US embassy cable - 04RANGOON574

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000574 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; USPACOM FOR FPA 
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2014 
TAGS: PREF, PINS, BM, TH, Ethnics, Human Rights 
SUBJECT: STATUS OF KAREN REFUGEE AND IDP RETURNS 
 
REF: A. BANGKOK 3031 
     B. RANGOON 537 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen M. Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: UNHCR's first assessment mission into 
Burma's south-eastern border area in early April found a 
heavy presence of Burmese Army troops and a lack of the basic 
infrastructure needed to support the tens of thousands of 
refugees projected to eventually return from Thailand. 
Though UNHCR continues planning for refugee repatriation, a 
formal SPDC-KNU political settlement remains a precondition 
for any returns, which UNHCR now doesn't expect to begin 
until early 2005.  As for IDPs, a Rangoon-based Karen leader 
reports that if SPDC-KNU talks scheduled for late May are 
successful, Karen IDP resettlement could soon after begin in 
the Papun Township in eastern Karen State.  END SUMMARY. 
 
INADEQUATE INFRASTRUCTURE 
 
2.  (C) Rangoon UNHCR Representative Rajiv Kapur told COM on 
April 8 that a UNHCR assessment team successfully surveyed 
three Karen townships in Tenasserim (Tanintharyi) Division in 
early April and determined that basic infrastructure needed 
to support the thousands of refugees that would return to 
that area was lacking.  Besides finding approximately 25,000 
Burmese Army troops garrisoned in the townships, in the 15 
village tracts around Tavoy (Dawei) the SPDC has designated 
for settling returning refugees there is no significant local 
economy and no drinking water, and health clinics will be 
unable to adequately address returnee health issues.  Though 
there are schools available, they have no furniture, books, 
or teachers.  However, the Tavoy army commander facilitated a 
very well organized trip for UNHCR, indicating to UNHCR the 
SPDC is taking the return of refugees and IDPs seriously. 
 
3.  (C)  Kapur described how 15 to 20 families had already 
spontaneously returned to the Tavoy area following the 
January SPDC-KNU verbal cease-fire agreement (ref A).  He 
said UNHCR won't be able tell the difference between a 
returning refugee and a returning IDP, and admitted that he 
didn't think UNHCR should have to make a distinction since 
the reason for flight was exactly the same.  Kapur also told 
us that according to the ICRC office in Tenasserim Division, 
the SPDC is not allowing IDPs and refugees to return to their 
original burned-out villages in what is now a no-man's land 
near the border.  The government is settling the returnees 
further into the interior next to military bases, which could 
expose them to forced labor and forced contribution abuses in 
the future.  Kapur forecast that the "right of return" to 
their original villages will become a main issue for UNHCR. 
 
4.  (C)  Help may be on the way.  A senior Karen community 
leader in Rangoon told us that Japan International 
Cooperation Agency (JICA) and World Concern presented a plan 
April 26 on regional development to upgrade infrastructure in 
the areas the Karen refugees will return to.  JICA's Rangoon 
representative said that JICA's Chairperson, Professor Ogata, 
has given her full support for infrastructure and social 
development in the Karen State.  However, the GOB has not yet 
approved JICA's MOU application to conduct road building, 
irrigation, agriculture, malaria, and HIV/AIDS programs. 
 
EFFECT FROM SPDC-KNU DELAY 
 
5.  (C) Regarding the recently postponed SPDC-KNU talks (ref 
A), Kapur later told Poloff UNHCR has made it very clear all 
along that an SPDC-KNU settlement is a precondition for any 
refugee repatriations.  He added that the GOB hasn't asked 
UNHCR to begin any repatriations to date, and "from the UNHCR 
perspective that is fine because the earliest returns would 
be no sooner than early in 2005."  Because of the lack of 
roads in the area and daunting logistics required, 
repatriations will have to be to only two or three areas at a 
time.  For example, repatriating the 9,000 refugees to Tavoy 
requires bringing them from Thailand by sea.  UNHCR will 
conduct a second assessment trip to the border area (COMMENT: 
Probably in eastern Karen State) in the near future, and is 
planning activities aimed at improving the situation for the 
population as a whole. 
 
MEANWHILE, 100,000 IDPs IN THE WINGS... 
 
6.  (C) A Rangoon-based Karen religious leader reported that 
if an agreement is made during the next round of SPDC-KNU 
talks, Karen church groups will draw up a detailed 
resettlement plan for Karen IDPs, with the first returns 
going to Papun Township in eastern Karen State.  The Karen 
leader said Karen religious groups had registered 100,000 
Christian Karen IDPs inside the Burmese border. 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT:  Once an SPDC-KNU settlement is agreed, the 
gate could open for a large influx of refugees and IDPs 
wanting to return to what are now economically stagnant and 
infrastructure-poor areas in Karen State, Mon State, and 
Tenasserim Division.  The UNHCR assessment missions over the 
next several months, and NGO funding currently under 
consideration, will do much to help prepare for possible 
returns.  END COMMENT. 
Martinez