issue of his campaign will be a 
"question to Europe": does the EU have the political will to 
be an equal partner of the U.S. rather than a follower?  On 
May 7, as part of the kickoff to their campaigns, Dutch 
Greens MEP Joost Lagendijk and his compatriot Jan Marinus 
Wiersma (PES) presented their book, "After Mars Comes Venus: 
A European Answer to Bush."  This book deals with the same 
question that Kuhne asks of Europe, urging the EU to realize 
its potential to become a "civil superpower."  As Lagendijk 
told us, their objective is not to compete with the U.S., but 
to make the EU its equal partner and "critical counterpart." 
Despite assurances to the contrary, the "equal partner" 
slogan often implies the need for Europe to counteract an 
allegedly unilateral and arrogant U.S. 
 
----------------------------------- 
War on Terrorism/U.S. Unilateralism 
----------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Some of our interlocutors, such as Swedish MEP 
Malmstrom, tell us that some narrower U.S.-EU issues will 
also be part of EP campaigns.  Two examples our interlocutors 
mention are the PNR agreement (International Agreement on 
Transfers of EU Passenger Name Records to the U.S. -- see ref 
F) and Guantanamo.  In both areas, many MEPs have been in 
vocal opposition to U.S. policy on human rights grounds -- 
the right to personal data protection (PNR) and the right to 
a fair trial (Guantanamo).  Voters who notice will likely 
place their views within the larger context -- the war in 
Iraq, the fight against terrorism and their perception of 
U.S. unilateralism.  Brussels contacts tell us the Guantanamo 
issue will resonate much more strongly since the Abu Ghraib 
prisoner abuse scandal. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Turkish EU Accession: An Issue with Momentum 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) The issue of Turkish EU accession could be 
particularly prominent in Germany (where, for example, the 
Bavarian CSU has made opposition to Turkish EU membership its 
central campaign theme; see ref E).  But it is expected to 
play a role in other countries as well -- including in 
France, Austria and Italy where we are told center-right and 
conservative parties also intend to campaign against Turkish 
membership.  Both Klaus Welle of the CDU and PES MEP Erika 
Mann (SPD) told us the question of Turkish EU membership 
comes up at virtually every grassroots meeting with voters 
that they attend.  Welle said German voters are worried about 
the implications of Turkish EU membership not only for the 
cohesiveness of the EU, but mainly for the identity of Europe 
as a historically Christian culture.  Although interest in 
the Turkish issue will certainly be mixed and, again, vary 
from country to country and candidate to candidate, its 
possible association in voters' minds with unease about 
immigration, EU enlargement, a clash of cultures with 
Muslims, and the Cyprus problem provides the Turkey issue 
with noticeable staying power and high emotional content. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
COMMENT: TRANSATLANTIC FOCUS LARGELY NEGATIVE 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) According to most of our interlocutors and judging 
from party manifestos, polls and press, the deciding issues 
for most voters will be their domestic government's 
performance on jobs, health care and other bread-and-butter 
issues.  With the focus on what affects voters' everyday 
lives, even the major "European" issues of the season, such 
as the EU constitution or the future of the Stability and 
Growth Pact, are not expected to be central in this European 
elections campaign.  Despite the domestic focus, the question 
of relations with the U.S. will be the single most important 
foreign-policy issue for most Europeans.  With U.S.-EU 
differences over Iraq, and a growing emphasis on the EU as 
"an equal partner," and thus implicitly a counterweight of 
the United States, European voters may focus more on U.S.-EU 
tensions than on positive examples of transatlantic 
cooperation.  Finally, the Abu Ghraib scandal will increase 
attention to the U.S. in a manner that is certain to 
exacerbate ill will.  In this campaign environment until the 
elections at the end of June, U.S. Embassies in member states 
will face a constant challenge in getting the public to look 
at positive elements in transatlantic relations in addition 
to the obvious U.S.-EU differences.  END COMMENT. 
 
10. (C) See USEU website on classified State Intranet at 
http://useu.brussels.state.gov 
 
FOSTER