US embassy cable - 04RANGOON544

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000544 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, BM, NLD, National Convention 
SUBJECT: BURMA: NLD MAKES "SUGGESTIONS" (CONDITIONS) FOR 
PARTICIPATION IN CONVENTION 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 514 
     B. RANGOON 481 
     C. RANGOON 472 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  For the first time in a year the NLD CEC met 
this week as a full group, including detained leaders ASSK 
and U Tin Oo.  Over the course of two private sessions, 
facilitated by military intelligence, the party leadership 
formed a series of "suggestions" that the SPDC must take on 
board in order for the NLD to attend the upcoming National 
Convention.  Among their demands, the CEC insists on the 
release from house arrest of ASSK and U Tin Oo, the reopening 
of all NLD offices, and a timetable for the regime's road 
map.  Party leaders also seek to have their long-standing 
procedural concerns regarding the Convention addressed in a 
dialogue between ASSK and regime leaders.  Although NLD 
Chairman U Aung Shwe says if the regime agrees to NLD 
suggestions the party will attend the Convention, the free 
CEC members led us to conclude that the NLD may be 
considering attendance as a tactical move and they harbor few 
expectations the process will involve meaningful political 
dialogue.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) With two weeks remaining before the SPDC reconvenes 
the National Convention ("adjourned" since 1996), Rangoon has 
over the past week been the scene of intense deliberations 
among political opposition party leaders and, by some 
accounts, negotiations with regime envoys on conditions for 
participation in the Convention.  (Note: The National 
Convention is scheduled to reconvene on May 17, but 
registration for delegates begins on May 14.  End Note) 
 
Reunited 
-------- 
 
3. (C) On April 27, the SPDC allowed all nine members of the 
NLD Central Executive Committee (CEC) to convene and discuss 
party matters.  The two-hour session included General 
Secretary Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK) and Vice Chairman U Tin Oo, 
 
SIPDIS 
both detained under house arrest, and took place at ASSK's 
lakeside house in central Rangoon.  Military intelligence 
approved the meeting and arranged for the transfer of U Tin 
Oo from his house, but permitted the CEC to hold their 
discussions in private.  According to NLD Secretary U Lwin, 
the CEC, convening for the first time as a whole in almost 
one year, met for about two hours but came to no resolution 
on participation in the National Convention. 
 
4. (C) The entire NLD CEC met again on Thursday April 29, 
under the same conditions as on April 27, and their internal 
discussions lasted for over five hours.  P/E chief and 
visiting desk officer-designate met on April 30 with all 
seven of the "free" CEC members and discussed recent 
developments. 
 
Might We Suggest... 
------------------- 
 
5. (C) According to Chairman U Aung Shwe, "two days was 
sufficient" for the NLD leadership to meet and develop a 
party position on attendance at the National Convention. 
Although the CEC members were cautious about revealing 
details of their internal discussions, they said that the NLD 
had prepared a list of "suggestions" for the SPDC to 
consider.  The NLD leaders studiously avoided using the term 
"conditions," but insisted that the regime needed to agree to 
all of the NLD suggestions in order for the party to attend 
the upcoming Convention. 
 
6. (C) U Aung Shwe and party spokesman U Lwin said that, at a 
minimum, the regime needed to release ASSK and U Tin Oo, open 
all NLD party offices closed since May 2003 (note: a total of 
210 offices), and provide a timetable for the "road map to 
democracy."  CEC member U Nyunt Wei added that the NLD 
insisted all offices be reopened because with only the 
Rangoon headquarters in operation, "we (the NLD) are merely a 
head without a tail." 
 
7. (C) We raised with the CEC members their statement of 
April 16 (ref C) which laid out the party's specific demands 
and grievances with regard to procedural issues at the 
Convention as well as the reasons for their departure from 
the last Convention in 1995.  U Aung Shwe would not 
characterize these issues as "conditions" or "suggestions" in 
the context of their current position, but said that the 
party believed they must be the topic of discussion between 
ASSK and regime leaders before the Convention reconvenes. 
 
8. (C) "If they agree (to our suggestions), we will go to the 
Convention," U Aung Shwe said, characterizing NLD demands as 
reasonable.  However, the Chairman also said that he had no 
basis to determine how the regime would respond and observed 
that the SPDC's overall plan for a transition was more like a 
"road block" than a "road map."  He added that the NLD CEC 
had no immediate plans to meet again as whole and would only 
do so once the SPDC is prepared to respond to the NLD 
position.  The Chairman did not identify specifically how 
they had communicated their new position to the regime, but 
intimated that ASSK would soon meet with regime 
representatives. 
 
Those Who Help and Those Who Don't 
---------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) U Lwin expressed frustration with members of the 
international community ("except the U.S.," he added) that 
continued to try and pressure the NLD to attend the National 
Convention.  He said that some countries had approached the 
party to ask, "You wanted a dialogue, now why are you 
hesitating?"  U Lwin, visibly angry, said that the NLD 
represented the majority of Burmese and had every right to 
demand concessions from the junta. 
 
10. (C) U Lwin also said that some countries had intimated 
that the NLD, by prolonging the political stalemate, was 
somehow responsible for the suffering caused by international 
sanctions.  "We have suffered for sixteen years under the 
SLORC and SPDC regimes," he said, "sanctions can not be 
blamed for the (junta's) actions; you (who impose sanctions) 
should not retreat because the pressure doesn't cause any 
more suffering than we already experience."  (Note: We 
informed the CEC members that legislation had been introduced 
in Congress on April 29 to extend the U.S. import ban and 
they nodded with satisfaction.  End Note). 
 
11. (C) In response to our inquiry about any possible role 
for countries in the region, U Nyunt Wei identified ASEAN as 
"part of the problem."  He observed that few among the ASEAN 
countries adhered to democratic principles and many had 
vested interests with the current Burmese regime.  He noted 
that UN Special Envoy Razali had encouraged the NLD to "turn 
a new page" but he, U Nyunt Wei, opined that the NLD had no 
more pages to turn.  U Aung Shwe dismissed Thai efforts to 
bring the GOB to the table with some members of the 
international community and said that the "Bangkok Process 
has nothing to do with us (in the NLD)." 
 
Comment: A Tactical Move 
------------------------ 
 
12. (C) The seven elderly NLD CEC members appeared healthy 
and relaxed, despite what they described as a long week of 
discussions and developments.  Although international press 
reports have described NLD leaders as optimistic about 
attending the National Convention, the free CEC members 
declined to make any prognosis on the regime's response to 
their most recent demands.  However, Chairman U Aung Shwe was 
adamant that the NLD would not repeat the 1993 experience in 
which party delegates attended the Convention while ASSK was 
under house arrest.  Although U Aung Shwe concluded that if 
the regime agrees to NLD suggestions the party will attend 
the Convention, his comments, and those of his colleagues, on 
the regime's road map led us to conclude that the NLD may be 
considering attendance as a tactical move and they harbor few 
expectations the process will involve meaningful political 
dialogue.  End Comment. 
Martinez