US embassy cable - 04RANGOON600

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000600 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, BM, NLD, National Convention 
SUBJECT: NLD DECLARES BOYCOTT OF NATIONAL CONVENTION 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 594 (NOTAL) 
 
     B. RANGOON 587 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  The NLD, failing to secure the release of 
party leaders ASSK and U Tin Oo, declared publicly on May 14 
that the party will not attend the SPDC's National 
Convention.  Burma's leading pro-democracy ethnic coalition 
will follow suit.  However, NLD leaders allow that if the 
regime chooses to continue bilateral negotiations, the NLD 
would be prepared to listen.  Given that further 
clarification is unlikely prior to May 17, we advise that in 
the interim the Department continue calls for the release of 
NLD leaders and for all parties to be allowed to participate 
in the reconciliation process, but refrain from direct 
commentary on the National Convention itself.  End comment. 
 
2. (U) The National League for Democracy (NLD), at a dramatic 
May 14 press conference, declared publicly that the party 
will not participate in the SPDC's National Convention, 
scheduled to reconvene on May 17.  The press conference was 
attended by international media stringers, over two hundred 
NLD supporters, numerous ethnic party leaders, and several 
diplomats, including COM and representatives from the 
British, French, German, Italian, and Japanese embassies. 
 
3. (U) NLD Chairman U Aung Shwe read a brief statement at the 
conference and stated that the NLD had strongly desired to 
attend the Convention and had offered the SPDC "minimal 
conditions" for NLD participation.  He said that the NLD had 
achieved an agreement with the regime on the right of 
political parties to choose their own delegates to the 
Convention and made limited progress on allowing debate and 
discussion on substantive portions of the draft constitution. 
 However, he said that SPDC authorities had not clarified how 
they would implement free debate at the Convention, nor had 
they agreed to open NLD offices immediately or release NLD 
Vice Chairman U Tin Oo and General Secretary Aung San Suu Kyi. 
 
4. (U) U Aung Shwe concluded his statement, to thunderous 
applause from party members and supporters, by saying that 
"the NLD does not believe it will be able to benefit the 
nation by participating; therefore, it has been decided that 
the NLD will not attend the National Convention." 
 
5. (C) Following the reading of statement, P/E chief talked 
briefly with Hkun Htun Oo, leader of the SNLD and chairman of 
the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) coalition of 
pro-democracy ethnic parties, who joined a joint UNA-NLD 
meeting after the press conference.  Asked what approach the 
pro-democracy ethnics parties would take to the question of 
participation in the Convention, Hkun Htun Oo stated "the 
same as the NLD." 
 
6. (C) NLD leaders tell us that they issued their statement 
on the basis that registration for the Convention closed 
today, May 14.  However, COM also spoke with NLD CEC members 
U Lwin and U Nyunt Wei who intimated that the NLD was 
engaging in a game of brinkmanship with the regime.  They 
allowed that if the regime signaled its intent to talk over 
the weekend, the NLD would be prepared to listen.  "The 
Convention doesn't begin for three days," said U Nyunt Wei, 
"the ball is now in (the regime's) court." 
 
7. (C) Comment: Although the NLD statement was unambiguous, 
several scenarios could unfold over the coming days.  The 
SPDC will plow ahead with the Convention and has no intention 
of postponing opening ceremonies on May 17.  However, a 
boycott by the NLD and the leading ethnic parties poses a 
serious challenge to the regime's road map.  Authorities 
could respond with a renewed crackdown on the democratic 
opposition (ref A), or they could continue quiet negotiations 
to entice NLD and UNA participation.  Given that further 
clarification is unlikely prior to May 17, we advise that in 
the interim the Department continue calls for the release of 
NLD leaders and for all parties to be allowed to participate 
in the reconciliation process, but refrain from direct 
commentary on the National Convention itself.  End comment. 
Martinez