US embassy cable - 01HANOI985

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 07 HANOI 000985 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, DRL, INR 
NSC FOR EAST ASIAN DIRECTORATE 
SECDEF FOR ISA/EAP STERN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/13/2016 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, VM, DPOL 
SUBJECT: POLITBURO MEMBERS WERE PORTRAYED AS UNITED IN OFFICIAL MEDIA IN RUN-UP TO PARTY CONGRESS 
 
REF: A) HANOI 965     B) HANOI 952 
 
1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR JAMES BRUNO; 
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
2. (C) SUMMARY/INTRODUCTION: OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS, IN 
THE RUN-UP TO THE JUST-COMPLETED NINTH COMMUNIST PARTY 
CONGRESS, VIETNAM'S OUTGOING POLITBURO MEMBERS WERE 
PORTRAYED IN STATE-CONTROLLED MEDIA AS UNITED IN THE 
PARTY'S EFFORTS TO RALLY SUPPORT FOR THE PROGRAM OF THE 
CONGRESS.  BEHIND THE SCENES, THOUGH, A FIERCE INTERNAL 
STRUGGLE RAGED THAT RESULTED IN THE REPLACEMENT OF GENERAL 
SECRETARY PHIEU AND SIX OTHER POLITBURO MEMBERS (REFTELS). 
 
SIPDIS 
DURING THIS PERIOD, ALL SENIOR LEADERS JOURNEYED AROUND THE 
COUNTRY TO ATTEND PROVINCIAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL CONGRESSES. 
SOME OF THESE LEADERS, SUCH AS DEPUTY PM CAM AND HO CHI 
MINH ACADEMY HEAD BINH, CLEARLY RECOGNIZED AND ACCEPTED 
THEY WERE WINDING UP THEIR POLITBURO CAREERS.  OTHERS, 
HOWEVER, SUCH AS PHIEU, FATHERLAND FRONT LEADER DUYET, 
DEFENSE MINISTER TRA, AND ARMY POLITICAL COMMISSAR NGAN, 
WOULD HAVE KNOWN THEY WERE FIGHTING FOR THEIR POLITICAL 
LIVES.  BY CONTRAST, THE OTHER RISING STARS OF THE CPV -- 
SUCH AS SOUTHERN REFORMERS TRIET AND DUNG, AS WELL AS 
NORTHERN IDEOLOGUE TRONG -- WERE CONSOLIDATING THEIR 
POSITIONS CONFIDENT THEY WOULD BE LEFT STANDING. 
 
3. (C) SUMMARY (CONT'D): NOW THAT A NEW LINEUP HAS BEEN 
REVEALED, IT IS INSTRUCTIVE TO ANALYZE WHAT BROUGHT THE 
LEADERSHIP TO THIS POINT, AND HOW THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  00985  01 OF 07  251102Z 
ACTIVITIES OF THE LARGELY SECRETIVE POLITBURO CONTRIBUTED 
TO THE FALL OR MAINTENANCE IN POWER OF ITS INDIVIDUAL 
MEMBERS.  IN PARTICULAR, WE SEE THE RISE IN RANK OF TRIET 
AND DUNG AS FORETELLING THEIR SOON-EMERGENCE AS THE 
CHAMPIONS OF REFORM AT THE MOST SENIOR RANKS.  THIS CABLE 
IS THE SECOND OF A TWO-PART SERIES DOCUMENTING THE PUBLIC 
APPEARANCES OF POLITBURO MEMBERS IN THE OFFICIAL VIETNAMESE 
PRINT MEDIA SINCE OCTOBER 1, 2000.  (REF A ANALYZED THE NEW 
LEADERSHIP LINEUP, AND REF B INCLUDED DETAILED PROFILES OF 
PHIEU AND HIS SUCCESSOR, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHAIRMAN NONG 
DUC MANH.)  THIS CABLE ANALYZES THE REMAINING 16 MEMBERS OF 
THE OUTGOING POLITBURO. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
"PUBLIC AND PRIVATE FACES" OF THE OUTGOING POLITBURO 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
4. (SBU) WITH THE NEW POLITBURO AND CENTRAL COMMITTEE 
OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED APRIL 22, IT IS AN INSTRUCTIVE MOMENT 
TO ANALYZE WHAT BROUGHT THE SECRETIVE VIETNAMESE LEADERSHIP 
TO THIS POINT.  AS PART OF THE EMBASSY'S ONGOING TRACKING 
PROJECT OF THE PUBLIC FACES OF THE POLITBURO IN THE 
VIETNAMESE MEDIA OVER THE PAST YEAR, WE HAVE DOCUMENTED THE 
APPEARANCES OF THE MOST SENIOR COMMUNIST PARTY (CPV) 
MEMBERS IN VIETNAM'S MAJOR DAILY PAPERS.  WE HAVE FOCUSED 
PARTICULARLY ON THE CPV MOUTHPIECE "NHAN DAN" (THE PEOPLE) 
AND TWO LEADING DAILIES IN THE LARGEST CITIES: "NEW HANOI" 
AND "SAIGON LIBERATION."  WHILE NOT A COMPREHENSIVE 
LISTING, THIS GIVES US A GOOD SURVEY OF HOW THE LEADERSHIP 
IS FEATURED IN THE MOST PROMINENT OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  00985  01 OF 07  251102Z 
5. (SBU) IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS, FROM OCTOBER 1-MARCH 31, 
IN THE RUN-UP TO THE NINTH COMMUNIST PARTY CONGRESS, WE 
CONTINUED TO SEE THE SAME TRENDS DOCUMENTED PREVIOUSLY: 
ROUGHLY HALF OF THE POLITBURO HAVE POSITIONS WITH LARGELY 
"PUBLIC" FACES THAT INVOLVE SIGNIFICANT APPEARANCES IN THE 
PUBLIC EYE, WHILE THE OTHER HALF WORK LARGELY OUT OF THE 
PUBLIC EYE IN POSITIONS DEALING WITH INTERNAL CPV AFFAIRS. 
FOR THIS ANALYSIS, WE EXAMINED THE LEADERSHIP IN THE 
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: 
 
