US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV2458

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002458 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI INTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: SHARON'S CAMPAIGN: TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE?  LATEST 
POLLS SAY YES 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 2421 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norm Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b) and ( 
d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary.  Results published on April 29 from two 
major media polls show 47-percent-to-39-percent and 
45-percent-to-42-percent Likud majorities against PM Sharon's 
disengagement plan, reversing the earlier polls that showed 
similar majorities voting in favor of the plan.  Both polls 
also show that a 14 percent group of fence-straddlers could 
determine the plan's fate.  A private poll conducted the 
evening of April 26, and whose results have not yet been made 
public, showed the tally at 55/38 percent against, among 
Likudniks who are certain they will vote.  Likud Party 
activists and media pundits attribute much of Sharon's 
problems to a weak campaign, punctuated by what are seen as 
non-credible threats of resignation from his son and of a 
doomed U.S.-Israel relationship, if the plan is defeated.  As 
Sharon strategizes April 29 with advisors and enters the last 
72 hours before the vote, he will have to play a hard 
catch-up to his opponents' three-week-long door-to-door 
campaign.  End summary. 
 
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Polls Show Trouble for Sharon 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU)  Yedioth Ahronoth and Ma'ariv polls conducted on 
April 28, show 47/39 and 45/42 percent Likud majorities 
opposing Sharon's disengagement plan in the May 2 referendum. 
 The one hopeful sign for Sharon's plan is that both polls 
show that approximately 14 percent of Likud voters are 
undecided and therefore could turn the tide either way.  Also 
somewhat encouraging for disengagement supporters -- but less 
reliable -- is a Hebrew news website poll showing that of the 
over 13,000 Likud surfers who voted on the website, 58 
percent supported the plan and 42 percent opposed it. 
According to some observers, achieving a majority for the 
plan may depend on Sharon's ability to motivate supporters to 
actually vote.  There will reportedly be over 440 polling 
stations in some 170 locales throughout the country.  Polls 
will be open from 8:00 a.m. until 10:00 p.m., with over 160 
lawyers and 1,300 security guards observing the vote. 
According to Likud MK and disengagement supporter Majallie 
Whbee, it is convenient for Likud voters to reach their 
polling stations. 
 
3.  (C) As predicted, in April 28 interviews given before the 
poll results were published, Sharon depicted the referendum 
as a confidence vote in his premiership, stating April 28 
that: "Anyone who believes in me must vote for the 
disengagement.... You can't be for me and against the plan I 
am promoting.... Those who want me have to vote with me." 
Knowing the hesitation Likud voters may have in going against 
the popular PM, key disengagement foe and 
Minister-without-Portfolio Uzi Landau has been trying to 
de-link Sharon from his plan, telling channel 10 news April 
28 that opposition to disengagement does not mean opposition 
to Sharon.  Indeed, most anti-disengagement slogans have 
avoided negative rhetoric against Sharon, with one even 
stating: "We love you, Sharon, but we're voting against." 
 
4.  (C) In recent interviews, Sharon has scorned 
disengagement opponents for risking the friendship of the 
United States, and even resorted to the old-fashioned guilt 
trip by claiming opponents would cause a "hard blow to the 
prestige of the U.S. President... who faces world terror and 
thinks this plan is excellent."  In an April 28 radio 
interview, Sharon also managed to tie his plan to Israel's 
economic well-being, alluding to possible economic strife, 
including investment and stock market woes if the plan fails. 
 (Note: Israel's financial market, while jittery, has not yet 
reacted strongly to the upcoming referendum.  Tel Aviv stocks 
dropped a little over one percent each day April 28-29.  The 
shekel-dollar rate did not change appreciably in that 
period.) 
 
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Olmert Campaigning 
------------------ 
 
5.  (C)  Media commentators and Likud activists attribute 
much of Sharon's difficulties to his lethargic and tardy PR 
campaign, which cannot compete with the armies of 
in-your-face campaigning opponents.  One channel 10 news 
commentator, when asked to comment on Sharon's campaign, 
exclaimed: "Campaign, what campaign?  There is no campaign." 
The one major visible symbol of Sharon's campaign remains 
D/PM Ehud Olmert who was broadcast on channel 10 news 
traveling on his lone campaign bus to Likud branches in the 
north with a handful of Likud activists.  A chatty Olmert 
seemed undaunted by his monumental task. 
 
6.  (C) Sharon has endeavored to remain humble but upbeat in 
his interviews, in one reportedly declaring that: "It won't 
be simple, but I'll win."  He has also painted a more cheery 
picture of the extent of active ministerial support, 
reportedly claiming that Ministers Tzipi Livni, Meir 
Sheetrit, and Gideon Ezra have joined his campaign, and 
noting that "(FM) Silvan (Shalom) is working with us now." 
The question, however, is whether the slow momentum he may be 
developing can compete in the final 72 hours with the 
opposition's three-week campaign of posters, slogans, 
religious leaders' support, and door-to-door campaigners. 
Likud MK Majallie Whbee told poloff on April 29 that 
observers should expect a more energized pro-disengagement 
campaign in the coming days.  Like Sharon, he refused to be 
discouraged, stating firmly, "everything will turn out all 
right." 
 
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