US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV2421

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 002421 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI INTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: POLLING LULL AND ANTI-WITHDRAWAL DEMONSTRATION 
SPUR SPECULATION ON REFERENDUM RESULTS 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 2382 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norm Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b) and ( 
d). 
 
1.  (C)  The brief vacuum of polling results, with private 
and public polls of Likud voters not expected until April 29 
and 30 respectively, and the large-scale April 27 
anti-disengagement demonstration in Gaza, have increased 
speculation by media pundits and politicos about whether PM 
Sharon's disengagement plan will squeak by in the May 2 
referendum.  While back-to-back holidays of Israeli 
Remembrance Day and Independence Day April 26-27 provided 
ample public speaking opportunities for Sharon to boost the 
plan, they also provided the sentimental and nationalistic 
backdrop and possible motivating force for the 70,000-person 
anti-disengagement demonstration that took place in the Gaza 
settlement of Gush Katif.  While many of the demonstrators 
were families combining a withdrawal protest with their 
Independence Day holiday enjoyment, and most were reportedly 
not Likud voters, the optics of the event, replete with the 
appearances of Ministers Natan Sharansky and Effi Eitam, 
highlighted the level of settler support. 
 
2.  (C)  Four days before the referendum, media speculation, 
last week's narrowing polls, a vocal and motivated 
anti-disengagement campaign, and the absence of key 
ministerial support in the disengagement campaign, have some 
withdrawal supporters concerned.  D/PM Ehud Olmert told the 
Ambassador at an Independence Day event that he is worried 
about the referendum.  He said that the problem was two-fold: 
Withdrawal opponents are more likely than supporters to 
actually get out and vote, and Sharon got a very late start 
in launching his campaign, opting to wait until the end of 
Passover to mobilize.  Disengagement supporters reportedly 
will spend the coming days convincing Likud members to show 
up at the polls, and reports say Sharon himself will be 
calling numerous Likud Central Committee members to enlist 
their support. 
 
3.  (C)  Former Labor PM Ehud Barak, who was at the same 
event as Olmert, reportedly told Olmert that while he hopes 
the referendum passes, he wonders why Sharon has bitten off 
"only one-tenth of the loaf."  Barak noted that Sharon's plan 
does not go as far as Olmert's own withdrawal proposal.  If 
the GOI must give up land to protect Israel, he asked, why 
not be honest with the citizenry and acknowledge that the 
country cannot hold on to all of the territory it now holds. 
(Note: Labor leader Shimon Peres reportedly offered Sharon 
the following advice: Take the disengagement plan to the 
Cabinet and the Knesset even if the plan is defeated in the 
referendum.) 
 
4.  (C)  Comment: This week's much-awaited polls will either 
bring a sigh of relief or heightened concern to PM Sharon and 
his supporters.  If the poll numbers continue to turn against 
him, Sharon will likely tie the referendum more firmly to a 
vote of confidence in his leadership, and more strongly 
stress both the need for his plan and the consequences of 
rejecting U.S. support.  The opposition campaign will 
continue to deploy thousands of activists to rally Likud 
voters against the plan and continue to warn of what they say 
is the potential for polling fraud by disengagement 
supporters. 
 
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