US embassy cable - 04LILONGWE401

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KWACHA SET TO TUMBLE AFTER ELECTIONS

Identifier: 04LILONGWE401
Wikileaks: View 04LILONGWE401 at Wikileaks.org
Origin: Embassy Lilongwe
Created: 2004-05-13 14:34:00
Classification: CONFIDENTIAL
Tags: EFIN ECON PGOV MI Economic Issues
Redacted: This cable was not redacted by Wikileaks.
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L LILONGWE 000401 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2014 
TAGS: EFIN, ECON, PGOV, MI, Economic Issues 
SUBJECT: KWACHA SET TO TUMBLE AFTER ELECTIONS 
 
 
Classified By: Pol/Econoff Marc Dillard for reasons 1.5 b/d. 
 
1.  (C) Currently trading around 109 to the dollar, Malawi's 
kwacha is set to tumble after next week's elections, Reserve 
Bank of Malawi (RBM) Governor Elias Ngalande told 
Pol/Econoff.  Ngalande speculated that the kwacha will 
quickly depreciate to the range of 120-125. 
 
2.  (C) The RBM, which officially lets the kwacha float, is 
believed to have set an unofficial ceiling of 110 kwacha to 
the dollar in the run-up to the elections.  Smaller, more 
market-oriented foreign exchange bureaus have already 
signaled a depreciation, and there are credible reports that 
major banks are publishing a 108-109 rate in the newspapers 
but executing transactions above the 110 mark. 
 
3.  (C) Ngalande told Pol/Econoff and the British High 
Commissioner that he preferred to manage a gradual 
depreciation after the elections, and to that end, he pitched 
a plan in which the RBM would "borrow" from the High 
Commission's local pound account to push up published reserve 
holdings and (he argued) ward off speculators.  The High 
Commissioner, while sympathetic to the RBM's predicament and 
sensitive to a depreciation's effect on the poor, noted that 
the High Commission's local holdings are "small beer" in 
relation to national foreign exchange needs. 
 
Comment 
------- 
4.  (C) Ngalande's request to the British underscores the 
precariousness of Malawi's foreign exchange situation, as 
well as the political sensitivity of the dollar-kwacha 
exchange rate.  With Malawi's IMF program currently on hold, 
it also adds to the list of challenges the new government 
will face. 
 
BROWNING 

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