US embassy cable - 04BANDARSERIBEGAWAN255

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN 000255 
 
 
DEPT. ALSO FOR S/CPR, AMB. DON ENSENAT 
KABUL FOR JEFF HAWKINS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2011 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, BX 
SUBJECT: TO WED OR NOT TO WED: THAT IS THE ROYAL QUESTION 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR GENE B. CHRISTY.  REASONS: 1.5 B & D. 
 
 1. (C) SUMMARY:  THE CROWN PRINCE, AL-MUHATADEE BILLAH, IS 
EXPECTED TO WED IN AUGUST.  THE ONLY UNANSWERED QUESTION IS 
WHO WILL BE HIS BRIDE.  THE WEDDING IS IMPORTANT.  IT WILL 
ALLOW THE CROWN PRINCE TO START A FAMILY -- AND, WITH LUCK, 
PRODUCE A MALE HEIR.  IT WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A 
TRANSFER OF POWER FROM THE CURRENT SULTAN, ALTHOUGH SUCH A 
CHANGE OF LEADERSHIP IS LIKELY AT LEAST A DECADE AWAY.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) COMMITTES HAVE BEEN FORMED.  THE CROWN PRINCE HAS BEEN 
ELEVATED TO FOUR-STAR GENERAL OF THE ARMY.  HE MAKES ALMOST 
DAILY VISITS TO SCHOOLS, HOSPITALS, AND MILITARY 
INSTALLATIONS, AND LOCAL MEDIA COVER THESE EVENTS SLAVISHLY. 
TOP POSITIONS IN THE NATIONAL SOCIAL HIERARCHY HAVE BEEN 
FILLED.  ALL THIS ACTIVITY POINTS IN ONLY ONE DIRECTION.  THE 
CROWN PRINCE, NOW AGED 32, IS FINALLY GOING TO MARRY.  EVEN 
THE DATE IS PRETTY WELL KNOWN: THE WEEK OF AUGUST 10.  THE 
ONLY QUESTION: WHO'S GOING TO BE THE BRIDE? 
 
3. (C) IN 2003, THERE WERE ACTIVE RUMORS THAT THE CROWN 
PRINCE WOULD WED IN EARLY DECEMBER.  THE BRIDE WAS EXPECTED 
TO BE THE DAUGHTER OF A NON-ROYAL BRUNEI WOMAN AND AN IRISH 
FATHER.  SHE HAD MET THE CROWN PRINCE WHEN THEY WERE STUDYING 
IN THE UK.  NOTHING CAME OF THAT RUMOR REPORTEDLY BECAUSE 
BOTH THE SULTAN AND THE RAJA ISTERI (QUEEN) OBJECTED TO THE 
MARRIAGE.  SOME RUMORMONGERS SAID IT WAS BECAUSE THE YOUNG 
WOMAN WAS A MIXED-HERITAGE COMMONER.  OTHERS WHISPERED THAT 
SHE HAD A CHECKERED PAST, INCLUDING INTIMATE RELATIONS WITH 
SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE ROYAL FAMILY. 
 
4.  (C) MORE RECENTLY, THE RUMORS OF A ROYAL WEDDING IN 2004 
HAVE BECOME MORE CONCRETE.  EARLY RUMORS CLAIMED THAT THE 
CROWN PRINCE HAD, IN AN UNPRECEDENTED WAY, STOOD UP TO HIS 
PARENTS AND DECLARED THAT HE WOULD MARRY THE COMMONER.  NOW, 
HOWEVER, THE STORY MAKING THE ROUNDS OF THE CAPITAL IS THAT 
THE SULTAN AND RAJA ISTERI HAVE FOUND A MORE SUITABLE 
CANDIDATE AND THAT THE CROWN PRINCE HAS ACQUIESCED.  THE 
REPORTED CANDIDATE BRIDE IS THE 18-YEAR OLD DAUGHTER OF A 
PENGIRAN (ROYAL FAMILY RELATIVE) EMPLOYED IN THE PUBLIC WORKS 
DEPARTMENT AND A SWEDISH MOTHER.  NO PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENTS 
HAVE BEEN MADE, NOR IS IT CLEAR WHEN THE MARRIAGE WILL BE 
ANNOUNCED.  (NOTE: THE CURRENT SULTAN'S WEDDING, AT AGE 19, 
WAS ANNOUNCED ONE WEEK BEFORE.  END NOTE) 
 
5. (C) THE CROWN PRINCE'S IMPENDING WEDDING HAS FUELED RUMORS 
THAT THE SULTAN WILL DO WHAT HIS OWN FATHER DID AND RETIRE AS 
SULTAN A YEAR OR TWO AFTER THE WEDDING.  A SENIOR MITSUBISHI 
OFFICIAL FROM JAPAN RAISED THAT SCENARIO UNDIPLOMATICALLY 
WITH MINISTER OF HOME AFFAIRS PEHIN ISA LAST WEEK.  ACCORDING 
TO THE LOCAL MITSUBISHI REPRESENTATIVE (PROTECT), PEHIN ISA 
TOOK THE QUESTION IN STRIDE.  PEHIN ISA RESPONDED THAT THE 
CURRENT SULTAN IS IN VERY GOOD HEALTH AND CONTINUES TO ENJOY 
HIS ROLE AS SULTAN.  HE DISCOURAGED SPECULATION THAT THE 
MARRIAGE MIGHT PORTEND A CHANGE IN NATIONAL LEADERSHIP. 
 
6. (C) COMMENT:  THE CROWN PRINCE'S HEALTH IS NOT GOOD 
(DIABETES AND OTHER PROBLEMS), AND THE ROYAL FAMILY HAS FOR 
SOME TIME ENCOURAGED HIM TO MARRY.  THE PROBLEM HAS BEEN THAT 
HIS SOCIAL LIFE HAS BEEN SO CLOSELY WATCHED AND RESTRICTED 
THAT HE HAS NOT HAD MUCH CHANCE TO MEET ANYONE.  AND NONE OF 
THE COUSINS INTRODUCED TO HIM HAVE WON FAVOR.  THE SULTAN AND 
RAJA ISTERI ARE REPORTEDLY ANXIOUS THAT THE CROWN PRINCE 
PRODUCE A MALE HEIR.  THEY ALSO HAVE REPORTEDLY ENCOURAGED 
HIM TO LOOK FOR A WIFE MORE GENETICALLY REMOVED THAN THEIR 
OWN GENERATION, AFTER MANY ROYAL CHILDREN, INCLUDING THE 
CROWN PRINCE, HAVE SHOWN PHYSICAL AND MENTAL HANDICAPS THAT 
ARE ATTRIBUTED TO INTERMARRIAGE OF BRUNEIAN ROYALS.  THAT 
MAKES THE HALF BRUNEIAN-HALF SWEDISH, BUT ROYAL BLOODED, 
CANDIDATE BRIDE A GOOD MATCH.  MOREOVER, A ROYAL MARRIAGE 
WILL HASTEN THE DAY THE CURRENT SULTAN CAN CONSIDER DOING 
WHAT HIS OWN FATHER DID: RETIRING AND SERVING AS A MEMBER OF 
A DE FACTO REGENCY WHILE CROWN PRINCE BILLAH GETS INTO HIS 
OWN RULING STRIDE.  GIVEN THE SULTAN'S GOOD HEALTH AND 
APPARENT ENJOYMENT OF HIS CURRENT POSITION, HOWEVER, SUCH A 
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS AT LEAST A DECADE AWAY. 
 
7.  (U) KABUL MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. 
 
CHRISTY