US embassy cable - 04BRATISLAVA437

C O N F I D E N T I A L  BRATISLAVA 000437 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, PINR, LO 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT-ELECT GASPAROVIC SAYING THE RIGHT THINGS 
 
REF: BRATISLAVA 407 
 
Classified By: Amb. Ronald Weiser for reason 1.4 b and d 
 
1.  (U) Introduction/Summary.  On April 17, Ivan Gasparovic 
beat former Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar in the 
presidential elections runoff.  In the final round, 
Gasparovic picked up more than 637,000 votes over his showing 
in the first round, receiving support of most of those who 
voted for the first round losers, while Meciar only increased 
his total vote count by about 72,000.  Gasparovic, the 
candidate of a confederation of nationalist parties and 
endorsed by Robert Fico's Smer, won in all eight voting 
regions and in 42 out of 50 districts.  Since winning, 
Gasparovic has clarified his views on various issues and has 
stated that the worldwide threat of terrorism has justified 
the presence of Slovak troops in Iraq and that he will try to 
support social and economic reforms while reducing their 
negative impact on citizens.  President Schuster will leave 
office on June 15, when Gasparovic is inaugurated to serve a 
five-year term.  End Introduction/Summary. 
 
Gasparovic Wins as the Lesser Evil 
---------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) The presidential runoff held on April 17 was widely 
viewed as a battle between the lesser of two evils. 
Gasparovic was able to pull out the upset over Meciar, who 
has a stable and disciplined electorate, because Gasparovic 
did not have the negative name recognition associated with 
Meciar.  Although Gasparovic was closely associated with 
Meciar during the 1990s, Gasparovic gained votes from people 
who supported Schuster, Foreign Minister Kukan, former 
Ambassador to the U.S. Butora, and Christian Democrat 
candidate Frantisek Miklosko in the first round.  Gasparovic 
would not have won without votes from Prime Minister 
Dzurinda's Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU), Bela 
Bugar's Hungarian Coalition Party (SMK), and Pavol 
Hrusovsky's Christian Democratic Movement (KDH).  These 
voters chose to ignore their party leaders instructions to 
stay away from the polls.  Many instead chose to vote for 
Gasparovic, whom they viewed as the lesser of two evils. 
 
3.  (C) Several SDKU and ANO contacts told emboffs that 
Meciar, in spite of his murky past, would now behave 
"responsibly" and is more predictable that the lesser-known 
Gasparovic, who was supported by Fico's populist Smer.  SDKU 
MP Roman Vavrik told emboffs that he expected that Gasparovic 
would assist Fico in reach his goal of becoming prime 
minister, even if that meant early elections.  (See reftel on 
Fico's goals.) 
 
Generally Saying the Right Things 
--------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U) On April 19, Gasparovic--who once opposed deployment 
of troops to Iraq--told the press that the threat of 
worldwide terrorism justified the presence of Slovak troops 
in Iraq.  He added that each state has an obligation to 
become involved in the fight against terrorism. 
 
5.  (U) Gasparovic has stated publicly that he does not "owe" 
anything to Smer, despite the party's public support of his 
candidacy.  Fico has echoed those comments, adding that Smer 
will not look to the new president for preferential treatment. 
 
6.  (U) Gasparovic has distanced himself for the time being 
from his alliance with the nationalists that he forged last 
year.  He told the press that the Alliance of Slovak National 
Powers, which he founded, may become a political party in the 
future that would be committed to modern European democratic 
principles.  In addition, he has stated that EU accession 
will be a "watershed" event in Slovak-Hungarian relations as 
it will contribute to resolving several issues.  He believes 
that there are sufficient legal rights to ensure the survival 
and promote the development of the Hungarian minority in 
Slovakia, adding that they do not need special treatment. 
 
7.  (U) He has stressed that he will work to improve the 
relationships between the prime minister, the president, and 
the speaker of parliament in the coming months, acknowledging 
that as president, he should not interfere in the coalition's 
political disputes.  Gasparovic added that it is the 
president's role to submit proposals and seek agreement with 
the government and the parliament. 
 
Comments of Concern 
------------------- 
 
8.  (SBU) Gasparovic, whose only foreign language is Russian, 
has already indicated his interest in developing 
Slovak-Russian economic ties.  (Note:  He will probably 
receive strong support from Smer as Fico has also been 
interested in increasing business contacts between Moscow and 
Bratislava.) 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (C) Presidential elections conveyed a positive message in 
spite of the surprising choice of candidates--democratic 
instincts of Slovak voters are more deeply rooted than many 
believed.  Lacking any clear recommendations from their party 
leaders, voters recognized the extent of damage Meciar's 
comeback could do both domestically and abroad, and mobilized 
to prevent it.  Although many questions remain about 
Gasparovic, he has publicly apologized for past mistakes and 
distanced himself from Meciar's style of government.  Many 
politicians within SDKU and KDH fear that Gasparovic will 
work closely with Fico.  To date, Gasparovic has not made any 
statements on Roma issues but KDH fears that his nationalist 
tendencies may only further fan existing tensions between 
Slovak and Roma communities. 
WEISER 
 
 
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