US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV2471

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002471 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, GOI INTERNAL 
SUBJECT: GAZA DISENGAGEMENT: SHARON FACING DEFEAT UNLESS 
MAJOR -- UNEXPECTED -- TURNAROUND BEFORE SUNDAY 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 2458 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  All Israeli polls are showing defeat for 
Prime Minister Sharon's disengagement plan at the hands of 
Likud party members.  With little time left to campaign, and 
with the public's focus riveted on the Israeli basketball 
team's Saturday night final game for the European 
championship, Sharon has few available means of turning the 
numbers around.  Sharon's chief of staff Dov Weissglas told 
the Ambassador April 30 that he attributes the plan's drop in 
support primarily to Likud voter apathy and vowed that Sharon 
has no intention of giving up even in the face of a 
referendum defeat.  Polling data point to strong support 
among Likud members for Sharon personally, even by those who 
will vote against disengagement.  The smell of blood is in 
the water for Sharon's rivals who may use this referendum to 
try to send Sharon into retirement.  If the plan is voted 
down, Sharon has few options, none good.  End summary. 
 
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Polls: Disengagement Plan Will Be Defeated 
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2.  (C) Public and private polls conducted April 28 forecast 
defeat for PM Sharon's disengagement plan by margins of 51/43 
percent and 46/38 percent.  With less than 48 hours until the 
polls open, Sharon has few if any means of turning the vote 
around.  He has already deployed doomsday warnings about the 
future of Likud, the economy and U.S. relations.  The threat 
of Sharon's resignation, voiced by his son, Omri, has not 
swayed voters.  Sharon's options are limited further by the 
fact that Israel's basketball team will play in the European 
Cup final game on Saturday night, meaning any last-minute 
media blitz by Sharon will fall on deaf ears.  Interior 
Minister Avraham Poraz asked the Ambassador rhetorically 
during the April 29 semifinal basketball match, in which 
Israel beat Moscow in the presence of 10,000 cheering 
Israelis, most likely mainly Likudniks, "Wouldn't it have 
been smart if Arik (Sharon) had been here in the front row?" 
 
3.  (C) Dov Weissglas acknowledged to the Ambassador April 30 
that: "We're clearly in a battle," and that "it is hard to 
judge the outcome."  He said the plan had elicited strong 
support within Likud immediately after Sharon's April 14 
meeting with the President, but since then supporters seemed 
to have become apathetic.  Weissglas conceded that the 
opposition message, articulated by such disengagement foes as 
right-wing National Union MK Zvi Hendel, that the U.S. would 
walk away from its assurances had had a negative impact on 
some Likud voters.  The PM's strategy, therefore, according 
to Weissglas, is to motivate apathetic but supportive voters 
by focusing on the potential costs of defeat.  Weissglas 
stressed that even if the referendum fails, Sharon has no 
intention of abandoning his fight for disengagement. 
 
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Sharon Weakened 
---------------- 
 
4.  (C) Absent an unexpected victory on Sunday, Sharon will 
be a seriously weakened prime minister.  Top Likud ministers 
-- Netanyahu, Shalom and Livnat -- have mouthed hollow and 
insincere support for his plan, refusing to campaign in 
favor.  We have heard reports that Netanyahu has quietly told 
his camp not to support the plan.  Sharon's rivals clearly 
smell blood in the water, and may be plotting to use the 
referendum not only to defeat Gaza disengagement but also to 
send Sharon into retirement.  Sharon retains the support of 
his Shinui coalition partner, but Justice Minister Lapid has 
made clear his unhappiness that Sharon put the coalition's 
future into the hands of Likud's fractious voters. 
 
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Post-Vote Options 
----------------- 
 
5.  (C) If the plan is defeated, none of Sharon's options is 
good: 
 
-- Submit the plan to the Cabinet.  Echoing Weissglas, 
Sharon's political advisor Lior Horev told the press that 
Sharon will continue to push for disengagement, regardless of 
the results of the Likud referendum.  The problem is that 
defeat in the referendum could free Netanyahu, Shalom and 
Livnat from their earlier promise of support; and thus a 
Cabinet vote could also conceivably go against Sharon. 
 
-- Submit the plan to a national referendum.  This would 
require legislation that would be hard to pass, as Likud 
Knesset members would rightly see this as a repudiation of 
the party's vote. 
 
-- Modify the plan.  This would allow Sharon to argue that 
disengagement is alive, and could help him retain his seat; 
but he would find it difficult to secure Likud agreement to 
anything even remotely resembling the current, minimalist 
plan. 
 
-- Accept defeat, ditch the plan, and try to govern:  This 
would be unlike Sharon and probably not sustainable over 
time, as his weakened political position would continuously 
be exploited by rivals. 
 
-- Resign.  This would also be uncharacteristic, unless part 
of a plan to make a dramatic comeback in new national 
elections.  Sharon publicly rejected this option several days 
ago ("I am not even considering such a possibility or 
thinking in such directions.").  However, the polls show that 
Likud party members continue to give him high marks for 
leadership, even among those who will vote against 
disengagement.  These polling numbers could contain the seed 
of a future Sharon political strategy. 
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KURTZER