US embassy cable - 04HARARE778

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000778 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER, D. TEITELBAUM 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
DS/OP/AF 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINR, ASEC, ZI 
SUBJECT: NCA PLANNING DEMONSTRATION FOR MAY 12 IN DOWNTOWN 
HARARE 
 
REF: A. HARARE 752 
     B. 2003 HARARE 2257 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: The National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) is 
planning a street demonstration in downtown Harare for May 
12, but absent participation from other groups its prospects 
for success are limited.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) On May 5, NCA Director Dr. Lovemore Madhuku said the 
NCA called off a demonstration scheduled for the week before. 
 The government-friendly Mirror reported that police had 
thwarted that "illegal" demonstration.  Madhuku said they had 
actually assembled on the street but had decided not to wear 
t-shirts with protest slogans in the hope of melting into the 
crowd and avoiding arrest afterward.  The lack of 
self-identification resulted in organizers failing to 
differentiate on the scene between demonstrators, and 
infiltrators; so the march never got going.  NCA intended to 
return to wearing t-shirts for the planned May 12 event.  The 
slogan will be, "no new elections without a new constitution". 
 
3. (C) The NCA has organized or participated in several 
street demonstrations, or failed protests over the past few 
years.  Madhuku said they had recently been training a core 
group of about 1000 demonstrators to march and motivate 
members of the public to join in.  Learning from past 
mistakes Madhuku said march organizers, who would not wear 
protest t-shirts, would carry cash for food and 
transportation for the whole group.  The organizers in 
plainclothes would hopefully avoid arrest and be able to 
respond if others were arrested.  Madhuku said those arrested 
or beaten in the past generally had all their cash and 
valuables stolen by police officers before formal processing. 
 NCA also planned to set up a temporary command center 
because police had generally occupied NCA's main offices 
after a demonstration preventing many NCA members from 
seeking assistance there.  Madhuku said they would arrange 
legal representation beforehand, and record license plate 
numbers of all police vehicles present before anything 
started. 
 
4. (C) Madhuku responded to criticism that the NCA had a 
reputation for "going it alone" when coordinated 
demonstrations with other civic groups and the MDC might be 
more effective.  He said that since the November 2003 
Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) failed demonstration 
(Ref B), when a who's who of Harare civic leaders was 
arrested, key civic groups and the MDC had met several times 
to plan coordinated action (Ref A).  In February, MDC, ZCTU, 
NCA and the Zimbabwe Liberators' Platform (ZLP) agreed to go 
ahead with mass action in about April.  Madhuku said that the 
MDC wanted to publicly announce a "common front", but the 
other groups were reluctant to be publicly associated with 
the opposition party.  Madhuku said he told MDC leaders that 
the NCA could either participate in planning street level 
action, or mobilize its membership under an MDC plan - but 
the MDC had not responded yet to either proposal.  The May 12 
demonstration, Madhuku said, was in part designed to motivate 
MDC leaders to move ahead with mass action.  Madhuku 
criticized MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai for making 
commitments, then not following through.  He said 
Tsvangirai's commitments would often differ from Secretary 
 
SIPDIS 
General Welshman Ncube's -- it was hard to know what the 
party would do. 
 
5. (C) Madhuku said he thought MDC leaders were uncomfortable 
with the prospect that the NCA's prominence might threaten 
the MDC's should a coordinated demonstration succeed. 
Madhuku said the NCA had no interest in becoming a political 
party.  He said if the MDC failed, with all the promise it 
had from winning 57 parliamentary seats in 2000, how could a 
smaller organization like the NCA succeed?  He said that if 
the MDC came to power, NCA would continue as a watchdog group 
for constitutional reform.  Madhuku said that despite rumors 
he was vying for a position in the MDC leadership, he had no 
inclination to join the leadership of the opposition.  He did 
say, however, that if he were offered a cabinet-level 
position in an MDC government he might accept it. 
 
Comment: 
-------- 
 
6. (C) Most observers realize that work stoppages cannot be 
sustained for long periods of time and will not oust Mugabe 
from power, so civic organizations are considering protest 
marches.  A small demonstration that did not invite a violent 
police crackdown could build confidence for a larger one.  A 
police crackdown is highly likely, however, and arresting, 
beating and detaining NCA leaders and members is likely to 
damage confidence in further demonstrations rather than build 
it.  NCA demonstrations in the past couple years have 
generally involved 15 - 200 people and their effectiveness 
has been very limited.  A large coordinated demonstration has 
not really been attempted yet so coordination is a key issue 
for the NCA, the MDC, and other civic groups.  Although there 
has been limited cross-organization participation in previous 
civil actions, and supportive press statements, there is 
little evidence so far that these key membership groups could 
agree enough to pull together large numbers of their people 
for a major march.  In this repressive environment, failed 
demonstrations are more likely to scare people away from 
participating in the future, and build confidence within the 
security forces for future crackdowns. 
SULLIVAN