US embassy cable - 04LILONGWE375

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000375 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EFIN, PINR, MI, Political Issues 
SUBJECT: MALAWI TO MUDDLE THROUGH ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. 03 LILONGWE 1202 
 
     B. LILONGWE 333 
     C. LILONGWE 326 
 
Classified By: Pol/Econ Officer Peter W. Lord, reasons 1.5 (b/d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) The Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) confirmed on May 
5 that presidential and parliamentary elections will take 
place on May 18 in spite of continuing difficulties with the 
voters' roll, a flawed verification process, and a 
significant funding gap.  On the political scene, a 
last-ditch clergy-led attempt at uniting the opposition to 
field a single presidential candidate was unsuccessful.  The 
Mgwirizano Coalition presidential candidate Gwanda 
Chakuamba's campaign is gaining steam, as criticism mounts 
against front-runner Bingu wa Mutharika of the ruling United 
Democratic Front (UDF).  While the MEC is likely to muddle 
through the elections, the run-up to polling day has been 
marred by inequitable access to the state-owned media.  In 
addition, some voters may be disenfranchised by the MEC's 
administrative incompetence.  END SUMMARY. 
 
THE LAST DONOR-MEC MEETING 
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2. (SBU) Donor Chiefs of Missions and the Malawi Electoral 
Commission (MEC) met on May 5 to discuss final election 
preparations, the voters' roll verification process, and 
continued problems with the budget.  The MEC was represented 
by Chair Justice James Kalaile and Chief Elections Officer 
Roosevelt Gondwe. 
 
A FLAWED VERIFICATION PROCESS AND ITS REMEDY 
-------------------------------------------- 
3. (SBU) Gondwe conceded that the verification process, which 
was supposed to allow voters and new registrants to confirm 
that their information had been properly updated, "was not a 
successful exercise."  He concluded there was low voter 
turnout because people knew the roster available in voting 
centers was the one from the 1999 elections, not an updated 
version.  Recognizing that the process failed, Gondwe said 
the updated, computerized rosters would be distributed to 
voting centers on May 11 and would be available for 
inspection until polling day.  The preparation of the updated 
roster, Gondwe said, has been greatly expedited by new 
computer support recently brought in from South Africa.  No 
provisions have been made, however, to deal with the at least 
one million extra names on the voters' roll (reftel C). 
 
A BUDGET WITHOUT BUCKS 
---------------------- 
4. (SBU) Kalaile confirmed that the elections budget remains 
USD 18.4 million.  He, however, noted that new expenditures 
of USD 105,000 for South African computer support and USD 
500,000 for political party monitoring training were not 
reflected in the current budget.  Representatives from the 
Ministry of Finance have "verbally committed" to pay for the 
computer support, but there is still USD 3.5 to 4 million in 
expected spending beyond MEC resources.  The GOM again 
appealed to the donors to provide additional financial 
support, but all -- again -- declined to do so.  Speaking 
about the funding gap, Kalaile told poloff the GOM "will just 
have to run a deficit that will be made up in next year's 
budget." 
 
MULUZI'S ALLEGATIONS AGAINST EU OBSERVERS "BASELESS" 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
5. (SBU) Kalaile characterized as "baseless" President 
Muluzi's accusations that the EU Observer Team had been 
"decampaigning" the UDF government (reftel B).  Upon hearing 
the President's allegations, Kalaile said the MEC made 
inquires into the situation and "found no evidence" of 
improper behavior by the EU Observers. 
 
A FINAL, FAILED ATTEMPT AT OPPOSITION UNIFICATION 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
6. (SBU) In a last-ditch attempt to persuade opposition 
parties to field one presidential candidate, church leaders 
hosted April 26-27 talks among the National Democratic 
Alliance's (NDA) Brown Mpinganjira, Malawi Congress Party's 
(MCP) John Tembo, independent presidential candidate Justin 
Malewezi, and the Mgwirizano Coalition led by Gwanda 
Chakuamba.  Although the opposition leaders were unable to 
agree to a unified ticket, they released a joint statement 
calling on Kalaile to correct the voters' roll, implement a 
proper verification process, stop the UDF from using public 
resources in its campaign, and rectify the state-owned 
media's bias in favor of the ruling UDF.  The statement 
demanded that Kalaile "address these concerns within seven 
days or he should resign to allow a more capable person to 
preside over the coming elections."  (COMMENT: Although the 
call for Kalaile's resignation was hyperbolic, the concerns 
expressed are genuine.  The MEC's decision to make the 
voters' roll available in voting centers on May 11, which has 
not yet been publicly announced, may be a result of the 
opposition leaders' press statement.) 
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL 
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7. (SBU) Gwanda Chakuamba's presidential campaign as the 
Mgwirizano Coalition presidential candidate has gained 
momentum.  Independent newspapers and public polls indicate 
that Chakuamba is running a strong campaign.  Chakuamba's 
recent gains, however, have not extended to the Mgwirizano 
Coalition parliamentary candidates, who remain disorganized 
and largely loyal to their respective parties rather than to 
the Coalition. 
 
8. (SBU) While Chakuamba's campaign is gaining steam, Bingu 
wa Mutharika and the ruling UDF have come under greater 
scrutiny after a high-level COMESA report surfaced about 
Mutharika's 1997 firing from the position of COMESA Secretary 
General.  The report details misuse of funds, leadership 
incompetence, and a GOM-orchestrated sack.  While Mutharika's 
departure from COMESA has been publicly known since Mutharika 
was selected as the UDF's presidential candidate, it has only 
recently become a major campaign issue. 
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COMMENT 
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PROSPECTS OF FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS 
------------------------------------ 
9. (C) It is clear that the fairness of the electoral process 
has been compromised by inequitable access to the state-owned 
media.  In addition, logistical problems with the 
administration of the vote, and the more than one million 
extra names on the voters' roll could potentially lead to 
voting fraud.  While Malawians may end up accepting the 
elections, these concerns cannot be ignored in assessing the 
elections' credibility. 
 
10. (C) The sudden declaration that the elections will occur 
on May 18, which two weeks ago was declared an impossible 
task, is likely a political decision made due to the recent 
success of Chakuamba's campaign and the growing questions 
about Mutharika.  With Mutharika's superior access to 
resources and the state-owned media, however, the election is 
still his to lose.  END COMMENT. 
BROWNING