-- A) "THE ONCE AND FUTURE LEADERS" WHO THROUGHOUT THE PAST 
YEAR HAVE OCCUPIED THE TOP SLOTS, HAVE HAD HIGH PUBLIC 
VISIBILITY, AND CONTINUE TO HAVE IMPORTANT POSITIONS IN THE 
NEW POLITBURO; 
 
-- B) "SENIOR RETIRING PUBLIC FIGURES" WHO WERE THE 
OUTGOING POLITBURO ELDERS WITH HAD RELATIVELY HIGH PUBLIC 
PROFILES, BUT BECAUSE OF AGE, HEALTH AND/OR POOR 
PERFORMANCE WERE REPLACED AT THE CONGRESS; 
 
-- C) "CONTINUING POLITBURO MEMBERS WITH LOW PUBLIC 
PROFILES" WHO REMAINED IN THE POLITBURO DESPITE LOW PUBLIC 
PROFILES; 
 
 
-- D) "MEMBERS WITH LOW PUBLIC PROFILES WHO WERE REPLACED," 
WHO INCLUDE THOSE POLITBURO MEMBERS WHO WERE ONLY RARELY 
FEATURED IN THE MEDIA AND WHO WERE RETIRED AT THE CPV 
CONGRESS. 
 
END SUMMARY/INTRODUCTION. 
 
------------------------------- 
OTHER "ONCE AND FUTURE LEADERS" 
------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) TRAN DUC LUONG, 63, THE STATE PRESIDENT, MAINTAINED 
HIS SECOND-RANKED POSITION IN THE NEW POLITBURO LINEUP. 
THERE HAD BEEN GREAT SPECULATION IN RECENT MONTHS ABOUT 
WHETHER LUONG WOULD SURVIVE IN POWER OR EVEN BE PROMOTED TO 
GENERAL SECRETARY; IN THE END, THIS STEADY IF UNSPECTACULAR 
OFFICIAL REMAINED IN PLACE.  LUONG, WHO WAS FEATURED ON 64 
OCCASIONS IN THE OFFICIAL PRESS DURING THE OCTOBER-MARCH 
PERIOD, WAS GENERALLY PRESENTED IN PROTOCOL SITUATIONS 
GREETING FOREIGN LEADERS, THOUGH HE TOO (LIKE ALL OTHER 
POLITBURO MEMBERS) ATTENDED PROVINCIAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL 
CPV CONGRESSES THROUGHOUT THE FALL.  LIKE PHIEU, LUONG 
FIGURED PROMINENTLY IN COVERAGE OF HANOI'S 990TH 
ANNIVERSARY IN EARLY OCTOBER.  HE RECEIVED ASEAN 
INFORMATION MINISTERS (OCT. 13); MET PRESIDENT CLINTON 
(NOV. 17); VISITED CHINA AND MET WITH JIANG ZEMIN, ZHU 
RONGJI AND LI PENG (DEC. 25-29); RECEIVED THE CAMBODIAN 
FOREIGN MINISTER (FEB. 6), THE SINGAPOREAN PRESIDENT (FEB. 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  00985  02 OF 07  251103Z 
8), THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT (MARCH 2) AND THE THAI FOREIGN 
MINISTER (MARCH 8).  HIS SCHEDULED TRIP TO CAMBODIA WAS 
ABORTED BECAUSE THE BORDER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO 
COUNTRIES REMAINED INTRACTABLE.  HE LIKEWISE VISITED 
FLOODED REGIONS OF THE MEKONG DELTA AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS 
IN LATE OCTOBER, ATTENDED THE HANOI AND HO CHI MINH CITY 
CPV CONGRESSES, ADDRESSED THE NGHE AN PARTY CONGRESS (JAN. 
19), AND WAS FEATURED ATTENDING THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE 
PLENUMS.  NOW THAT THE CONGRESS HAS CONCLUDED, RUMORS 
CIRCULATE THAT LUONG COULD BE SWITCHED TO NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
CHAIRMAN NEXT MONTH, WITH MANH TAKING THE COMBINED 
POSITIONS OF GENERAL SECRETARY AND PRESIDENT.  (HOWEVER, IT 
SEEMS MORE LIKELY DUNG, TRIET OR AN WOULD MOVE TO THIS 
POST.)  OTHER REPORTS SUGGEST LUONG MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR 
A YEAR OR TWO, AND THEN REPLACED, LIKE KHAI, BY A YOUNGER 
COLLEAGUE. 
 
