US embassy cable - 04SANTODOMINGO2843

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 002843 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA AND DRL 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
LABOR FOR ILAB 
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH 
DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI; USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, DR 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION # 46:  ESTRELLA, WOULD-BE STAR 
 
1. (SBU)  This is cable # 46 in our series on the Dominican 
presidential election: 
 
ESTRELLA, WOULD-BE STAR 
 
------------------------ 
Heading for third place 
------------------------ 
 
In the last week before the presidential election, Reformista 
candidate Eduardo Estrella continues to work the campaign 
trail with the remaining PRSC faithful. Estrella is smart, 
has a good resume, and photographs well, but as a public 
speaker lacks animation, mumbles and rarely rallies the 
crowd.  The deep division of his party and his reluctance to 
promise or rant reinforce long-held expectations that on May 
16 he will place third in a three-horse race. 
 
Estrella will become a factor if there is a second round - 
that is, if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the 
votes on May 16.  He insists he will place second and run 
against Fernandez until June 30. It is more likely that he 
will face the unappealing decision whether or not to throw 
his support behind Mejia or Fernandez. That choice will be 
hard: he will have to decide whether to follow treachery into 
the PLD, to endorse a PRD that he has scorned, or to sit out 
the contest.  In the event of a second round, Mejia will be 
looking to cut a deal with him -- exactly the sort of 
politics that Estrella has rebuffed.  Nonetheless, many of 
our contacts believe he will cast his lot with Mejia. 
 
Estrella's party was plagued from the outset with an internal 
squabble over rival candidate  Jacinto Peynado, VP to the 
late PRSC strongman Balaguer, PRSC presidental candidate in 
2000 and probably the most popular Reformista leader after 
Balaguer's death in 2002. Peynado battled for his party's 
endorsement and continued to fight for it after a PRSC 
primary in 2003 went in favor of Estrella. Peynado, gravely 
ill in Miami over most of the last year, gave up his quest 
for the Palace and said he would not endorse any candidate. 
In February, old-school PRSC leaders Carlos Morales Troncoso, 
Donald Reid Cabral and Leonardo Matos Berrido publicly backed 
Fernandez; in March Peynado changed his mind and followed 
suit.  The PRSC seniors have told emboffs that Fernandez has 
promised "several secretariats" and some "municipal jobs" to 
the former Reformistas. 
 
Estrella, talented but self-effacing, had fame thrust upon 
him when the inner circle from Balaguer's former 
administraton looked for a candidate younger, cleaner, 
healthier and more electable than Peynado.  At lunch with 
Embassy officers late last year, Estrella made small talk and 
left the big picture to his advisors, former Foreign Minister 
Victor Gomez Berges and PRSC political secretary Johnny 
Jones.  Estrella is sensitive and almost painfully shy (even 
his secretary said so in a phone call with EcoPol counselor). 
This quality may appeal to Reformistas, with their reverent 
memories of the engimatic, withdrawn Balaguer who cunningly 
ruled the country for 22 years and left his personal stamp on 
Dominican politics. 
 
Estrella's acceptance of the nomination and his determined 
campaigning show self-mastery and intellectual courage.  He 
has a reputation for honesty and good management, and we tend 
to believe his assertion that "millions and millions of pesos 
went through my hands and not a single peso went into my 
pocket."  Estrella's April 14 comments to the American 
Chamber of Commerce condemning corruption carried weight (see 
text on our SIPRNET site). 
Estrella's billboards show him against a backdrop of PRSC red 
with a tight-lipped, reproachful expression and admonitory 
pointed finger over the slogan, "The country cannot put up 
with this any more!" ("El pais no aguanta mas!")  To his 
disadvantage, most Dominican voters are focused on their 
symptoms of economic distress rather than on domestic 
mismanagement or corruption.  Many pay lip service to the 
principles of good governance, but wink at or engage in a 
partisan scramble for government favors and jobs. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Engineer to politician - a brief bio 
------------------------------------ 
 
Eduardo Estrella Sadhala is from the second largest city in 
the Dominican Republic, Santiago, known as a breeding ground 
for politicians.  He comes from a prominent family that 
protected opponents of Rafael Trujillo's 1930-61 
dictatorship.  His father and grandfather were senior 
military officers, and an uncle was among the conspirators 
who assassinated Trujillo -- a group now revered as national 
heroes. 
 
Estrella graduated from the Autonomous University of Mexico 
(UNAM) with a civil engineering degree, and PRSC President 
Balaguer appointed him second secretary at the Dominican 
Embassy in Mexico City.  Estrella returned to the Santiago 
area and served as president of the Northern Regional 
Dominican School of Engineers, Architects and Surveyors. 
Elected as Santiago's senator in 1986, he was appointed by 
Balaguer as Under Secretary for Public Works and 
Communications and in 1991 advanced to Secretary of State for 
Public Works and Communications, a post he held until 1994. 
Estrella returned to his elected position in the Senate from 
1994-1998. 
 
Estrella was born on June 5, 1953.  He is married to Arelis 
Cruz de Estrella and they have three children. 
 
2.  (U) Drafted by Angela Kerwin, Michael Meigs. 
 
3.  (SBU) This report and others in the series are available 
on the classified SIPRNET at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/  along with 
extensive other material. 
HERTELL