US embassy cable - 04KATHMANDU889

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000889 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY 
NSC FOR MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, NP, Government of Nepal (GON) 
SUBJECT: NEPAL:  NO CONSENSUS ON NEW PM YET 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 880 
 
Classified By: CDA JANET BOGUE.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) Three days after the May 7 resignation of Prime 
Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa (Ref A), the search for his 
successor continues, with no clear contender in the lead. 
King Gyanendra appears to be sending out simultaneous and 
duplicative "feelers" to the leaders of the two largest 
parties--thereby adding to the already substantial levels of 
mistrust each harbors against him.  Nepali Congress President 
G.P. Koirala and Nepali Congress (Democratic) President Sher 
Bahadur Deuba reportedly have agreed to meet and discuss 
possibilities for reuniting their two factions.  The parties 
wisely have decided to decline invitations to meet with the 
King separately, insisting instead on a joint meeting in 
which leaders of all five protesting parties are present.  We 
believe this show of solidarity may be short-lived, however. 
With each passing day that the Prime Ministerial slot remains 
empty and reports of back-channel Palace communications with 
individual contenders emerge, we expect more cracks in the 
multi-party alliance to surface.  End summary. 
 
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WHO'S ON FIRST? 
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2.  (SBU) The May 7 resignation of Prime Minister Surya 
Bahadur Thapa (Ref A) has sent the already hard-working 
Kathmandu rumor mill into predictable overdrive with 
feverish, if not fact-based, speculation about whom King 
Gyanendra would appoint as his successor.  Over the weekend, 
breathless reports surfaced that the King had sent a car to 
pick up Nepali Congress President and former Prime Minister 
G.P. Koirala from his home in Morang District for an audience 
at the Royal Palace.  (By Sunday, the car had been 
transformed by rumor to an Army helicopter.)  As of May 10, 
however, party sources confirmed that Koirala and other 
members of the five-party alliance had decided not to meet 
the King separately. 
 
3.  (C)  UK Ambassador Keith Bloomfield told Charge on May 7 
that the King had indicated  he would appoint Madhav Nepal, 
General Secretary of the Communist Party of Nepal - United 
Marxist Leninist (UML), provided that Nepal would make 
several commitments, including bringing the Maoists back to 
the negotiating table.  (Note:  The King gave no similar 
indication when he met with Charge and Deputy Assistant 
Secretary for South Asian Affairs Donald Camp the same day. 
 
SIPDIS 
See septel for details.)  On May 10 Dr. Suresh Chalise, a 
Koirala confidant, told us that the King had sent "feelers" 
to the Nepali Congress President to accept the premiership as 
well.  According to Chalise, Koirala was unsure whether to 
pursue the overture, in part because of lingering mistrust of 
the King's true motives.  The Palace and the Royal Nepal Army 
might be setting Koirala up for failure in order to "tarnish 
his historical image," Chalise suggested.  At the same time, 
members of Koirala's party, who have their own aspirations 
for the premiership, are discouraging him from responding to 
the "feeler," Chalise said. He identified Ram Chandra Poudel, 
a Nepali Congress Central Committee member and former Deputy 
Prime Minister under Koirala's last government, as one such 
naysayer, alleging darkly that Poudel was being backed by 
India.  Koirala knows that the King has made similar 
overtures to the UML's Nepal, and perhaps to the UML's 
second-ranked K.P. Oli as well, Chalise noted, a situation 
that only adds to the atmosphere of mistrust and suspicion. 
The King's overture to Nepal is unlikely to be sincere, he 
said hopefully, since the Palace dislikes the UML leader for 
multiple reasons, including his refusal to serve on the panel 
investigating the royal massacre in June 2001. 
 
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DEUBA STILL IN THE RUNNING 
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4.  (C) If Koirala were appointed Prime Minister, he would 
give the UML the post of Deputy Prime Minister, Chalise 
asserted.  (According to Chalise, Nepal had told Koirala he 
would accept such a position in an all-party government one 
month ago.  It is unclear if he would still be willing to 
settle for the number two slot--especially if he is getting 
"feelers" of his own.)  Koirala could even accept long-time 
rival and Nepali Congress (Democratic) President Sher Bahadur 
Deuba into his Cabinet, Chalise declared, although with 
somewhat less conviction, noting that Deuba retains prime 
ministerial aspirations of his own.  He reported that Deuba 
had offered to unify the two parties provided that Koirala 
would support him as prime minister.  Although such a 
prospect is highly unlikely, Koirala has nonetheless agreed 
to meet Deuba to discuss matters.  (Note:  As far as we are 
aware, this would be the first meeting between the two 
Congress rivals since the factions split in 2002.  End note.) 
 
 
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PROTESTS, STRIKES PERSIST 
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5.  (C)  Thapa's resignation notwithstanding, the parties' 
protests against the Palace continued, if in somewhat muted 
tone, over the weekend, marking five full weeks of near-daily 
rallies and demonstrations.  The "bandh," or general strike, 
called by the five-party alliance for May 11 and 12, 
moreover, remains in effect.  However, in an effort to create 
a more conducive environment for compromise, Chalise said, 
Koirala has instructed his party workers to drop all slogans 
referring to a republic or calling for an end to the 
monarchy.  The month-long protests have made the average 
party activist far more militant, Chalise observed; during 
mass meetings last week the crowd shouted warnings to party 
leaders not to betray the movement by "selling out" to the 
King.  Should Koirala respond to the King's overture, he must 
persuade more radicalized members of his party's student wing 
that he is not attempting to betray his purported democratic 
convictions to gain the premiership.  Insisting on a joint 
meeting with leaders of all five agitating parties will help 
reassure any doubters, Chalise concluded. 
 
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COMMENT 
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6.  (C) We agree with Chalise that the King would have to 
overcome his well-known distrust of the UML in general and 
Madhav Nepal in particular if he is contemplating making the 
UML General Secretary the next Prime Minister.  It is also 
true that the King would have to overcome his well-known 
dislike of G.P. Koirala--and overlook Koirala's well-earned 
reputation for corruption--if he is thinking of choosing the 
Nepali Congress President.  As long as the King continues to 
make separate overtures, as he appears to be doing, to the 
leaders of the largest parties, it will be difficult for 
these chronically self-interested and short-sighted 
politicians to arrive at a consensus.  The parties' decision 
to insist on a joint meeting seems wise to us, reducing the 
chance of the usual conflicting versions of one-on-one 
meetings between party leaders and the King produced by both 
sides.  This solidarity may well waver, however, the longer 
the much-prized post of Prime Minister remains vacant and the 
"feelers" continue.  The King knows this, and may be betting 
that the party leaders' mistrust of one another and desire 
for partisan advantage will prompt one--if not all of 
them--to break ranks and try to cut a deal. 
 
BOGUE