US embassy cable - 04ROME1852

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ROME 001852 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MOPS, MARR, IZ, AF, IT, AFGHANISTAN, IRAQI FREEDOM 
SUBJECT: ITALY:  AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ AND NONPROLIFERATION ON 
BUSH-BERLUSCONI AGENDA 
 
REF: A. ROME 1756 
 
     B. STATE 96082 
 
Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION EMIL SKODON 
FOR REASONS 1.5(B)(D) 
 
1. (C)  Summary.  Italy is likely to establish a Forward 
Support Base (FSB) and contribute to the existing US-led 
Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Herat as requested by 
the US (reftel B), according to Prime Minister Berlusconi's 
Diplomatic Advisor Giovanni Castellaneta.  In a May 12 
meeting, Castellaneta told the DCM the Prime Minister is 
inclined to approve the request but is carefully considering 
the timing of such an announcement on the current delicate 
domestic political balance and the situation in Iraq. 
Castellaneta's personal view is that the Prime Minister will 
give the green light for the FSB and PRT but will need to 
delay a formal announcement until the June 28-29 NATO Summit 
in Istanbul.  He said the issue will be on Berlusconi's 
agenda for his upcoming meetings with President Bush. 
Castellaneta and the DCM also discussed Iraq and the GME. 
End Summary. 
 
AFGHANISTAN CONTRIBUTIONS 
------------------------- 
2. (C) In a May 12 meeting with the DCM (accompanied by 
PolMil Officer) on a range of issues, Amb. Castellaneta 
indicated that PM Berlusconi would likely decide to support 
an Italian FSB and PRT in Herat.  A decision is expected very 
soon and Castellaneta said Berlusconi would be ready to 
discuss the issue during his May 19 meeting with President 
Bush.  Italy might need to delay a formal announcement until 
the June 28-29 Istanbul Summit, Castellaneta added, for two 
reasons.  On the internal political front, recent events in 
Iraq have increased the pressure on the government; an 
announcement now to launch a new mission in Afghanistan might 
fuel further criticism, he explained.  Operationally, Italian 
military forces are stretched thin covering Iraq, 
Afghanistan, the Balkans and other missions worldwide.  Italy 
wants the flexibility to be able to send short-term 
reinforcements in the near future if that becomes necessary. 
Our priority is Iraq, Castellaneta said.  If the Iraq 
transition process goes well, Italy will be able to stand up 
the FSB and contribute the PRT in Herat, he said. 
 
3. (C) Castellaneta noted that a recent Italian mission to 
Herat had returned on May 11 with very positive reports. 
Italian officials had met with Iranian representatives, who 
were supportive of an Italian presence in the area. 
Castellaneta said he has also discussed the operation with 
Chief of Defense Adm. Di Paola, who expects to send an 
initial team of 20-40 Italians to Herat.  By the end of 2004, 
that team will expand to 100 persons, increasing to 300-400 
by 2005. 
 
IRAQ 
---- 
4. (C) The DCM asked Castellaneta's views of Iraq transition 
and beyond, including eventual NATO involvement. 
Castellaneta agreed that June 30 is an important opportunity 
to move from Coalition to international community 
participation in stabilizing and developing Iraq. Based on 
recent meetings with Arab leaders, Castellaneta agreed that 
enlarging the Coalition and transfering power to the Iraqis 
smoothly but quickly is important.  Tunisian President Ben 
Ali had told Berlusconi on May 11 that he plans to build 
support for an Arab peacekeeping presence to balance the 
US/European presence in Iraq at the May 21-22 Arab League 
Summit in Tunis.  While Castellaneta thought this might be 
ambitious, he said he had stressed to Ben Ali the importance 
of Arab League unity of support. 
 
5. (C)  Castellaneta confirmed that Italy has always 
supported a NATO role in Iraq, building on its initial 
presence in support of the Polish division.  A request for an 
international force such as NATO made by delegates to an 
Iraqi national conference would make it easier to get full 
support for a NATO mission, he said. That would put any NATO 
decision far into the second half of 2004, given current 
thinking about when the national conference would be held. 
France and Germany might not contribute forces but they would 
likely give tacit support by not actively opposing the idea. 
 
 
GME 
--- 
 
 
6. (C) Castellaneta was positive about the latest GME draft 
for the G8 Summit.  He believed it would be possible to go 
forward with the GME at Sea Island. 
 
NONPROLIFERATION 
----------------- 
7. (C) Castellaneta said Berlusconi might also raise 
nonproliferation issues with President Bush.  During meetings 
last week in Rome, the Chinese Prime Minister told the PM 
that he was very concerned about North Korea's activities and 
the stalled talks.  In addition, Berlusconi might discuss 
Libya's efforts to cooperate on nonproliferation matters, he 
said.  DCM noted that Castellaneta's May 17 meeting with U/S 
Bolton will be another opportunity to review nonproliferation 
matters. 
 
8. (U) Minimize considered. 
 
Visit Rome's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/rome/index.cf m 
 
SEMBLER 
 
 
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 2004ROME01852 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL