US embassy cable - 04ANKARA2457

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 002457 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2014 
TAGS: AM, CY, IZ, MOPS, PHUM, PREL, TU 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S APRIL 30 MEETING WITH FM ABDULLAH GUL 
 
 (U) Classified by Ambassador Eric Edelman, E.O. 12958, 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
 
1.  (S) BEGIN SUMMARY.  TURKISH FM ABDULLAH GUL HOSTED A 
LUNCH FOR AMBASSADOR EDELMAN AND UK AMBASSADOR PETER 
WESTMACOTT TO THANK THEM FOR USG AND HMG EFFORTS TO SECURE A 
CYPRUS SETTLEMENT BEFORE MAY 1.  AMBASSADOR EDELMAN ALSO HAD 
A SEPARATE 30 MINUTE MEETING TO DISCUSS OTHER ISSUES IN 
PREPARATION FOR THE JUNE VISIT OF PRESIDENT BUSH INCLUDING, 
ECONOMIC RELATIONS, IRAQ, GME, ARMENIA, THE STATUS OF THE 
ORTHODOX PATRIARCHATE, TURKISH EU ACCESSION AND HUMAN RIGHTS 
ISSUES.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
CYPRUS 
------ 
 
 
2.  (S) ALTHOUGH ORIGINALLY BILLED AS A CELEBRATORY LUNCH FM 
GUL AND HIS TEAM (U/S UGUR ZIYAL, DEPUTY U/S ILKIN AND AMB. 
APAKAN) WERE IN A DOWNBEAT MOOD.  GUL AND ZIYAL SAID THE 
TURKS WERE DEEPLY DISAPPOINTED BY THE REVISED EU REGULATION, 
BY THE ACTIONS OF THE PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY OF THE COUNCIL 
OF EUROPE AND THE DRAFT PRESIDENTIAL STATEMENT AT THE UNSC 
THAT HAD BEEN SCRAPPED ON THURSDAY.  GUL SAID HE WAS 
SURPRISED AND DISAPPOINTED.  THE EU FMS IN DUBLIN HAD BEEN 
VERY SUPPORTIVE WHEN HE HAD MET WITH THEM BUT NOW HE FEARED 
THAT VERY LITTLE CONCRETE HAD BEEN DONE TO IMPROVE THE 
SITUATION OF THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS.  ZIYAL SAID THE REVISED EU 
REGULATION DIFFERED VERY LITTLE FROM WHAT HAD BEEN DRAFTED 
PRIOR TO THE REFERENDUM RESULTS. ILKIN STRESSED THAT IT WAS 
ESSENTIAL TO GET REAL RESULT FOR THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS IN THE 
NEXT FEW WEEKS WHILE PEOPLE WERE STILL ANGRY AT THE GREEK 
CYPRIOTS.  "AFTER A SHORT TIME MEMORIES AND GOOD WILL START 
TO FADE."  GUL STRESSED THAT WHAT THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS NEEDED 
WERE STEPS TO IMPROVE THEIR REAL LIVING CONDITIONS.  ZIYAL 
ADDED THAT SYMBOLIC STEPS WERE ALSO IMPORTANT.  DE SOTO 
VISITING WITH TALAT AT HIS OFFICE IN THE NORTH WAS A VERY 
GOOD THING.  ZIYAL SAID HE HOPED THE UK HIGH COMMISSIONER AND 
US AMBASSADOR WOULD DO THE SAME. 
 
 
3.  (S) AMBASSADORS WESTMACOTT AND EDELMAN TRIED TO ENCOURAGE 
THE TURKS TO LOOK AT THE POSITIVE ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF THE PAST 
FEW DAYS.  AFTER AMB. WESTMACOTT REVIEWED THE BIDDING ON THE 
EU REGULATION HE SAID THAT ALTHOUGH IT HAD ITS DEFICIENCIES 
IT REMAINED CONSIDERABLY BETTER THAN IT HAD STARTED.  THE 
TURKS ALL AGREED THAT WHAT MATTERED WAS HOW THINGS WORKED IN 
PRACTICE AND WHETHER THE REGULATION COULD BE IMPLEMENTED IN A 
MANNER THAT BROUGHT RELIEF TO THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS.  AMB. 
EDELMAN STRESSED THAT THE TURKS NEEDED TO BE THINKING ABOUT 
THE "LONG GAME."  THEY NEEDED TO KEEP THEIR FOCUS ON GETTING 
AN ACCESSION DATE FROM THE EU IN DECEMBER AND ON "STAYING ONE 
STEP AHEAD OF THE GREEK CYPRIOTS" WHICH WAS, AFTER ALL, THE 
STRATEGY WHICH HAD GOTTEN THEM INTO A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE 
POSITION DESPITE EVERYONE'S UNDERSTANDABLE DISAPPOINTMENT 
ABOUT THE RESULTS OF THE REFERENDUM IN THE SOUTH.  BOTH 
EDELMAN AND WESTMACOTT, IN THAT CONTEXT, URGED THE TURKS TO 
THINK ABOUT STEPS LIKE LIFTING THE PASSPORT RESTRICTION AT 
THE GREEN LINE AND POSSIBLY TROOP WITHDRAWALS TO STAY AHEAD 
OF THE CURVE. 
 
