US embassy cable - 04RANGOON587

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000587 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, BM, National Convention, NLD 
SUBJECT: NATIONAL CONVENTION SET TO RECONVENE, NLD 
PARTICIPATION UNCERTAIN 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 563 
     B. RANGOON 544 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  According to top NLD leaders, as of May 12 
the SPDC has not responded to NLD "suggestions" put forth two 
weeks ago that would improve the political environment and 
allow the party to attend the regime's forthcoming reconvened 
National Convention.  Registration for the Convention will 
take place on May 13-14, which has given rise to rumors and 
speculation that GOB authorities will respond positively at 
any moment to the NLD suggestions, which include the release 
of party leaders ASSK and U Tin Oo and the opening of party 
offices.  However, there are no visible signs that the SPDC 
intends to respond at all.  NLD officials say they will wait 
until the close of registration on May 14 for a response from 
the regime, at which time the party plans to release a 
statement addressing their participation in the Convention. 
End Summary. 
 
2. (U) On the eve of the registration period (May 13-14) for 
the regime's imminent National Convention, Rangoon is rife 
with rumors and speculation regarding the status of detained 
NLD leaders Aung San Suu Kyi and U Tin Oo, as well as the 
opposition party's intentions with regard to participation in 
the Convention. 
 
3. (C) We met briefly on May 12 with several NLD CEC members, 
including party spokesman U Lwin, Chairman U Aung Shwe, and U 
Nyunt Wei.  The latter reported that the NLD has to date 
heard no response from the SPDC to the party's "suggestions" 
(conditions) for participation in the Convention (ref B).  U 
Nyunt Wei added that the NLD has also received no overtures 
from GOB authorities for a dialogue with NLD leaders on 
Convention issues or other substantive political matters. 
 
4. (C) U Lwin said that the NLD planned to wait until the 
evening of Friday May 14, following closure of registration 
for the Convention, for a response from the SPDC.  At that 
time, with or without a response from authorities, the NLD, 
he said, plans to issue a statement expressing its official 
stance on participation.  U Lwin suggested that the closure 
of registration on May 14 is not the final opportunity for 
the party to decide on participation, intimating that the NLD 
may in fact have additional leeway given that the first three 
days of the Convention (May 17-19) will be reserved for 
sundry ceremonial and housekeeping procedures. 
 
5. (C) U Lwin acknowledged that many pro-democracy ethnic 
political parties were waiting for the NLD to declare a final 
position on participation before making their own 
determinations.  He said that the NLD planned to communicate 
with the ethnic parties at an appropriate time, but the party 
leadership was still deliberating on an appropriate mechanism 
and venue.  U Lwin observed that the NLD would not provoke 
the regime by meeting openly with the leading ethnic 
political coalition, the UNA, whose members included many 
banned parties.  However, he added, the NLD would likely 
convoke the Committee to Represent the People's Parliament 
(CRPP), slightly more palatable to the regime, for a joint 
meeting at NLD headquarters. 
 
6. (C) Comment: According to NLD sources, the party's top 
four leaders (including ASSK and U Tin Oo) met again as a 
group on May 8 and may have also held subsequent meetings. 
Despite U Nyunt Wei's information that GOB authorities have 
not pursued a dialogue with the NLD, there have been reports 
that SPDC envoys continue to meet privately with ASSK. 
Regardless of what meetings may have taken place, there is 
scant information available on the regime's intentions 
regarding the NLD's requests and no visible signs that the 
SPDC is actively preparing to release ASSK or U Tin Oo or to 
allow the NLD to reopen upcountry offices.  End comment. 
Martinez