7. (C) PRIME MINISTER PHAN VAN KHAI, WHO IS 67, WAS THE 
OLDEST SENIOR LEADER TO SURVIVE PAST THE PARTY CONGRESS. 
RANKED THIRD IN BOTH THE OLD AND NEW CPV RANKS, KHAI WAS 
WIDELY ASSUMED TO BE ON HIS WAY OUT DURING MUCH OF THE PAST 
SIX MONTHS.  HE OFFERED TO RESIGN TWICE IN THE PAST YEAR 
AND SEEMED DISPIRITED AND BLASE IN MANY OF HIS OFFICIAL 
APPEARANCES WE WITNESSED.  (COMMENT: IN RETROSPECT, WE 
SURMISE HIS LONG BITTER CONFLICT WITH PHIEU MAY HAVE LED TO 
HIS DEEP FRUSTRATION, AND IN THE POST-PHIEU ERA, KHAI MAY 
HAVE A CHANCE FOR A NEW RENAISSANCE.  END COMMENT.) 
DESPITE KHAI'S FRUSTRATIONS, DURING THE PAST SIX MONTHS HE 
KEPT A BUSY SCHEDULE BEFITTING THE HEAD OF GOVERNMENT. 
FEATURED 71 TIMES IN THE PRESS, HE WAS DEPICTED CHAIRING 
THE INTERAGENCY GOVERNMENT COUNCIL IN ITS MONTHLY MEETINGS, 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  00985  02 OF 07  251103Z 
AND HE WAS PICTURED AT THE OPENING OF THE PLENUM MEETINGS 
OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE AND THE OPENING OF THE NATIONAL 
ASSEMBLY SESSION IN OCTOBER.  HE CHAIRED MEETINGS TO 
ADDRESS THE CONSEQUENCES OF FLOODING IN SOUTHERN PROVINCES 
AND TO SPUR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN RURAL REGIONS.  HE GAVE 
THE KEYNOTE ADDRESS TO THE HO CHI MINH CITY PARTY CONGRESS 
DEC. 19, ATTENDED THE HANOI CONGRESS DEC. 27, ADDRESSED THE 
PUBLIC SECURITY FORCES PARTY CONGRESS JAN. 4, AND SPOKE TO 
THE VIETNAM FATHERLAND FRONT MEETING IN HCMC IN FEBRUARY. 
HE HOSTED VISITING PRIME MINISTERS AND PRESIDENTS FROM 
LUXEMBOURG, ALGERIA, INDIA, AND RUSSIA, AS WELL AS THE 
UNESCO DIRECTOR GENERAL, AND HE MET WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON 
IN NOVEMBER.  ON NOVEMBER 24 HE REPRESENTED VIETNAM AT THE 
4TH INFORMAL ASEAN SUMMIT.  HE MADE PROVINCIAL WORKING 
VISITS TO HAIPHONG, YEN BAI, HA NAM, BA RIA-VUNG TAU, DONG 
NAI, SON LA, AND LAI CHAU, THE LATTER WHERE HE TOURED 
EARTHQUAKE-STRICKEN AREAS.  (COMMENT: FROM KHAI'S RATHER 
PERFUNCTORY APPEARANCES IN PUBLIC OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS, 
ONE WOULD NOT HAVE PREDICTED SEVERAL MONTHS AGO HE WOULD 
SURVIVE PAST THE CONGRESS.  IN THE END, THE BACKROOM 
POLITICKING THAT BROUGHT MANH TO POWER AND DUMPED HIS 
NEMESIS PHIEU LEFT KHAI STANDING AT THE END OF THE 
BLOODLETTING.  END COMMENT.)  A NUMBER OF SOURCES, 
INCLUDING FORMER SENIOR ADVISOR VO VAN KIET, HAVE SUGGESTED 
KHAI WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL NEXT YEAR, PERHAPS THE 
FALL, WHEN A NEW PRIME MINISTER IS EXPECTED TO BE NAMED. 
 
8. (C) HO CHI MINH CITY COMMUNIST PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN MINH 
TRIET, 58, WAS PROMOTED TO FOURTH IN THE NEW POLITBURO 
RANKINGS, FROM HIS PREVIOUS POSITION OF SIXTEENTH OF 18. 
CONSISTENTLY RANKED WITH ASSEMBLY SPEAKER NONG DUC MANH AS 
ONE OF THE MOST POPULAR LEADERS IN THE POLITBURO, TRIET 
APPEARS TO HAVE BENEFITED FROM HIS POPULARITY AMONG 
SOUTHERN REFORMERS, INCLUDING SENIOR ADVISOR VO VAN KIET, 
WHO PRESSED HIM AS A POSSIBLE GENERAL SECRETARY.  TRIET WAS 
FEATURED 29 TIMES IN NATIONAL MEDIA.  LIKE HANOI PARTY 
CHIEF TRONG, HE PRESIDED OVER DISTRICT CONGRESSES OF THE 
HCMC PARTY LEADING UP TO HIS READING OF THE DRAFT POLITICAL 
REPORT AT THE DECEMBER 19 CITY CONGRESS, AND HE SPOKE AT 
SEVERAL OF THE CITY'S DISTRICT MILITARY CONGRESSES AS WELL. 
DECEMBER 23 HE WAS FORMALLY REELECTED CHAIR OF THE HCMC 
PARTY.  HE RECEIVED VISITING DELEGATIONS FROM THE CHINESE 
COMMUNIST PARTY IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER.  TRIET REVIEWED 
THE ANTI-POVERTY PROGRAMS OF HIS CITY, VISITED FLOOD- 
STRICKEN PROVINCES ON THE CITY'S OUTSKIRTS IN OCTOBER, MET 
WITH THE CPV YOUTH REPRESENTATIVES, MADE A SPEECH 
COMMEMORATING THE CPV'S FOUNDING IN FEBRUARY, AND WELCOMED 
THE FATHERLAND FRONT AND CONSTITUENT GROUPS FOR MEETINGS IN 
HCMC.  ACCORDING TO SOME SOURCES, TRIET HAS BEEN DESIGNATED 
AS THE LIKELY SUCCESSOR TO KHAI AS PRIME MINISTER.  (THE 
OTHER PRIME CANDIDATE IS DEPUTY PM DUNG, WHO ALSO WAITS IN 
THE WINGS AS A YOUNG SOUTHERN REFORMER.  BECAUSE TRIET AND 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  00985  03 OF 07  251103Z 
DUNG HAVE SIMILAR PEDIGREES, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EXPECTED 
GOVERNMENTAL CHANGES TO BE ANNOUNCED BY THE NATIONAL 
ASSEMBLY NEXT MONTH MAY SUGGEST WHO IS THE BEST-POSITIONED 
"HEIR" TO KHAI.)  REPORTS CIRCULATE THAT TRIET (OR DUNG) 
MAY MOVE TO REPLACE MANH AS NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHAIRMAN. 
BOTH INCUMBENT PM KHAI AND HIS PREDECESSOR KIET FIRST 
SERVED AS DEPUTY PM BEFORE MOVING UP, AND IF TRIET INDEED 
IS BEING GROOMED FOR PM, HE MIGHT MOVE NEXT MONTH TO BECOME 
FIRST DEPUTY PM. (UNDER THIS SCENARIO, DUNG MIGHT MOVE TO 
THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY OR ANOTHER SENIOR POST.) 
 