 
4.  (S) GUL REPLIED THAT THE TURKS VERY MUCH WANTED TO STAY 
ONE STEP AHEAD OF THE CURVE AND "HAD THE POLITICAL COURAGE TO 
TAKE EVEN MORE STEPS" THAN THEY HAD ALREADY.  THAT WOULD BE 
DIFFICULT TO ACCOMPLISH, HOWEVER, IF THERE WERE NO CONCRETE 
STEPS TO BENEFIT THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS THAT WERE VISIBLE TO 
THE TURKISH PUBLIC.  TURKEY IS A DEMOCRACY, HE SAID, AND 
PUBLIC OPINION PLAYED AN IMPORTANT ROLE.  ZIYAL ADDED THAT 
THE PRESS HAD BEEN LARGELY POSITIVE IN TURKEY SINCE SATURDAY 
BUT IT WAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SOUR A LITTLE BIT AND NO ONE 
COULD BE SURE HOW LONG THE CURRENT HONEYMOON WOULD LAST.  GUL 
SAID THE TURKS HAD TRIED TO CONVEY THEIR DETERMINATION TO 
TAKE STEPS IN HIS INTERVIEW WITH POLITIS AND IN MINISTER 
SENER'S SPEECH IN BRUSSELS.  IN ORDER FOR THE TURKS TO 
MAINTAIN THIS POSTURE THEY NEEDED TO BE ABLE TO SHOW RESULTS. 
 ZIYAL ADDED THAT THE GOVERNMENT NEEDED TO BE ABLE TO REBUT 
ITS CRITICS BY DEMONSTRATING THAT "CONTINUING TO STAY ONE 
STEP AHEAD IS THE RIGHT PATH."  ILKIN NOTED THAT THE TURKS 
WOULD HAVE TO WORK OUT REASONABLE MODALITIES TO DEAL WITH THE 
GREEK CYPRIOTS.  TURKEY BOTH NEEDED TO DO THIS AND WANTED TO 
DO IT BUT GETTING THERE WOULD BE HARD.  THAT WAS WHY IT WAS 
SO IMPORTANT TO GET THE CONTEXT RIGHT.  "WE NEED SOME 
CONCRETE STEPS ON THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS THAT ENABLE US TO MAKE 
THE RIGHT GESTURES TO THE GREEK CYPRIOTS." ZIYAL EXPRESSED 
HIS FEAR THAT THE GREEK CYPRIOTS, "ONCE THE DUST HAS 
SETTLED," WOULD START TO MAKE TROUBLE FOR TURKEY'S EU 
ACCESSION.  EDELMAN AND WESTMACOTT STRESSED THAT THIS WAS ALL 
THE MORE REASON FOR TURKEY TO CONTINUE ITS POSTURE OF 
'STAYING ONE STEP AHEAD OF THE GREEK CYPRIOTS."  GUL SUMMED 
UP BY SAYING THE TURKISH CYPRIOTS NEEDED THINGS LIKE 
INCREASED OPPORTUNITIES FOR TRADE, DIRECT FLIGHTS, SHIP 
VISITS AND INCREASED TOURISM.  TURKEY WOULD CONTINUE TO DO 
ITS PART AND PM ERDOGAN WOULD GO TO ATHENS ON MAY 7-8. 
 
