US embassy cable - 04BOGOTA4632

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004632 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, CO 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL REELECTION PASSES FIRST TEST 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons: 1.4 B & D. 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Prospects for passage of legislation to 
permit immediate presidential reelection are mixed.  As 
Constitutional reform, the proposal faces a challenging vote 
hurdle.  Approval requires eight votes: committee and 
plenary, both chambers, this session and next.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) Legislation to reform the Constitution to allow 
immediate presidential reelection passed Senate committee (12 
votes of 19 total) the week of April 26.  The bill is now 
before the full Senate.  As Constitutional reform, the 
measure requires approval by regular majorities (majority of 
quorum) in both houses prior to the close of the current 
congressional session on June 20.  Subsequently, it would 
need approval by "qualified" majorities (majority of total 
members) in both houses during the July-December session. 
 
3.  (U) The Conservative Party, with 25 of 102 senators and 
43 of 166 representatives, is the key swing vote on the 
issue.  If Uribista Liberals (roughly 35 in the Senate and 60 
in the House) and Conservatives vote in unison in favor, the 
reform will pass.  Former President Andres Pastrana, leader 
for a sizable percentage of the Conservative Party, publicly 
opposes reelection on the grounds that it should not apply to 
Uribe but only to future presidents.  However, Pastrana, in a 
leaked letter to party head Carlos Holguin, recommended that 
party members vote their consciences on the issue.  Uribe and 
Interior Minister Sabas Pretelt have consulted regularly with 
the Conservatives on the issue. 
 
4.  (U) Detractors include the Officialist Liberal Party, led 
by former presidents Ernesto Samper, Julio Turbay, and 
Alfonso Lopez, and the Independent Democratic Party (PDI) of 
Senator Antonio Navarro and Bogota Mayor Lucho Garzon.  The 
former stresses the view that reelection, if passed, should 
not benefit Uribe.  The latter largely resists reelection on 
ideological grounds.  The Liberals and PDI both hope to run 
their own candidate in 2006.  Many worry about the 
possibility of a level playing field for challengers to a 
sitting incumbent. 
 
5.  (C) The qualified majority requirement in the second 
round is a serious hurdle.  Public opinion is strongly on 
Uribe's side, with 70-80 percent in favor of reelecting him, 
according to various recent polls.  Uribe has the numbers in 
Congress provided that the Uribista Liberals and 
Conservatives vote in unison on the issue.  Our senior level 
Conservative contacts concur that the party will vote almost 
entirely in favor (with perhaps a handful of exceptions, 
particularly in the lower house).  However, Uribista Liberal 
contacts in both houses have told us privately that some of 
their ranks have become concerned with Uribe's over-attention 
to the Conservatives. 
 
6.  (C) Comment:  Defeat in this session of Congress--in 
either house--would likely spell  death for the issue, as the 
clock would have to start over with the July-December session 
and continue into the March-June session of 2005.  Our 
interlocutors say that would be too close to the presidential 
election in summer 2006 to be viable. 
WOOD