9. (C) FIRST DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER NGUYEN TAN DUNG, 51, 
RETURNING TO THE FIFTH-RANKING SLOT HE HELD THREE YEARS AGO 
(BEFORE A NOMINAL "DEMOTION"), ALSO RANKS AS ONE OF THE 
"NEXT GENERATION" OF LEADERS IN THE CPV.  HE PLAYED AN 
IMPORTANT, BEHIND-THE-SCENES ROLE IN REACHING AGREEMENT TO 
INITIAL THE BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT WITH THE U.S. IN THE 
SUMMER OF 1999, AND IN THAT, AND IN OTHER DIFFICULT ISSUES, 
HE HAS PLAYED KEY "FIX-IT" ROLES TO GET THINGS DONE.  UNTIL 
LAST YEAR HE SERVED AS ACTING HEAD OF THE STATE BANK AND 
RECEIVED GENERALLY GOOD MARKS FOR HIS SERVICE, THOUGH HE 
HAD NO BACKGROUND IN BANKING PRIOR TO THAT EXPERIENCE. 
SHORTLY AFTER UNREST BROKE OUT FROM LARGE DEMONSTRATIONS IN 
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS IN EARLY FEBRUARY, DUNG WAS 
DISPATCHED TO GIA LAI TO MONITOR AND HELP MANAGE THE 
SITUATION ON THE GROUND.  WE KNOW LITTLE OF WHAT HE 
ACTUALLY DID, AND THE VISIT WAS NOT REPORTED IN STATE 
MEDIA.  HOWEVER, TO OUR EYE THESE ASSIGNMENTS REVEAL HE IS 
A KEY MEMBER OF THE LEADERSHIP, THOUGH IT PPEARS HE HAS 
BOTH STRONG SUPPORTERS AS WELL AS OPPONENTS AMONG THE 
LEADERSHIP.  (SOME MAY RESENT HIS RAPID RISE: A POLITBURO 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  00985  03 OF 07  251103Z 
MEMBER ONLY SINCE 1996, DUNG ROSE TO FIFTH IN THE CPV RANKS 
BEFORE BEING BOUNCED TO 15TH IN THE FORMAL ORDER IN 1997 
AROUND THE TIME OF PHIEU'S ASCENT TO POWER.  IT WILL BE 
INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW DUNG FARES IN THE POST-PHIEU ERA.) 
DURING THE TRACKING PERIOD, DUNG WAS FEATURED 34 TIMES, 
LARGELY IN HIS ROLE AS DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER WITH A MAJOR 
ROLE IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC AFFAIRS.  DUNG ACTS FOR PM KHAI AS 
NEEDED; HE ROUTINELY READS THE GOVERNMENT'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC 
REPORT TO THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY FOR ONE OF THE TWO SESSIONS 
EACH YEAR, AND HE CO-CHAIRED THE GOVERNMENT'S CABINET 
MEETING IN OCTOBER.  HE CHAIRED A CONFERENCE ON DEALING 
WITH FLOODS IN DONG THAP PROVINCE AND MEETINGS ON 
IMPLEMENTING THE 2001 BUDGET, AND HE HELD A WIDE VARIETY OF 
MEETING WITH VISITING OFFICIALS, SUCH AS THE  DIRECTOR OF 
THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK.  HE VISITED QUANG NINH PROVINCE 
WITH PHIEU IN OCTOBER, AND QUANG NGAI, DAKLAK, BINH PHUOC, 
AND OTHER PROVINCES ON HIS OWN.  IN MID-MARCH HE CHAIRED A 
CONFERENCE ON INVESTMENT IN VIETNAM, WHICH WAS ORGANIZED IN 
SINGAPORE. 
 
10. (C) HANOI COMMUNIST PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN PHU TRONG, 56, 
PROMOTED TO SEVENTH IN POLITBURO RANKS, WAS ON THE SHORT 
LIST FOR GENERAL SECRETARY.  BUT IN THE END, TRONG, WHO 
FORMALLY WAS LAST IN THE PREVIOUS POLITBURO, MAY HAVE BEEN 
CONSIDERED NOT EXPERIENCED ENOUGH FOR THE TOP POST.  ONE OF 
THE POLITBURO'S MORE IDEOLOGICAL MEMBERS, HAVING SERVED AS 
HEAD OF IDEOLOGICAL AFFAIRS AND AS EDITOR OF THE "COMMUNIST 
REVIEW" JOURNAL, TRONG APPEARS TO BE IN THE MOLD OF FORMER 
GENERAL SECRETARY PHIEU.  HE MAY YET BE DESTINED FOR HIGHER 
THINGS, DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MORE IDEOLOGICAL 
FACTION WITHIN THE NEW CENTRAL COMMITTEE.  TRONG WAS 
DEPICTED ON 35 DATES IN "THE PEOPLE'S DAILY."  HE PLAYED A 
PROMINENT NATIONAL ROLE IN HELPING OVERSEE THE DRAFTING AND 
EDITING OF THE POLITICAL REPORT, ONE OF THE SEMINAL 
DOCUMENTS THAT WAS PRESENTED AT THE PARTY CONGRESS APRIL 
19.  TRONG PRESIDED OVER MEETINGS OF THE HANOI PARTY 
COMMITTEE AND ATTENDED DISTRICT CONGRESSES OF THE HANOI CPV 
LEADING UP TO HIS OPENING OF THE CITY'S CONGRESS DECEMBER 
13 AND HIS READING OF THE DRAFT POLITICAL REPORT TO THE 
HANOI PARTY GATHERING ON DEC. 27.  TRONG WAS PRIMARILY 
DEPICTED IN THE MEDIA MANAGING THE AFFAIRS OF THE HANOI 
PARTY AND INVOLVED IN CITY ISSUES.  HE PRESIDED OVER 
OCTOBER FESTIVITIES FOR THE 990TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE 
FOUNDING OF HANOI; HELD WORKING SESSIONS WITH THE HANOI 
LABOR DEPARTMENT, WITH THE RED CROSS (CONCERNING FLOOD 
PREVENTION IN THE RED RIVER DELTA), WITH PROTESTANT AND 
CATHOLIC LEADERS IN THE CITY, AND WITH CPV YOUTH UNION AND 
OTHER SECTORAL GROUPS. 
 
