US embassy cable - 04MANAMA687

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000687 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/ARP AND DRL/PHD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2029 
TAGS: PHUM, PGOV, BA 
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT ARRESTS - A POSSIBLE RESOLUTION IN 
SIGHT? 
 
REF: A. STATE 103009 
 
     B. MANAMA 638 
     C. MANAMA 237 
 
Classified By: CDA Robert S. Ford for reasons 1.5(b)(d). 
 
1.(C) SUMMARY: The government will release the 14 detainees 
arrested for gathering petition signatures if the opposition 
agrees to drop its illegal petition drive.  According to 
Bahraini law, a corporate entity may only submit to 
government a petition signed by the entity's members.  The 
government arrested the petitioners because of allegations 
they were coercing citizens to sign the petition.  The 
detainees are maintaining their hunger strike and small 
demonstrations are being held on their behalf.  One detainee 
was taken to hospital.  The government and the hardline 
opposition are engaged in a dialogue through many 
intermediaries.  They appear to be close to a political 
agreement that could win the detainees' release and mark the 
hard line opposition's formal acceptance of the 2002 
constitution as the law of the land.  That could mark the 
beginning of full participation in Bahrain's democratic 
reform experiment, increasing significantly its prospects for 
success.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.(C) The government arrested petition gatherers because they 
were coercing people who refused to sign the petition with 
threats of shunning, Foreign Ministry Assistant 
Undersecretary for Cooperation and Follow up Shaikh Abd 
al-Aziz bin Mubarak Al-Khalifa told POL/ECON Chief on May 9. 
Shura Council member and human rights activist Faisal Fuladh 
verified to POL/ECON Chief and POLOFF on May 10 that citizens 
had complained to him and other National Assembly members 
about intimidation, and several press reports on coercion 
have been published.  (COMMENT:  The opposition societies 
used similar coercion tactics to enforce their boycott of the 
October 2002.  END COMMENT) 
 
3.(C) Royal advisor Hassan Fakhro and Shaikh Abd al-Aziz told 
us separately that Bahraini law forbids general petition 
drives; a society may only submit to government a petition 
signed by the society's members.  Fakhro said the government 
arrested the signature gatherers specifically because they 
violated this law.  Minister of Industry and royal confidante 
Hassan Fakhro told Charge on May 11 that the Attorney General 
would drop the charges and release the 15 Bahrainis now in 
custody if the four hardline opposition political societies 
agreed in writing to drop their illegal petition drive and 
submit their constitutional amendment requests to the 
parliament. 
 
4.(C) Fakhro told Charge that numerous intermediaries, 
including members of parliament and prominent journalists, 
were facilitating a dialogue between the hardline societies 
and the government.  Face-to-face meetings have also occured. 
 According to Fakhro, the King received pre-eminent Shia 
religious scholars Shaikh Isa Qasim and Sayyid Abdulla 
al-Ghurayfi to help "clear the air."  Fakhro added that the 
King has also offered a meeting with the leaders of the four 
societies if they will drop the petition drive.  Fakhro said 
that al-Wifaq's leaders are unwilling to sign an agreement to 
drop the petition drive to obtain the release of the 
detainees, all of whom are al-Wifaq members. 
 
5.(C) Our local NDI rep advised on May 11 that although he 
did not insert himself into the process, both the government 
and the opposition had approached him for advice and to act 
as an informal intermediary.  He said that opposition leaders 
had refused the initial government demand to sign before the 
Attorney General a letter stating that they would "abide by 
the law of the land."  Our contact said that the Minister of 
the Royal Court accepted the NDI rep's compromise proposal 
that opposition leaders and prominent political figures in 
society who have been trying to defuse the crisis would sign 
such a letter before the King.  The NDI rep noted that this 
would put the leaders of the hard line opposition societies 
on record as accepting the constitution as the "law of the 
land." 
 
6.(C) According to its president, the Bahrain Centre for 
Human Rights (BCHR) has been facilitating small family member 
demonstrations at the Justice Ministry and other public 
locations (police station, Seef Mall).  He verified that an 
attempt to demonstrate in front of the Prime Minister's 
office was prevented by police and the demonstration 
organizer arrested.  Hassan Fakhro told Charge on May 11 that 
the organizer was released from jail on May 10.  The BCHR 
president confirmed that the arrested petitioners remain, as 
of May 11, on a hunger strike.  One was taken to hospital on 
May 9 after he collapsed. 
 
7.(C) COMMENT:  As with February's constitutional seminar 
imbroglio, the government is not handling this situation 
deftly.  Shura Council member Faisal Fuladh belittled the 
government approach, arguing it should have just let the 
societies gather signatures and submit their petition.  The 
government could file it "appropriately" afterward, he noted. 
 To us, government signals to the hardline opposition are 
inconsistent.  The King accepted last fall a 35,000 signature 
petition collected by the National Committee for the Victims 
of Torture.  Most of the singatories were not members of the 
society.  The government has arrested violent demonstrators, 
but released them with no charge or trial.  They arrested 
petition gatherers and charged them with sedition.  The mixed 
signals have confused the opposition; al-Wifaq Human Rights 
Committee Chairman Adel Abbassi disclaimed to POLOFF "we 
don't know how to dance with the government anymore." 
 
8.(C) Despite the confusion, which could very well be 
attributed to Bahrain's inexperience with democracy, the 
government and opposition appear close to reaching a 
compromise that would win the detainees' release.  That 
compromise may also include the opposition's formal 
acceptance of the 2002 constitution as the law of the land. 
Such a political agreement could prove to be the beginning of 
full participation in Bahrain's democratic reform experiment, 
increasing its probability of success.  END COMMENT. 
FORD