US embassy cable - 04ABUJA763

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000763 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, NI 
SUBJECT: CNPP PROMISES MAY 3 DEMONSTRATION 
 
REF: ABUJA 709 
 
CLASSIFIED BY ACTING DCM DEAN WOODEN FOR REASONS 1.5 B AND D. 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  The opposition Conference of Nigerian 
Political Parties (CNPP) is moving ahead with its plans to 
stage a protest march on May 3, supported by civil society, 
religious, and ethnic organizations, and says the lack of 
police clearance will not stop the demonstration.  The CNPP 
produced a list of demands, including President Obasanjo's 
resignation and "free and fair" elections, and some of the 
biggest names in Nigerian politics and civil society are 
saying they will participate.  CNPP Coordinator Balarabe Musa 
told PolOff that the goal for this rally is to show that "the 
leaders are willing to lead."  2003 presidential candidates 
Buhari and Ojukwu may well try to lead, and a big turnout 
would be a big headache for the GON.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) CNPP, the Yoruba ethnic organization Afenifere, 
northern Nigeria's Arewa Consultative Forum, the southeast's 
Igbo National Assembly and other groups announced the 
establishment of an umbrella organization to coordinate 
planning for the May 3 march in Abuja, and may also organize 
a demonstration at the same time in Lagos.  Among the list of 
supporters are the second-tier leaders of the Nigeria Labour 
Congress, who have encouraged NLC rank and file to 
participate individually.  Nigerians United for Democracy 
(NUD), the new organization, said it plans to conduct this 
first rally and will follow it with protests "throughout the 
country."  Conflicting press reports claim various groups 
support or do not support the protest. 
 
GOALS AND LEADERS 
 
3. (C) NUD attorney Rotimi Williams told PolOff April 29 that 
the group planned to go ahead with the march.  Balarabe Musa 
(the CNPP coordinator, former Kaduna State governor and PRP 
presidential candidate) told PolOff on April 23 that NUD 
expectations for this initial rally are modest.  "We hope to 
show Nigerians that "the leaders are willing to lead."  While 
some call the rally a "Two Million Man March," Musa said that 
he expected "thousands" to participate and would be satisfied 
with a turnout of 50 people "if the leaders are there."  Musa 
said ANPP Presidential Candidate Muhammadu Buhari, APGA 
Presidential Candidate Chukwuemeka Ojukwu, APP 1999 
Presidential Candidate Olu Falae, NADECO Chieftain Anthony 
Enahoro and respected gadfly Gani Fawehinmi had all been 
invited to play prominent roles at the rally.  He said Buhari 
and Ojukwu plan to participate and Falae was expected to 
accept.  Other sources agree that Buhari and Ojukwu will 
attend in person and that the Fawehinmi is working behind the 
scenes to help the organizers. 
 
4. (C) Musa told PolOff, "We hope to develop the momentum" to 
sweep Obasanjo out of office and initiate open elections "on 
the style of recent events in Georgia."  This rally was the 
first step in efforts to give Nigerians a way to express 
their dissatisfaction with the "rigged elections of 2003 and 
2004," and with President Obasanjo's "imperious style of 
governance."  Musa said the protest is meant to be a 
"peaceful and nonviolent" method of demanding democracy from 
the government.  The CNPP had produced a list of demands, 
including the resignation of President Obasanjo and the 
conduct of free and fair elections, in advance of the April 
19 anniversary of the 2003 Presidential elections.  The CNPP 
delayed holding the protest on that day, according to them, 
"to continue coordination with the numerous groups that want 
to take part." 
 
NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT RESPONSE? 
 
5. (C) GON spokesmen still oppose the rally (reftel) and 
organizers do not have a permit for the demonstration.  The 
organizers say they are moving ahead without any police 
permit, but have asked the police instead to provide security 
for the marchers.  According to one police official, the 
group did apply for a permit to stage the rally, and the 
Deputy Inspector for Abuja accepted delivery of the request 
but told the organizers that he could not take action on it. 
"The Inspector General (of Police) will make the decision," 
he reportedly advised the organizers.  Some of the organizers 
have complained that security in Abuja already has been 
tightened and many buses of potential demonstrators are being 
turned back on the highways into town.  (NOTE:  The GON 
normally restricts crowds going to the National Mosque in 
Abuja on Fridays by limiting bus traffic on the highways into 
town.  END NOTE.) 
ROBERTS