--------------------------------- 
SENIOR PUBLIC FIGURES WHO RETIRED 
--------------------------------- 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  00985  04 OF 07  251104Z 
 
11. (C) FATHERLAND FRONT CHAIRMAN PHAM THE DUYET, 64, WHO 
WAS DROPPED FROM THE POLITBURO AFTER BEING RANKED FIFTH 
PREVIOUSLY, WAS FEATURED ON 33 DATES DURING THE TRACKING 
PERIOD.  DUYET BATTLED REPORTS OF MISMANAGEMENT AND 
CORRUPTION THROUGHOUT THE PAST THREE YEARS.  HE MAY 
MAINTAIN HIS ROLE AS HEAD OF THE VIETNAM FATHERLAND FRONT 
(VFF), THE UMBRELLA ORGANIZATION THAT OVERSEES THE 
CONSTITUENT SECTORAL GROUPS THAT THE CPV USES TO MANAGE AND 
CHANNEL NON-GOVERNMENTAL VIETNAMESE GROUPS.  HOWEVER, THE 
FACT HE WAS ALSO DROPPED FROM THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE 
SUGGESTS HE MAY NOT HOLD THAT POSITION FOR LONG.  DUYET'S 
PRIMARY PUBLIC ACTIVITIES WERE CONNECTED WITH GROUPS AND 
PROGRAMS OF THE VFF, SUCH AS THE FARMER'S UNION, MASS 
MOBILIZATION ACTIVITIES, THE OCTOBER 17 "DAY OF THE POOR," 
THE WOMEN'S UNION, THE YOUTH UNION, AND THE CPV MOUTHPIECE 
"NHAN DAN" (THE PEOPLE).  HE ALSO MET WITH THE HANOI 
CATHOLIC ARCHBISHOP AND LEADERS OF THE NORTHERN PROTESTANT 
CHURCHES JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS, AND BUDDHIST LEADERS AROUND 
IMPORTANT FESTIVAL DAYS.  KNOWN AS THE POLITBURO'S 
"TROUBLESHOOTER," DUYET JOURNEYED TO THAI BINH (SITE OF 
MASS PROTESTS THREE YEARS AGO THAT HE SERVED TO HELPED 
CONTROL) IN OCTOBER FOR A HISTORICAL ANNIVERSARY OF THE 
PROVINCE; THERE HE WAS INTERVIEWED AT LENGTH ON THE CPV'S 
MASS MOBILIZATION ACTIVITIES.  IN THE SPRING HE MADE A 
WIDELY PUBLICIZED VISIT TO THE HIGHLANDS PROVINCES OF GIA 
LAI AND DAKLAK, SITE OF FEBRUARY PROTESTS.  (DEPUTY PM 
DUNG'S VISIT SHORTLY AFTER THE PROTESTS BROKE OUT, BY 
CONTRAST, WAS NOT REPORTED IN THE STATE PRESS AT THE TIME.) 
DUYET ALSO ATTENDED DISTRICT AND PROVINCIAL PARTY 
CONGRESSES IN VINH PHU, HAI DUONG, QUANG NAM, HAIPHONG, BAC 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  00985  04 OF 07  251104Z 
NINH, AND THE PROVINCIAL PARTY CONGRESS IN DANANG IN 
FEBRUARY. 
 
