US embassy cable - 04SANTODOMINGO2754

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SANTO DOMINGO 002754 
 
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SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA AND DRL;NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
LABOR FOR ILAB; USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD;TREASURY FOR 
OASIA-LAMONICA 
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USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, DR 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #45: INSTITUTIONS - YOU CAN'T 
TELL THE PLAYERS WITHOUT A PROGRAM 
 
1. (SBU)  Following is number 45 in our series on the 
Dominican presidential elections: 
 
Institutions - - You Can,t Tell the Players without a Program 
 
The Dominican elections authority is one of the least well 
established in the hemisphere, a legacy of the long years of 
dictatorship, personalistic party politics, and the lack of a 
permanent civil service.  The elements of the current 
structure date to the 1980,s.  Distrust with the system has 
prompted over time the formation of interest groups and ad 
hoc associations that seek to influence public opinion in 
order to oblige the elections authority to assure acceptable 
elections. 
 
To help with the handicapping for the May 16 elections, here 
is a summary of the institutions most directly involved in 
them: 
 
Junta Central Electoral.   The JCE lacks institutional 
autonomy and credibility.  The Senate appoints members and 
alternates for four-year terms shortly after a new Senate 
takes office (under the current schedule, halfway through a 
presidential term).  Appointments expire with the Senate, 
although reappointments by the following Senate are not 
uncommon.  The selection process is  highly partisan, and 
since JCE judges are on a 4-year short leash, they have 
correspondingly less of an opportunity to transcend party 
politics.   The 5 members of JCE appointed after the 1994 
electoral disaster were generally regarded as persons of 
integrity and carried out a successful 1996 election.  For 
the 2000 election the PRD-dominated Senate of 1998 named 5 
PRD sympathizers and expanded the body from 5 to 7, adding 
one judge from each of the other parties.  In 2003 after 
party quarreling prompted the resignation of the JCE 
president, the Senate, still PRD-dominated, expanded the 
number from 7 to the current 9 (again, yielding to PLD and 
PRSC pressures for representation).  The Senate defined a new 
structure, assigning 3 judges responsibilities for the 
administrative chamber and 5 to the dispute review panel 
("camara contentiosa").  Formal petitions for redress are 
considered by the plenary of 9 chaired by JCE President Luis 
Arias.  A judge may recuse himself and call in his alternate 
but this is rare. 
 
The JCE,s functions are self-contradictory.  It is 
responsible for organizing elections, overseeing the 
elections, and judging any disputes.  There is no appeal 
beyond the JCE; under terms of the electoral law, not even 
the Supreme Court has jurisdiction over electoral matters. 
 
Contests over rules.  These institutional realities drive 
political parties to contend over the rules, as occurred in 
the February-March "ley de lemas" initiative in which the 
ruling PRD sought, unsuccessfully, to change procedures for 
the first round of presidential elections to convert it into 
a selection among parties rather than among candidates.  In 
similar fashion, there are draft proposals circulating 
currently within the PRD-dominated Congress to align 
presidential and congressional elections - - by extending 
current congressional terms by two years to 2008. 
 
- - The Civil Society Monitoring Committee ("Comision de 
Seguimiento") continues a tradition begun in the mid-1980,s 
at the initiative of Catholic academic Monsignor Agripino 
Nunez Collado.  Nunez initiated civil mediation in 1986 in 
consort with the editors of leading newspapers "El Caribe" 
and "Listin Diario."  Their  pioneering effort exerted 
significant influence.  Monsignor Nunez, now rector of a 
leading catholic university, has been engaged in mediation 
for every national election since that time.  In the 2000 and 
2002 elections, he set up a formal "Civil Society Monitoring 
Comittee" under his chairmanship. The 2004 edition includes 
the Monsignor, his vice rector, heads of four business 
organizations, a noted surgeon and the head of the 
evangelical church association.  Over the past six months the 
Commission has provided the only venue at which the three 
principal presidential candidates have met - - twice, to the 
great satisfaction of photojournalists, to sign pacts drafted 
by the Commission enjoining them to proper conduct in their 
campaigns.  The Commission has made a notably positive 
contribution in setting up the uncompensated technical 
commission of computer systems experts that counseled the 
JCE. 
 
Nunez enjoys considerable prestige but over the years his 
gentle scolding has gradually lost its impact.  Other 
organizations have become active; Nunez is perceived by some 
as biased in his political preferences. The Commission's 
pacts have done little to alter the conduct of the candidates 
or of the parties.  When the Ambassador invited the full 
Commission to a luncheon discussion on April 29, the members 
were happy to talk politics in general but they had no 
cohesive approach to the subject. 
 
- - The Catholic Church. The Dominican Church has been 
generally non-controversial about the elections.  The Church 
has enjoyed a cozy relationship with government since 
Trujillo recognized it as the official state-sponsored church 
and formally committed to provide direct subsidies to the 
institution.  This arrangement survived despite the bishops, 
repudiation of Trujillo in the 1960,s.  The Conference of 
Bishops has periodically issued written declarations, 
including a December missive that went so far as to suggest 
obliquely that President Mejia reconsider his decision to 
seek a second term.  Homilies and comments from Cardinal 
Nicholas de Jesus Rodriguez and senior theologian Fr. Arnaez 
regularly play in the press.  They focus on ethical and 
humanitarian values generally, choosing no political 
favorites.  One interesting point -- the Cardinal, as titular 
head of the system of military chaplains, holds flag rank in 
the Dominican armed forces. 
 
