US embassy cable - 04ANKARA2441

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002441 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2014 
TAGS: EAID, ECIN, EU, SENV, TU 
SUBJECT: STICKER SHOCK:  50 BILLION EURO PRICE TAG TO BRING 
TURKEY UP TO EU ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS? 
 
Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch, for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary:  The European Commission's Representation in 
Ankara is pressing forward with pre-accession assistance of 
Euro 250 million in 2004, rising to Euro 1.4 billion in 2011, 
if accession negotiations are on track.  However, 
in one sector, the environment, the cost to bring Turkey up 
to EU standards could reach Euro 50 billion, according to EU 
officials.  The costs will be spread over many years and the 
EU is looking to the GOT, IFIs and the private sector to 
provide the bulk of the funding.  End Summary. 
 
 
2.  (SBU) As discussion of Turkey's candidacy for EU 
membership continues, the European Commission and its Office 
in Ankara are moving forward with their assistance program to 
prepare Turkey for the accession process.  Gurdogar Sarigul, 
who heads the Environment Project for the European Commission 
Representation in Turkey, told us the Pre-Accession 
Assistance Plan for Turkey calls for spending to increase 
from Euro 250 million this year to Euro 500 million in 2006. 
If accession negotiations proceed well, Commission spending 
for Turkey's accession could reach Euro 1.4 billion by 2011. 
 
 
 
 
3.  (C) Environment is one of the 31 chapters of the Aquis 
Communitaire that Turkey must meet to join the EU.  Sarigul 
said Turkey faces serious problems in bringing its 
environmental infrastructure up to EU standards, in part 
because it has been starved of investment.  Simon Mordue, who 
heads the EU's assistance program for Turkey, said the EU 
estimates it will cost between Euro 30 and Euro 60 billion to 
bring Turkey up to EU standards, the bulk of which will go 
for heavy infrastructure, e.g. upgrading and building new 
water treatment plants and solid waste disposal facilities. 
Sarigul said that EU officials think the actual cost will be 
on the high side of that range -- at least Euro 50 billion. 
The World Bank's director for Turkey, Marie-Helene Bricknell, 
pointed out that Turkey lags much farther behind the EU 
environmentally than did the 10 accession countries when they 
started the process, and it cost between Euro 900 and Euro 
1,700 per person to bring those countries up to EU 
environmental standards. 
 
 
4.  (SBU) Commission officials recently completed a 
comprehensive analysis of the gaps in Turkey's domestic 
legislation and administrative capabilities.  The report 
identified ten priorities -- Water Quality; Waste Management; 
Air Quality; Nature Conservation; Industrial Pollution; 
Environmental Impact Assessment Process; Environmental Noise, 
Chemicals, GMOs; and Nuclear Safety -- and 99 separate 
legislative changes or new pieces of legislation that will be 
needed to conform to the Aquis. 
 
 
5.  (SBU) What is missing from that long list of requirements 
is a thorough evaluation of the cost.  A separate assessment 
(the Integrated Environmental Approximation Strategy for the 
Turkish Republic) to be completed by the EU later this year 
will lay our in more detail the projects needed (including a 
long list of expensive infrastructure projects) and their 
estimated costs.  Sarigul said the EU hopes the GOT will 
co-finance about 25 percent of EU projects, and the EU is 
looking for a lot of help from the IBRD, EBRD and the private 
sector to help finance the projects.  Sarigul stressed that 
most of the requirements Turkey must meet in the 
environmental area are not subject to negotiation -- Turkey 
must implement a series of stringent EU directives on water, 
air and waste, and the Commission insists that transitional 
measures -- allowing more time for full compliance -- will 
not be granted. 
 
 
6.  (SBU) Sarigul said the Water Directive could prove 
especially difficult for Turkey.  For example, he pointed out 
that Turkey's GAP (Southeast Anatolia Project) presents 
significant problems.  GAP is a massive regional investment 
program, centered on a series of dams along the Tigris and 
Euphrates rivers to provide hydroelectric generation and 
water to irrigate the plains of upper Mesopotamia.  But the 
irrigation projects do not provide for adequate drainage and 
treatment of the runoff.  Expensive treatment plants and 
related infrastructure will be needed to conform to the Water 
Directive.  In addition, the Water Directive will require 
Turkey to prepare river basin management plans for its many 
river basins.  This requirement applies to transboundary 
river basins Turkey shares with EU member Greece and 
prospective member Bulgaria.  He added that this requirement 
did not apply to the Tigris-Euphrates basin, which Turkey 
shares with Syria and Iraq.  Foreign Ministry Head of 
Transboundary Water Issues Mithat Rende told us the 
government was near completion of a study that concludes that 
complying with the Water Directive will take 25 years. 
 
 
7.  (C) Comment:  The Euro 50 billion price tag needs to be 
put in context.  The cost would be spread over many years -- 
probably at least a decade -- and the EU is not planning to 
bear the bulk of the cost but is looking to the GOT, the IFIs 
and the private sector to provide most of the financing. 
What is most important about the Euro 50 billion estimate is 
that it shows the magnitude of fundamental environmental 
problems in Turkey and how little the government has done in 
recent years to address those problems.  Until there is a 
formal date to begin accession negotiations, the GOT will 
remain content to ignore the enormous environmental 
challenges.  However, a positive decision this December will 
compel the Turkish government to begin addressing such issues 
as the state of Turkey's environmental infrastructure, which 
has long been ignored.  There will be important benefits. 
The Commission estimates that the Euro 80 to 120 billion it 
cost to bring the ten new members up to EU standards will 
result in tangible benefits from Euro 134 to 681 billion. 
Turkey stands to reap similar benefits.  For example, fixing 
the water infrastructure (30 percent of Turkey's population 
does not have access to safe drinking water) will return 
significant health benefits, improving the productivity of 
Turkey's population. 
 
 
8. Minimize considered. 
EDELMAN