12. (C) DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER NGUYEN MANH CAM, 71, WAS 
FEATURED IN THE MEDIA ON 62 OCCASIONS.  SINCE BEING 
REPLACED BY NGUYEN DY NIEN AS FOREIGN MINISTER A YEAR AGO, 
CAM WAS WIDELY SEEN AS BEING "KICKED UPSTAIRS" PRIOR TO HIS 
RETIREMENT AT THE CONGRESS.  DESPITE THIS, HE MAINTAINED AN 
ACTIVE SCHEDULE OF PUBLIC EVENTS AS HE REPRESENTED VIETNAM 
AT HOME AND ABROAD, AND ALSO AT LEAST NOMINALLY OVERSAW 
FOREIGN AND TRADE POLICY.  DURING THE PERIOD, CAM MET 
SCORES OF VISITING MINISTERS, INCLUDING THOSE FROM THE 
U.S., CHINA, ITALY, LAOS, CHILE AND JAPAN.  HE ATTENDED THE 
ASEM III SUMMIT (MEETING THE SOUTH KOREAN AND SPANISH PRIME 
MINISTERS, AMONG OTHERS) AND MET WITH VISITING FORMER 
GENERAL DIRECTOR OF GATT DUNKEL.  CAM'S MOST PROMINENT TRIP 
OF THE PERIOD WAS ATTENDING THE APEC SUMMIT IN BRUNEI 
NOVEMBER 14-18, WHERE HE MET WITH PRESIDENTS CLINTON, PUTIN 
AND JIANG ON THE MARGINS AND OTHER OFFICIALS, INCLUDING 
USTR AND U.S. CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
LIKELY FUTURE PLAYERS WITH LOW PUBLIC PROFILES 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
13. (C) CPV ORGANIZATIONAL AFFAIRS CHIEF NGUYEN VAN AN, 63, 
WHO WAS FEATURED IN THE NATIONAL MEDIA ON ONLY 12 DIFFERENT 
DATES, POSSESSES MUCH MORE CLOUT THAN HIS PUBLIC PROFILE 
WOULD SUGGEST.  LIKE IN DECEMBER 1997, WHEN HE NARROWLY 
LOST OUT TO PHIEU, AN WAS RUNNER-UP A SECOND TIME FOR THE 
TOP JOB.  ACCORDING TO SEVERAL SOURCES, INCLUDING ONE 
STAFF-LEVEL CONTACT AT THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, AN IS RUMORED 
TO BE SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED TO MOVE TO HEAD THE NATIONAL 
ASSEMBLY (TAKING MANH'S PLACE) BEGINNING IN MAY, WHICH 
WOULD GIVE HIM A MUCH HIGHER PROFILE.  (IN THE NEW 
POLITBURO, HOWEVER, HE WAS DROPPED TO TWELFTH, THE LOWEST 
RANK OF ANY CONTINUING MEMBER, WHICH SUGGESTS ANOTHER 
LEADER WITH PERHAPS MORE CLOUT, SUCH AS DUNG OR TRIET, MAY 
BE DESTINED FOR THE ASSEMBLY.)  THROUGHOUT THE TRACKING 
PERIOD, AN WAS RARELY FEATURED IN THE PRESS.  SOME OF HIS 
APPEARANCES WERE PURELY PROTOCOL-BASED, SUCH AS WHEN HE 
VISITED THE TOMB OF FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER LE DUC THO IN 
OCTOBER.  OTHERS WERE MORE SUBSTANTIVE: HE DIRECTED 
ORGANIZATIONAL MEETINGS ON LESSONS LEARNED FROM CPV 
CONGRESSES IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE CENTRAL REGION, 
AND HAS WAS FEATURED HOLDING CPV ORGANIZATIONAL MEETINGS AS 
WELL.  IF HE DOES MOVE TO THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, AN WOULD 
FOR THE FIRST TIME EMERGE FROM THE CPV SHADOWS. 
 
14. (C) CPV ECONOMIC COMMISSION HEAD TRUONG TAN SANG, 52, 
FEATURED IN THE MEDIA ON ONLY 8 DATES, LIKEWISE IS A 
POTENTIAL FUTURE PLAYER WHO NONETHELESS NOW MAINTAINS A 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  00985  05 OF 07  251104Z 
VERY LOW PUBLIC PROFILE.  FORMERLY HCMC PARTY CHIEF, SANG, 
LIKE DUNG AND TRIET, IS A YOUNG SOUTHERN REFORMER WHO MAY 
BE DESTINED FOR HIGHER THINGS.  NOT CURRENTLY AS POPULAR AS 
TRIET, SANG IS PRESENTLY IN A LOW-VISIBILITY JOB AS HEAD OF 
THE CPV'S LITTLE-KNOWN ECONOMIC COMMISSION.  THE FACT THAT 
THE CPV SEEMS TO HAVE TILTED MORE TOWARD REFORM AT THE 
NINTH CONGRESS MAY BE RELATED IN PART TO SANG'S WORK. 
(CONVERSELY, THE JAPANESE EMBASSY HEARD REPORTS PRIOR TO 
THE CONGRESS THAT SANG WAS IN DANGER OF BEING DROPPED FROM 
THE POLITBURO BECAUSE OF ALLEGATIONS OF CORRUPTION.  IN ANY 
EVENT, HE SURVIVED, THOUGH RELATIVE TO HIS PEERS HE DROPPED 
SLIGHTLY IN RANK, WITH NEWCOMER LE HONG ANH, AS WELL AS 
TRIET, DUNG, TRONG AND DIEN, ALL BYPASSING HIM IN THE 
RANKS.)  DURING THE TRACKING PERIOD, HE ATTENDED PARTY 
CONGRESSES IN BEN TRE AND OTHER PROVINCES, AND PRESIDED 
OVER THE JANUARY CPV CONGRESS OF THE CENTRAL ECONOMIC 
BRANCH. 
 