- -Civic NGOs.  Non-governmental organization Participacion 
Ciudadana (PC), founded in the early 1990,s, has been a 
vigorous advocate of electoral transparency, supported in 
recent years by USG funding through USAID.  PC has trained 
electoral observers for every polling station nation-wide and 
carries out a &quick count8 that in 2000 and 2002 was 
within one percent of the vote tallies later certified.  PC 
recently published an analysis of 20 years of corruption 
cases that documented the fact that in more than 100 
prosecutions, only one defendant actually served time.   The 
Foundation for Institution-building and Justice (FINJUS) has 
a similar approach to elections, articulated by influential 
young activist lawyers - - this is the group that persuaded 
the three candidates to address their forum on their views on 
the theme of corruption.  These two NGOs are the engines of 
the "Civic Forum" of more than 150 community organizations 
and of the umbrella Coalition for Transparency and 
Institutionality.  These coalitions mounted demonstrations 
that helped to block the "ley de lemas" proposal in February. 
 The Coalition is currently gathering opposition to a 
proposal in Congress to redraw the boundaries of national 
parks so as to open beach lands for commercial development. 
 
- -Business Groups.  The senior group is the Council of 
Entrepreneurs (CONEP) presided by Elena Viyella de Paliza, 
and the junior one is the Young Entrepreneurs Association 
(ANJE) headed by Manuel Diez.  Each is active in organizing 
conferences and activities that regularly provide their 
leaders platforms for public pronouncements defending 
business interests.  The American Chamber of Commerce 
(AmCham), presided by Verizon telecoms president Jorge Ivan 
Ramirez (a Colombian national) is politically engaged, 
generally through luncheons, monthly or more often, that 
feature prominent speakers (including, in sequence, each of 
the three candidates).  AmCham president Ramirez delivers 
membership views on current topics but these usually get 
limited press play, given the general nature of most of his 
remarks.  Sectoral business associations have a lower 
profile; these include, for example, those of industrialists, 
hotel operators and free zone operators. 
 
- - Labor and Popular Associations.  The labor movement is 
relatively low profile in the country, and strikes at 
enterprises or in specific economic sectors are rare.  The 
national work stoppages in November and January near public 
holidays were proposed and successfully publicized by a 
consortium of leftist-leaning "popular associations" from 
neighborhoods, the transporters' and drivers' associations 
and individual labor activists.  Those expressions of 
nationwide discontent with inflation and electricity 
blackouts carried complaints about the performance of 
theMejia administration but were not specifically anti-Mejia. 
 
 
A different approach is that of the College of Physicians, 
with an agenda influenced by health workers in public 
institutions.  Their work stoppages and demonstrations at 
public hospitals before Easter demanded a doubling in salary 
and had an anti-Mejia tinge.  That view has become more 
pronounced.  Colegio president Dr. Waldo Ariel Suero has told 
the press that President Mejia failed to deliver on his 
pre-Easter promise to put a bill forward in Congress to get 
salary increases.  The Colegio and associated service unions 
in the public health sector are undertaking a six-day strike 
to coincide with the final week of campaigning.  (On May 7 
President of the House of Representatives Alfredo Pacheco 
indicated to the DCM that the Colegio may, after all, 
postpone until after the elections.) 
 
- -The Security Forces.   This is a thoroughly politicized 
institution, even though the Constitution prohibits military 
engagement in politics and members of the armed forces do not 
have the right to vote.  President Mejia,s promotions have 
created a general officer corps of close to 200 for an 
enlisted corps of only about 40,000.  Secretary of the Armed 
Forces MG Soto Jimenez publicly insists on the apolitical 
mission of the military but he and the service chiefs are all 
political animals who owe their advancement to their PRD 
connections.  The National Police are somewhat less top heavy 
(50 generals for 27,000 police) and therefore less directly 
dependent upon the electoral outcome.  It appears that 
despite persistent rumors to the contrary, the institutions 
are training and planning for full orthodox support to the 
elections.  In the event of a Fernandez victory, however, 
many in the leadership would be likely to face speedy 
retirement. 
 
- -Congress.   Congress was the scene in February and March 
of the "ley de lemas" struggle by the PRD to get changes to 
the electoral law.  That was derailed both by civic 
opposition and by the pragmatic reality that the elections 
were simply too close for fundamental procedural changes. 
The PRD owns the Senate almost entire and has a strong 
presence in the House of Representatives; one benefit is that 
members of congress can designate a certain amount of direct 
government subsidy to local associations and NGOs.  The 
current PRD-dominated Congress remains in office until 2006 
(that is, under the current Constitution and laws). 
 
- - And, finally, the political parties themselves.  Party 
faithful take inspiration in their leaders but are also 
motivated  by the prospect of government jobs.  Since there 
is virtually no permanent civilian career government service, 
a change of president entails a vast turnover in government 
employment.  A change of president and transition period to a 
new administration on August 16 would be marked by far 
greater government inefficiency than usual, potentially 
accompanied by theft of government assets. 
 
2. (U)  Drafted by Mchael Meigs. 
 
3.  (U)  This report and other election reporting is 
available on our SIPRNET website at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo< /a>          along 
with extensive other material. 
HERTELL