US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS2102

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 002102 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2014 
TAGS: PREL, RU, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU FMS' MEETING: KEY AGENDA ITEMS AND DEMARCHE 
RESPONSE 
 
REF: STATE 104199 
 
Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reasons 1.4 B/D 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (C) The EU FMs' General Affairs and External Relations 
Council (GAERC) meeting on May 17-18 will devote much of its 
time to Intergovernmental Conference (ICG) debates on the 
draft EU Constitutional Treaty.  Ministers (with their 
Defense colleagues also participating) will also focus on 
ESDP issues, including plans to set up a European defense 
agency and a review of capabilities under the Headline Goals. 
Over lunch, the Foreign Ministers will have a broad 
discussion of the Middle East.  Conclusions will likely track 
with the outcome of the May 4 Quartet meeting, but discussion 
could also cover the situation in Iraq and the issue of abuse 
of prisoners.  The meeting may also decide on new language 
for a non-proliferation clause to finalize an EU-Syria 
Association Agreement and issue Conclusions deploring recent 
death sentences for five Bulgarian nurses in Libya.  Other 
topics for the meeting will be the Western Balkans, with a 
focus on Kosovo, and preparations for upcoming EU Summit 
meetings with Latin America and Russia.  One possible 
additional GAERC topic could be a Danish request to have the 
EU discuss the upcoming roll-over of the UNSC's exemption for 
the US from ICC jurisdiction, although it is not clear that 
EU UNSC members will be interested in having any EU 
constraints put on them.  The EU will also hold meetings with 
Turkey, Ukraine and the Gulf Cooperation Council on the 
fringes of the session. END SUMMARY 
 
2. (SBU) PolOff delivered reftel points to the Council 
Secretariat's US desk and Nick Banner in External Relations 
 
SIPDIS 
Commissioner Patten's cabinet on May 13.  We also attended a 
background briefing on May 14 about the GAERC agenda by Irish 
Perm Rep Anne Anderson. 
 
IGC 
--- 
 
3. (SBU) Anderson and other IGC sources have told us that 
much of next week's FMs' meeting will be taken up by IGC 
negotiations.  The Irish Presidency has made significant 
progress over the last few weeks at the senior officials 
level to resolve many issues, but over a dozen unresolved 
questions remain, and a successful conclusion to the IGC is 
still not guaranteed.  Among key issues FMs will address next 
week are whether the number of issues that would be covered 
by qualified majority voting (QMV) rather than unanimity in 
the Council will be further expanded, and who would chair 
many of the ministerial level Council formations under a new 
treaty.  The biggest remaining IGC issue -- the voting 
formula that would be used for QMV -- will not be addressed 
by FMs.  It will only be addressed at the EU Summit on June 
17. 
 
MIDDLE EAST AND IRAQ 
-------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) Both Anderson and Banner said the GAERC Conclusions 
should track quite closely with the statement from the May 4 
Quartet meeting.  Anderson also noted that the lunch 
discussion of the issues would also cover recent developments 
in Iraq, including the incidents of prisoner abuse.  It was 
not clear what type of language might or might not be 
included in GAERC Conclusions, but Anderson noted that PM 
Ahern had already spoken on behalf of the Presidency about 
"the abuse and degradation inflicted on Iraqi prisoners by 
members of the coalition military forces" as well as the 
killing of civilians by terrorist factions. 
 
ESDP 
---- 
 
5. (U) The joint FMs/DefMins session will be largely an 
opportunity to "take stock" of the overall development of 
ESDP in the past six months, including progress on a variety 
of capabilities efforts including the 2010 Headline Goal, the 
Rapid Response Force and the 2004 Force Catalogue.  The GAERC 
will also take note of proposals by the European Defense 
Agency's Establishment Team, with a view to a formal decision 
to establish the Agency in June and the Agency actually 
beginning its work by the end of 2004. 
 
RUSSIA AND EU NEIGHBORHOOD 
-------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Banner said that the agenda for the EU-Russia Summit 
on May 21 in Moscow has been largely agreed.  The focus will 
be on work toward more detailed and concrete "action plans" 
for setting up the four proposed "common spaces" between the 
EU and Russia.  On Chechnya Banner anticipated "the usual 
discussion" where the EU would express its concerns, with the 
Russians responding "not so politely" that it was none of the 
EU's business, and then go on to raise concerns about 
Russian-speaking minorities within the EU.  On the latter 
issue, Patten had sent a letter to Moscow on May 13 laying 
out all the EU's programs to assist and protect minority 
rights, but the Duma continues to "stir things up." 
 