15. (C) DEFENSE MINISTER SR. LT. GENERAL PHAM VAN TRA, 65, 
NARROWLY HELD ON TO HIS POLITBURO SEAT, LIKELY IN LARGE 
PART BECAUSE THERE IS A SHORTAGE OF GOOD CANDIDATES TO 
REPLACE HIM AS DEFENSE MINISTER.  (HE WAS DEMOTED TO 
ELEVENTH OF 15, WHICH IS VERY LOW INDEED CONSIDERING THAT 
NORMALLY ELDER MEMBERS OF THE POLITBURO ARE RANKED HIGHER 
IN PROTOCOL RANKS.)  TRA IS THE ONLY MILITARY 
REPRESENTATIVE ON THE NEW 15-MEMBER POLITBURO, WHICH 
HISTORICALLY IS UNPRECEDENTED IN VIETNAM.  TRA HIMSELF IS 
WEAKENED POLITICALLY BECAUSE OF HIS RECENT CENSURE BY THE 
CENTRAL COMMITTEE FOR "MANAGEMENT FAILURES," IN PART FOR 
ALLOWING LY TONG TO VIOLATE VIETNAMESE AIRSPACE.  TRA MAY 
HAVE SURVIVED BECAUSE HE WAS NOT INVOLVED IN THE USE OF 
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MILITARY INTELLIGENCE ASSETS TO SPY ON MEMBERS OF THE 
CENTRAL COMMITTEE, WHICH REPORTEDLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE 
DEMISE OF PHIEU AND HIS PROTEGE NGAN.  (CONTRARILY, HE MAY 
HAVE SURVIVED AS A TRADEOFF TO MAINTAIN SOME MILITARY 
PRESENCE IN THE LEADERSHIP.)  DURING THE TRACKING PERIOD, 
TRA WAS DEPICTED IN THE NATIONAL MEDIA ON 25 OCCASIONS, 
LARGELY IN ATTENDING AND PRESIDING OVER MILITARY FUNCTIONS. 
HE CO-CHAIRED THE REVIEW MEETING OF THE MILITARY PARTY 
COMMITTEE IN FEBRUARY AND ATTENDED THE SOC TRONG PROVINCIAL 
CPV CONGRESS.  IN FEBRUARY HE MET WITH THE VISITING CHINESE 
DEFENSE MINISTER WITH GENERAL SECRETARY PHIEU. 
 
16. (C) MINISTER OF PUBLIC SECURITY LE MINH HUONG, 64, 
SURVIVED IN HIS SECRET POLICE POST AND WAS PROMOTED TO 
SIXTH IN THE NEW RANKS.  (THE AUSTRALIAN EMBASSY RECENTLY 
HEARD ANOTHER REPORT FROM MPS CONTACTS THAT HUONG IS IN 
POOR HEALTH, AND AN ANALYSIS OF THE NEW CENTRAL COMMITTEE 
RANKS SUGGESTS MPS HAS FEWER MEMBERS IN SENIOR CPV RANKS. 
HOWEVER, MPS REMAINS A POWERFUL FORCE IN VIETNAMESE 
POLITICAL LIFE.) HUONG WAS DEPICTED IN THE MEDIA ON 13 
OCCASIONS, ATTENDING PROVINCIAL CONGRESSES IN THUA THIEN- 
HUE AND QUANG TRI, AND ATTENDING THE FOUNDING THE YOUTH 
UNION.  OVERALL, THOUGH, HIS ALMOST INVISIBLE PUBLIC 
PROFILE DOES NOT MATCH HIS BEHIND-THE-SCENES INFLUENCE OR 
THAT OF HIS MINISTRY IN VIETNAMESE LIFE. 
 
17. (SBU) DANANG COMMUNIST PARTY CHIEF PHAN DIEN, 63, IS 
ALMOST INVISIBLE IN NATIONAL MEDIA, THOUGH THIS IS 
MISLEADING.  HE WAS FEATURED IN PROMINENT COVERAGE ONLY 
FIVE TIMES IN THE HANOI AND HO CHI MINH CITY MEDIA, THOUGH 
HE OF COURSE RECEIVED MORE REGULAR COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL 
REGION/DANANG PRESS.  WE DO NOT REGULARLY MONITOR THE 
REGIONAL PRESS FOR THIS PROJECT.  DIEN WAS DEPICTED IN 
NATIONAL MEDIA ATTENDING THE 25TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE 
FOUNDING OF DANANG UNIVERSITY AND CHAIRING MEETINGS OF 
PERSONNEL QUESTIONS FOR THE CENTRAL PROVINCES AND SOCIO- 
ECONOMIC PLANNING MEETINGS.  OBVIOUSLY, THE NATIONAL MEDIA 
GIVE ONLY A THUMBNAIL SKETCH OF DIEN'S ACTIVITIES; LIKE 
TRONG AND TRIET (WHO HEAD THE COUNTRY'S TWO LARGEST CITY 
PARTY ORGANIZATIONS), DIEN PRESIDED OVER DISTRICT AND 
PROVINCIAL CPV PREPARATIONS FOR THE PARTY CONGRESS. 
HOWEVER, THESE ACTIVITIES RECEIVED SCANT ATTENTION IN 
NATIONAL MEDIA.  HE WAS DEPICTED JOURNEYING TO QUANG NAM'S 
CPV CONGRESS IN MID-DECEMBER.  OVERALL, DESPITE HIS LOW 
NATIONAL PROFILE, DIEN APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD REPUTATION 
AMONG HIS COLLEAGUES.  FOLLOWING THE MASSIVE FLOODING OF 
TWO YEARS AGO IN THE CENTRAL REGION, THE CPV REPORTEDLY 
DISPATCHED DIEN TO PROVIDE A STEADY HAND TO HELP THE REGION 
RECOVER.  HE MAY RISE TO MORE PROMINENCE IN THE FUTURE. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
MEMBERS WITH LOW PUBLIC PROFILES WHO RETIRED 
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18. (C) PAVN POLITICAL DIRECTOR LT. GENERAL PHAM THANH 
NGAN'S DROP FROM THE POLITBURO IS THE MOST STRIKING, THOUGH 
HE ALWAYS HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED AS PHIEU'S PROTEGE.  AS NOTED 
ABOVE AND DOCUMENTED IN DATT REPORTING, NGAN'S FALL WITH 
PHIEU APPEARS TO OWE IN LARGE PART TO THE MISUSE OF 
MILITARY INTELLIGENCE AGAINST THEIR POLITBURO COLLEAGUES. 
UNTIL RECENTLY NGAN, 62, WAS SEEN AS POTENTIALLY A RISING 
STAR, WHO MIGHT FOLLOW PHIEU (AS A MILITARY POLITICAL 
COMMISSAR) TO HIGHER RANKS IN THE CPV.  DURING THE TRACKING 
PERIOD, HE WAS DEPICTED IN THE NATIONAL MEDIA 19 TIMES, 
MOSTLY IN MILITARY CEREMONIAL FUNCTIONS.  HE CO-CHAIRED THE 
REVIEW OF THE CPV MILITARY COMMITTEE IN FEBRUARY, ATTENDED 
CEREMONIES HONORING MEMBERS OF THE POLITICAL DEPARTMENT OF 
THE PEOPLE'S ARMY, AND VISITED MILITARY UNITS AND HOSPITALS 
DURING TET. 
 
