US embassy cable - 04CARACAS1444

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 001444 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION GREEN LIGHTS SIGNATURE 
APPEALS PROCESS 
 
REF: A. CARACAS 1346 
 
     B. CARACAS 1267 
     C. CARACAS 1247 
     D. CARACAS 1376 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Venezuela's Coordinadora Democratica (CD) decided 
April 27 to participate in the appeals process, scheduled for 
May 27-31, for the signatures collected to petition for a 
recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez.  CD leader 
Governor Enrique Mendoza told Poloff April 26 it is 
technically possible to win the appeals, adding that the 
decision to participate in the appeals process would be 
purely political.  Beginning April 23, the National Electoral 
Council (CNE) gave the opposition the data categorizing the 
signatures as valid, under observation, or rejected.  Similar 
data has also been given to the OAS Carter Center and the 
pro-Chavez Comando Ayacucho.  After its analysis of the data 
and the CNE-proposed procedures, the NGO Sumate concluded 
that the key to opposition success will rest with its ability 
to mobilize the millions of Venezuelans who want to recall 
President Chavez.  End summary. 
 
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Coordinadora Approves Reparos 
----------------------------- 
 
2. (C) The Coordinadora Democratica (CD) announced on April 
27 it will participate in the May 27-31 signature appeals 
process for the presidential recall referendum.  A CD 
spokesperson made the announcement late on April 27 after a 
seven-hour debate within the CD's political committee. 
Leonardo Carvajal, who chaired the political committee 
session, told poloff April 28 that about 10 of the 40 
committee members at the outset of the meeting were opposed 
to going.  The NGO Sumate, he said, gave an "excellent" 
presentation on the feasibility of the appeals process 
("reparos") that convinced some, he said.  Fence-sitters 
Primero Justicia and Alianza Bravo Pueblo resisted giving 
their support, but finally did so "under protest" for the 
sake of unity.  Carvajal said that most groups saw that the 
appeals process, despite its risks, is the only way to hold a 
recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez by August. 
 
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Proyecto Venezuela and Causa R Hold Out 
--------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Henrique Salas Romer of Proyecto Venezuela (PV) sent a 
representative to the CD meeting, as has been his practice. 
Salas did not immediately comment, though Carvajal confirmed 
that Salas was taking a "calculated" position not to support 
the CD's efforts.  Andres Velazquez of Causa R said his party 
would not participate either because the appeals process is 
designed to make the opposition lose.  Velazquez said the GOV 
had devised a trap that would permit the GOV to allege that 
the presidential referendum had died of "natural causes, when 
we're in the presence of a murder." 
 
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CD Reveals Game Plan 
-------------------- 
 
4. (C) CD head Enrique Mendoza launched the opposition's 
campaign for the appeals process on April 28.  Mendoza said 
the CD would begin immediately to form committees to locate 
persons who must appeal their signatures.  On May 8, Mendoza 
said the CD would re-activate 700 of the signature collection 
centers used during last year's signature drive to inform 
citizens of the status of their signatures.  (The NGO Sumate 
planned and will help organize the event.)  Mendoza said the 
CD would "swear-in" and train volunteers from May 10 to 17, 
 
 
then put the volunteer networks to work May 18-26 to contact 
every signer that needs to participate in the appeals 
process.  The volunteers will then mobilize the signers to 
get to the appeals centers May 27-31. 
 
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CNE Continues to Set the Rules 
------------------------------ 
 
5. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) began releasing 
the data on the results of the signature verification process 
for the presidential recall referendum April 23.  The 
database, which the CNE subsequently updated two more times, 
was provided to opposition representatives, the OAS Carter 
Center and the pro-Chavez Comando Ayacucho.  The database 
listed 1,910,965 valid signatures and 1,192,914 signatures 
eligible for the appeals process.  Some 900,000 of the 
signatures sent to the appeals process are associated with 
the so-called "planillas planas," signature forms filled out, 
in the same handwriting.  The CNE rejected 375,241 signatures 
outright, principally for errors in the daily tally sheets 
("actas"), unspecified errors in the fingerprints, and for 
contradictions with the electoral registry. 
 
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Technical Analysis of Results 
----------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Maria Corina Machado of Sumate told the Ambassador on 
April 27 that the NGO's assessment of the CNE data indicated 
that the CNE had manipulated it, in demonstrable statistical 
aberrations, to require more appeals in areas where the 
pro-Chavez forces have the advantage.  Machado said that 
under the best scenario, the opposition could go over the top 
with more than 2.6 million valid signatures.  In the worst 
case, they would only be able to match the number 2.46 
million threshold, but would have no cushion of signatures. 
It all depended on the politician ability to mobilize, she 
said.  Fifty-five percent of the appeals are concentrated in 
about 400 of 2700 appeals centers, Machado said.  Disruptions 
at these sites such as violence or inclement weather could 
cause serious setbacks, she warned.  Machado indicated that 
Sumate had advised the CD on the appeals campaign, which will 
include a combination of media ads, websites, cell phone 
messages, political party contacts, and neighborhood 
canvassing. 
 
7. (C) CD technocrats Amado Dounia and Alejandro Vivas also 
told poloff April 26 they believe the appeals process is 
winnable.  The principal challenge, they said, is the 
physical limitation of having only 2,700 appeals centers 
operating for three days.   This puts a cap, they estimate, 
of 800,000 people that can participate, not including those 
who wish to withdraw their signatures from the petition (see 
para 7).  Dounia said they would push the first day to reach 
370,000 appeals because the GOV will try to intimidate 
participants.  Dounia estimates each appeal will take up to 
three minutes to process. 
 
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Chavez Eggs On Opposition 
------------------------- 
 
8. (C) President Chavez challenged Venezuelans publicly on 
April 27 to go to the appeals and confirm their signatures. 
He said persons in the opposition are against the appeals 
because an "immense quantity of the signatures" were 
fabricated.  The pro-Chavez Comando Ayacucho threw its 
support behind the appeals process, though "under protest" 
because the CNE granted too many concessions to the 
opposition.  MVR Deputy Willian Lara told reporters on April 
25 Chavez supporters will be contacting those whose 
signatures were deemed valid by the CNE to convince them to 
retract their signatures during the appeals process.  Lara 
claimed they would eliminate up to 15 percent of the valid 
signatures (286,000 signatures) in this manner because those 
persons had been coerced into signing.  CD representatives 
estimate the Comando Ayacucho may strike up to 50,000 from 
 
 
the valid signatures via this method.  Sumate estimates 
between 100,000 and 150,000. 
 
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Comment 
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9. (C) The Coordinadora is back in its element:  mobilizing 
people.  Venezuelan political life will, for the next month 
at least, have the appeals to sustain it.  To get there, the 
opposition had to sacrifice its principled stand that the GOV 
defrauded their signature drive through unfair rule changes. 
Those holding out for another solution have mostly accepted 
that this fight will not be settled by judges or uprisings, 
but by getting people out in massive numbers to demonstrate 
the will for a presidential recall vote.  The GOV 
underestimated the opposition during the signature drive and 
was forced to react blatantly to damper the opposition 
efforts.  The GOV should be better prepared this round.  We 
therefore cannot overstate the need for international 
observers as a hedge against such tactics, and to underscore 
our message that the international community is scrutinizing 
the referendum process. 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA01444 - CONFIDENTIAL