7. (C) Concerning Russian involvement in Moldova and Georgia, 
Banner commented that reftel points "could be our speaking 
notes."  He acknowledged the EU did not have much of a stick 
available to secure improved Russian behavior, but was 
hopeful Putin might eventually realize the benefits of 
delivering on Moscow's commitments so as to avoid the kind of 
risks that could emerge if these places increasingly become 
"failed states."  Kees van Rij, the Council Policy Unit's 
chief for Russia, told us may 14 the EU would adopt "a more 
active line" on Moldova and that the Irish would likely 
demarche the Russians soon on the need to re-launch 
five-party talk.  Van Rij said they hoped to do this prior to 
the EU-Russia Summit to set the stage for an approach 
directly to Putin. 
 
8. (SBU) Banner said that the EU was pleased that increased 
EU-US coordination in countries such as Moldova, Ukraine and 
Belarus was underway, and said the EC felt that particularly 
in Belarus it appeared to be having some impact.  As for the 
EU's Neighborhood Initiative (which was approved by the 
Commission on May 12, but will only be presented to the 
Council on May 17 without serious discussion), Banner 
observed that extending it to cover the Caucasus was an 
"obvious and necessary political gesture, but it is not 
trouble-free."  There is serious question whether the 
Georgian government has the administrative capacity to 
undertake the legislative approximation and other steps that 
the initiative should eventually encompass.  Therefore, 
assuming the Council approves the Commission proposal to 
bringing the region into the program, the first attempts at 
an action plan with Georgia would "not be very far-reaching." 
 
BALKANS 
------- 
 
9. (U) Anderson noted that the GAERC Conclusions would cover 
several items, including a request to the Commission to begin 
preparing an opinion on Macedonia's EU membership application 
(a process that will take well over a year), and approval of 
the Commission's proposals for "European Partnerships" with 
all of the Balkan states.  Banner and other Council sources 
told us that the only item FMs will probably discuss would be 
Kosovo policy, but it is still to be confirmed whether UNMIK 
SRSG Holkeri will attend this portion of the GAERC. 
 
TURKEY/CYPRUS 
------------- 
 
10. (C) Neither is on the GAERC agenda, but the EU 
Association Council with Turkey will be held on May 18. 
Banner commented that Turkey was "in about as comfortable a 
spot as it can be on the Cyprus issue -- no one is blaming 
it."  Therefore, he said it was a good thing that the GoT now 
appeared focused on continuing internal reforms, although the 
Leyla Zana case had been "a serious setback."  Patten 
continues to be supportive of a positive Commission report on 
Turkey in October, and while "some Commissioners are no 
friends of Turkey", Banner said Patten believed the report 
would be a good one barring some negative event in the 
meantime.  On Cyprus, the Commission is still working on "the 
precise details" of how it can ease trade restrictions, and 
it was unlikely the Greek Cypriots would be obstructive.  But 
more political measures were "harder."  Even a step such as 
opening a Commission delegation in the north posed "legal 
problems." 
 
LATIN AMERICA 
------------- 
 
11. (SBU) Banner noted that different EU Member States held 
different positions on how eager the EU should be about 
regional free trade agreements.  Member States also disagreed 
about how strict the EU's conditionality regarding better 
regional integration should be. 
 
POSSIBLE OTHER BUSINESS: LIBYA, SYRIA, ICC, SUDAN, BURMA 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
12. (C) An unusually large number of "other business" items 
may still possibly be added to the GAERC agenda.  Conclusions 
are likely condemning the recent death sentences in Libya 
for five Bulgarian nurses accused of infecting children with 
HIV.  The GAERC may also try and reach final agreement on a 
non-proliferation clause for the EU-Syria Association 
Agreement currently under negotiation.  Some Member States 
may be interested in raising recent developments in Sudan and 
Burma.  The Danish FM has also suggested the EU should 
discuss its position regarding a possible UNSC roll-over of 
the U.S. exemption from the ICC's jurisdiction under UN 
operations, prior to the issue coming up again in the next 
couple of months in the UNSC.  Banner commented that he 
doubted the EU states on the UNSC would want their margin of 
maneuver on the issue to be restricted. 
 
SCHNABEL