19. (C) HO CHI MINH POLITICAL ACADEMY DIRECTOR NGUYEN DUC 
BINH, 73, WHO WAS FEATURED 20 TIMES IN NATIONAL MEDIA, HAS 
BEEN SLATED FOR RETIREMENT FOR SOME TIME.  THE OLDEST 
POLITBURO MEMBER, BINH SERVED FOR TEN YEARS IN THE HIGHEST 
BODY.  HE HELD SOME INFLUENCE AS A CPV ELDER AND A FORMER 
"TEACHER" FOR MOST OF HIS POLITBURO COLLEAGUES, SINCE MOST 
OF THEM HAD PASSED THROUGH THE ACADEMY AS PART OF THEIR CPV 
TRAINING.  ACCORDING TO SOME REPORTS, BINH WAS ONE OF THOSE 
WHO HELPED PUT A BRAKE ON THE BTA 18 MONTHS AGO.  DURING 
THIS PERIOD, HE HEADED UP AN IDEOLOGICAL CONFERENCE SHARING 
LESSONS OF SOCIALIST DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN VIETNAM AND CHINA 
IN NOVEMBER.  HE ATTENDED PARTY CONGRESSES IN HOA BINH, HA 
TAY, AND YEN BAI. 
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20. (C) NGUYEN THI XUAN MY, 60, HEAD OF THE CPV CENTRAL 
CONTROL DEPARTMENT, WAS DROPPED FROM SENIOR CPV RANKS 
DESPITE BEING THE ONLY WOMAN WHO HAS EVER SERVED IN THE 
POLITBURO.  UNTIL RECENTLY THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM WAS THAT 
THE CPV WOULD WANT TO KEEP HER -- OR PROMOTE ANOTHER WOMAN 
TO TAKE HER PLACE -- TO MAINTAIN A FACADE OF INCLUSIVENESS 
AT THE TOP OF THE CPV.  HOWEVER, SHE WAS SHARPLY CRITICIZED 
IN CPV RANKS FOR THE FAILURES OF THE CRITICISM/SELF- 
CRITICISM CAMPAIGN AND CORRUPTION PROBLEMS IN PARTY RANKS. 
SHE WAS FEATURED 16 TIMES IN THE NATIONAL MEDIA DURING THIS 
PERIOD.  SHE DEALT WITH THE CENTRAL UNITS OF THE CPV AND 
ATTENDED PARTY CONGRESSES IN VINH PHUC AND HUNG YEN 
PROVINCES.  (NOTE: LABOR MINISTER NGUYEN THI HANG, WHO 
MAINTAINED A CENTRAL COMMITTEE SEAT AT THE CONGRESS, IS 
WIDELY MENTIONED AS A POSSIBLE VICE PRESIDENT, WHICH WOULD 
PLACE HER AS THE COUNTRY'S HIGHEST-RANKING WOMAN.  THOUGH 
THE NEW 15-MEMBER POLITBURO HAS NO WOMEN, MS. TONG THI 
PHONG, PARTY CHIEF OF SON LA PROVINCE, WAS NAMED TO THE 
NINE-MEMBER POLITBURO SECRETARIAT.) 
 
21. (SBU) CPV IDEOLOGY CHIEF LE XUAN TUNG, 64, DEPICTED 24 
TIMES IN THE NATIONAL MEDIA, RETIRED AS LONG EXPECTED. 
TUNG IS IN POOR HEALTH, AND HE WAS LUCKY TO HANG ON TO HIS 
POLITBURO SEAT AFTER BEING BOOTED AS HANOI PARTY CHIEF 18 
MONTHS AGO.  DURING THE RATING PERIOD, TUNG SPOKE AT THE 
PARTY CONGRESSES OF AGENCIES UNDER CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 
CONTROL, AS WELL AS CPV CONGRESSES IN NAM DINH, THAI BINH, 
AND NINH BINH.  HE HAS MAINTAINED A LOW PROFILE SINCE 
ASSUMING HIS PRESENT ROLE. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
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22. (C) WITH THE CHANGING OF THE GUARD THIS PAST WEEKEND TO 
A YOUNGER LEADERSHIP, IT IS STRIKING TO OBSERVE HOW MANY OF 
THOSE WHO ADVANCED IN THE NEW POLITBURO -- ESPECIALLY MANH, 
TRIET AND DUNG -- ARE AMONG THOSE WHO HAVE HAD "PUBLIC" 
RESPONSIBILITIES THAT HAVE ENABLED THEM TO BUILD BROADER 
CONSTITUENCIES OF SUPPORT.  NOT SURPRISINGLY, THAT HAS 
HELPED THEM WHEN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS HAS GONE PAST 
THE POLITBURO TO THE BROADER CENTRAL COMMITTEE.  BUT ONE 
CANNOT IGNORE THE FACT THAT SOME OF THE CONTINUING MAJOR 
POWERS IN THIS SECRETIVE BODY -- HUONG AND AN FOR EXAMPLE - 
- BIDE THEIR TIME IN THE SHADOWS.  WE WILL BE INTERESTED TO 
OBSERVE WHETHER THE NEW POLITBURO WILL DIFFER FROM THE OLD 
IN ITS CONTRASTING PUBLIC AND PRIVATE FACES.  END COMMENT. 
PETERSON 
 
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