 
EU ACCESSION AND FURTHER REFORMS 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
5.  (S) FM GUL SAID THE GOVERNMENT WAS WORKING HARD ON ITS 
FURTHER PACKAGE OF REFORMS.  THE REFORMS INCLUDED SIGNIFICANT 
STEPS TO ADDRESS PERSISTENT HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES AND CIVILIAN 
CONTROL OF THE MILITARY.  AMBASSADOR WESTMACOTT RAISED THE 
CASE OF LEYLA ZANA NOTING THAT IT HAD BECOME A BIG CAUSE 
CELEBRE IN THE EU.  ALTHOUGH HE DID NOT KNOW THE ANSWER IT 
WAS CLEAR THAT IF THE GOT COULD SOMEHOW RESOLVE THIS IT WOULD 
BE ENORMOUSLY HELPFUL TO TURKEY'S CASE IN DECEMBER.  GUL 
SAID, WE WANT TO SOLVE THIS.  "IT IS A BIG HEADACHE FOR US. 
YOU WOULD NOT BELIEVE HOW HARD WE WORKED TO GET THE STATE 
SECURITY COURT TO REVERSE ITS VERDICT, BUT IT WAS 
IMPOSSIBLE." THE JUDGES, HE SAID, APPARENTLY BELIEVED THAT 
THEY WERE BEING ACCUSED OF SOME PERSONAL FAILING BY HAVING 
THE CASE REMANDED BACK TO THEM FOR RETRIAL.  "I AM PERSONALLY 
QUITE WORRIED ABOUT THIS CASE.  WHAT WILL BE DO IF LEYLA ZANA 
BECOMES THE FIRST TURK TO WIN THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE?  HOW 
WILL THAT LOOK?"  GUL SAID THAT HE HAD HOPED THAT ZANA AND 
HER CO-DEFENDANTS COULD BE GOTTEN OFF WITH TIME SERVED FOR 
"GOOD BEHAVIOR."  "WE APPROACHED THEM AND THEIR LAWYERS AND 
SAID FOR GOD'S SAKE PLEASE STOP INSULTING THE JUDGES SO WE 
CAN GET YOU OFF. BUT THEY REFUSED."  THE FOREIGN MINISTER 
SAID THAT THE WAY FORWARD WAS TO GET THE NEW CONSTITUTIONAL 
PACKAGE PASSED.  HE ANTICIPATE THIS WOULD HAPPEN IN TWO 
WEEKS.  THEN THE ABOLITION OF THE STATE SECURITY COURTS WOULD 
OPEN THE WAY TO A SOLUTION.  THE CASE COULD BE REMANDED TO A 
DIFFERENT COURT AND, HE HOPED, A DIFFERENT OUTCOME. 
 
 
HALKI SEMINARY 
-------------- 
 
 
6.  (S) AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE LUNCH, THE TWO AMBASSADORS 
RAISED THE CASE OF HALKI SEMINARY AS ANOTHER STEP THAT WOULD 
BE SOLVE A BILATERAL U.S.-TURKISH CONCERN BUT ALSO ADVANCE 
THE CAUSE OF TURKEY'S EU CANDIDACY.  GUL REPLIED THAT "WE 
WANT TO SOLVE THIS ISSUE."  THE GOT BELIEVED IN FREEDOM OF 
RELIGION AND HAD NO OBJECTION TO THE PATRIARCHATE TRAINING 
PRIESTS.  BOTH ZIYAL AND ILKIN (SURPRISINGLY) CHIMED IN 
NOTING THAT THEY UNDERSTOOD THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ISSUE TO 
ORTHODOX COMMUNITIES IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE 
DESIRABILITY OF REACHING A SOLUTION.  MINISTER OF EDUCATION 
CELIK WAS WORKING ON SOME IDEAS ABOUT HOW TO MOVE FORWARD. 
MINISTER GUL NOTED PUBLIC PRESSURE FROM THE U.S. TO SOLVE 
THIS WOULD MAKE IT HARDER FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO REACH AN 
OUTCOME THAT WOULD BE FAVORABLE TO THE PATRIARCHATE. 
 
