US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN1147

UNCLAS YEREVAN 001147 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN-ESIDEREAS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, AM 
SUBJECT: DIALOGUE CONTINUES BETWEEN OPPOSITION AND 
COALITION 
 
 
1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified, protect accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2. (SBU) Negotiations between Armenia's governing 
coalition and its political opponents have brought a 
temporary lull to their month-long political 
confrontation.  Talks between leaders of the three pro- 
Kocharian parties that make up coalition government and 
the Justice bloc together with the National Unity Party 
(NUP) resumed on May 6 and will continue through May 14 
at the National Assembly.  Although thus far the has 
dialogue yielded no agreement to compromise, both sides 
are keen to demonstrate that they are heeding the 
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) 
recommendation urging the government and the opposition 
to embark on a "dialogue without precondition."  The 
sides, nevertheless, agreed to upgrade the status of 
their ongoing "consultations" to "negotiations," and to 
finalize their agenda.  Both the president and prime 
minister welcomed the resumption of negotiations and 
but noted they would not participate in the talks 
personally.  End Summary. 
 
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NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK 
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3. (SBU) Talks between Armenia's governing coalition 
and leaders of the Justice bloc and NUP began on May 6 
and continued throughout the week.  Negotiations took 
place against the backdrop of a 10-day time-out imposed 
by the opposition on anti-Kocharian rallies in order to 
give government time to ease its crackdown on protest 
participants and opposition supporters.  On May 12 the 
three political parties represented in the cabinet 
suggested negotiations to be held over four main issues 
including amendments to the constitution and electoral 
code, joint anti-corruption efforts and the 
implementation of the recent resolution on Armenia of 
the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe 
(PACE). 
 
4. (SBU) The coalition also agreed to include the 
opposition's issue on "ways to overcome political 
crisis in Armenia resulting from 2003 elections" on the 
agenda if the word "crisis" were replaced by 
"situation."  The official "negotiations" between the 
two sides began May 13 but were cut off almost 
immediately.  Both sides remain keen to show that they 
are following the recommendations for Armenia made by 
PACE on April 28 that urges the government and 
opposition to embark on a "dialogue without 
preconditions."  Both president Kocharian and Prime 
Minister Margarian endorsed a continuation of dialogue 
aimed at defusing political tension, but added that 
they would not participate personally in such talks. 
(Note:  According to reliable press reports, however, 
Margarian met privately with opposition leader and 
former PM Aram Sargsyan early in the week.  End Note.) 
 
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COMMENT:  STILL SOME WAY TO GO 
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5. (SBU) The opposition has already announced they 
would resume their rallies in Yerevan on May 14 (after 
a regional rally in Vanatzor fizzled earlier in the 
week with a turnout of no more than 200) and that they 
will continue to push for Kocharian's resignation 
regardless of the outcome of the talks, making it 
unlikely that the current dialogue will yield any 
immediate agreements.  With the two rival camps 
posturing for the press and remaining divided on the 
opposition's key issue, Kocharian's legitimacy, we 
expect to see only modest movement on some of the other 
outstanding issues over the next several weeks. 
ORDWAY