 
IRAQ AND INCIRLIK 
----------------- 
 
 
7.  (S) AMBASSADOR THANKED THE GOT FOR ITS ASSISTANCE WITH 
THE GLOC FOR IRAQ AS WELL AS THE ONGOING TANKER OPERATIONS 
AND JUST COMPLETED TROOP ROTATION.  HE NOTED THAT THE COUNCIL 
OF MINISTERS DECISION, WHICH HAD PROVIDED A RUBRIC UNDER 
WHICH MANY OF THESE ACTIVITIES COULD GO FORWARD, WOULD EXPIRE 
AT THE END OF JUNE.  HE URGED THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS TO 
RENEW THIS DECISION.  WE MIGHT WELL SEEK ANOTHER TROOP 
ROTATION IN THE FALL AND THERE MIGHT BE OTHER POSSIBLE USES 
OF INCIRLIK THAT WOULD FALL INTO THIS AREA.  GUL WAS 
NONCOMMITTAL BUT TOOK NOTE OF AMBASSADOR'S REQUEST.  HE NOTED 
THAT, ALTHOUGH HE RECOGNIZED THE U.S. HAD ITS HANDS FULL IN 
IRAQ AT THE MOMENT, THE PKK ISSUE CONTINUED TO BE A PROBLEM 
FOR THE GOT.  RECENT INTELLIGENCE ON WHAT THE PKK MIGHT BE 
PLANNING WAS "VERY DISTURBING."  HE ASKED THAT THE U.S.G. 
CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR WAYS TO ADDRESS THE ISSUE.  THINGS WERE 
CHANGING IN THE SOUTH EAST.  THE AKP GOVERNMENT HAD WON 
IMPORTANT VICTORIES THERE IN THE MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 
SHATTERING THE STEREOTYPE THAT KURDS IN TURKEY WOULD ONLY 
VOTE FOR A KURDISH PARTY.  THIS WAS DEMOCRACY AT WORK BUT IT 
COULD WELL STIMULATE THE PKK TO TAKE VIOLENT ACTION TO 
DISRUPT THINGS.  THE PRESS CONTINUED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR 
THE GOVERNMENT ON THIS.  AMBASSADOR EDELMAN NOTED THAT THE 
MINISTER WAS CORRECT ABOUT THE SERIOUS SECURITY CHALLENGES 
FACING THE U.S. IN IRAQ.  GENERAL BASBUG HAD RAISED TURKISH 
CONCERNS ABOUT THE PKK IN WASHINGTON IN HIS MARCH MEETINGS 
WITH GENERAL PACE.  WORK ON THAT SUBJECT IN WASHINGTON 
CONTINUED AND THE AMBASSADOR UNDERTOOK TO REPORT THE 
MINISTER'S PERSONAL EXPRESSION OF CONCERN. 
 
 
ARMENIA 
------- 
 
 
8. (S) AMBASSADOR EDELMAN NOTED THAT MINISTER GUL HAD BEEN 
WORKING WITH FM OSKANYAN ON TURKISH-ARMENIAN RELATIONS.  THE 
PERIOD BEFORE THE SUMMIT OFFERED AN OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE SOME 
SYMBOLIC STEPS ON OPENING THE BORDER.  IF NOT A FULL OPENING 
PERHAPS ALLOWING DIPLOMATIC PASSPORT HOLDERS TO CROSS AS A 
STEP ALONG A DEFINED PATH TO ULTIMATELY OPENING THE BORDER. 
ABSENT PROGRESS ON TURKISH-ARMENIAN RELATIONS IT WOULD BE 
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO HOLD THE LINE IN THE U.S. CONGRESS 
ON A GENOCIDE RESOLUTION.  THE PASSAGE BY THE CANADIAN 
PARLIAMENT OF SUCH A RESOLUTION WAS BOTH INSTRUCTIVE AND 
CAUTIONARY.  THE USG HOPED IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR PEOPLE TO 
PEOPLE EFFORTS LIKE TARC TO CONTINUE BUT GOVERNMENTS HAD TO 
TAKE SOME STEPS AS WELL. GUL RESPONDED THAT HE UNDERSTOOD. 
"WE WANT TO TAKE SOME STEPS WITH ARMENIA AND WE HAVE BEEN 
CONSIDERING SOMETHING ON DIPLOMATIC PASSPORT HOLDERS."  GUL 
NOTED THAT A GROUP OF ARMENIAN CHILDREN HAD BEEN ALLOWED TO 
CROSS THE BORDER FOR THE APRIL 23 YOUTH DAY CELEBRATIONS IN 
TURKEY AND SOME OTHER GESTURES.  HE PROMISED TO PROVIDE THE 
AMBASSADOR WITH MORE DETAIL ON THESE MATTERS AND TO THINK 
FURTHER ABOUT WHAT MIGHT BE DONE. 
 
 
ECONOMIC RELATIONS 
------------------ 
 
 
9.  (S) GUL SAID THAT THE GOT HOPED THAT THE PRESIDENT'S 
VISIT WOULD BE "SUCCESSFUL AND HISTORIC."  IT WOULD BE 
IMPORTANT TO MOVE THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP FORWARD IN THAT 
CONTEXT.  HE PROVIDED AMBASSADOR WITH GOT'S SMALL EDITS ON 
THE DRAFT AGREEMENT LANGUAGE (TRANSMITTED SEPARATELY VIA 
EMAIL).  HE ALSO ASKED FOR A STATUS REPORT ON THE QIZ. 
AMBASSADOR EDELMAN NOTED THAT WE HAD WELCOMED GOT'S 
WILLINGNESS TO MOVE FORWARD ON A QIZ WITHOUT REFERENCE TO 
TEXTILES.  THE USG WAS NOW SEEKING AN APPROPRIATE LEGISLATIVE 
VEHICLE TO MOVE THIS FORWARD. 
EDELMAN