US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS1868

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001868 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, PBTS, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: DINING WITH CHRIS: RANDOM THOUGHTS FROM RELEX 
COMMISSIONER PATTEN 
 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Kyle Scott.  Reason: 1.4 (B 
)(D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Over rubbery fish at an Adenauer Stiftung 
affair on April 27, External Relations Commissioner Chris 
Patten touched briefly on why the EU will never be a "real 
power," the dubious backgrounds of some of the leaders of the 
EU's new members, next steps on Cyprus/Turkey, the 
differences between a union and an alliance, and Russian 
President Putin's "killer's eyes."   His formal remarks 
focused on the future of the European Commission, where he 
offered ten recommendations to the next commission.  End 
Summary. 
 
On What It Means to Be a "Real Power" 
------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) To be a real power, Patten said, a country must be 
ready and able to adopt and implement a policy, even if the 
rest of the world considers it unwise.  Europeans may agree 
or disagree with US policy, but they admire that the US is 
ready to carry out the policies it thinks best, no matter 
what the rest of the world thinks.  Under this yardstick, the 
EU will never be a "real power" because there is always 
someone in the room who is overly cautious, and will insist 
on looking at matters "sensibly." 
 
Next Steps On Cyprus/Papadopolous' Dubious Character... 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
3. (C) The next steps for the Commission are figuring out how 
to spend money in Northern Cyprus.  Patten expects the EC to 
open an office to oversee their assistance.  While there will 
be legal hurdles to managing the process, he was confident 
the Commission would find a way.  Patten doubted the Greek 
Cypriots would openly oppose any efforts, noting that they 
were "on their heels" diplomatically after their blatant 
efforts to stifle opposing views on the referendum.  This 
incident, Patten said, was a sad reflection on the realities 
of EU enlargement: Some of the new members were people you 
would "only want to dine with if you have a very long spoon." 
 Not that the EU should have been surprised by Papadopolous' 
behavior, Patten said, since they knew well who they were 
dealing with: Milosevic's Cyprus lawyer, who was also 
responsible for laundering billions of ill-gotten Russian 
money through Cypriot banks.  Patten, who had listened 
patiently to a lengthy policy explanation of the Russian veto 
in the UNSC from Foreign Minister Lavrov at EU-Russian 
consultations the day before, said he suspected the money 
connection is the real reason for the Russian vote: 
"Papadopolous just called in his chits." 
 
... And on Turkey 
----------------- 
 
4. (C) Patten noted that he was the biggest proponent in the 
Commission for Turkey's admission.  In his view, based on the 
technical merits alone, the Commission has no other option 
but to give a positive avis to begin accession negotiations. 
Still, he said the political climate in Europe is not 
receptive to Turkey's candidacy.  The problem, in his view, 
was not Chirac in France, since "he can change his policies 
on a whim."  Patten considered the opposition of conservative 
parties in Germany and Spain the most serious obstacles to 
Turkish admission. 
 
On the Difference Between a Union and an Alliance 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
5. (C) Patten also said he felt at times the US does not 
fully appreciate the difference between expanding an alliance 
like NATO, and a Union like the EU.  When a country joins an 
alliance, it becomes a distinct member of a group committed 
to a common cause -- but nothing more.  When countries join 
the EU, they become part of the whole, formally and 
practically indistinct in many areas of EU competence.  "We 
have to be ready to trust their food and sanitation 
standards, for instance."  In this regard, he noted that some 
of the accession countries were foisted on the EU as part of 
a larger bargain.  Cyprus, for instance, probably should not 
have been admitted (as Papadapolous' behavior prior to the 
referendum indicated), but the Greeks insisted on Cypriot 
admission as the price of agreeing to some of the northern 
European candidates.  Croatia, Patten said, is probably far 
more prepared for EU membership than either Bulgaria or 
Romania, who will likely enter the Union earlier.  Romania, 
in particular, was a "feral nation."  We noted that we were 
shocked by del Ponte's clean bill of health on ICTY 
cooperation while Gotovina still was at large inside Croatia. 
 Patten said he too was surprised by del Ponte's letter, but 
once the referee had made the call, the EU was bound by her 
judgement. 
 
On Russia, WTO, Kyoto, and Putin's "Killer's Eyes" 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
6. (C) Patten was in Moscow last week, and had just concluded 
EU-Russia ministerial consultations in Brussels this week. 
He said the EU had become overly dependent on Russian energy 
supplies, and should become more engaged with the countries 
of the Caucasus and Central Asia in order to diversify 
supplies.  To do so, however, the Union would also have to 
become more involved in pipeline politics. 
 
7. (C) WTO discussions had not moved forward substantially 
during these most recent talks.  Patten said the EC was 
sticking with its positions on energy, but he was worried 
that they may have taken too strong a line, and would be 
forced to backpedal significantly at a later stage.  In his 
view, this was unfortunate because he was worried the EC was 
spending too much negotiating effort on energy rather than 
focussing on other items that really mattered, such as 
overflights.  Patten also said that Putin had explicitly 
suggested a possible trade-off between the Russian position 
on the Kyoto Protocol and WTO negotiations during last week's 
talks, although he was not sure how serious the Russians were 
on this, or whether it was a convincing trade-off for 
Commission officials. 
 
8. (C) Patten said Putin has done a good job for Russia 
mainly due to high world energy prices, but he had serious 
doubts about the man's character.  Cautioning that "I'm not 
saying that genes are determinant," Patten then reviewed 
Putin family history: grandfather part of Lenin's special 
protection team, father a communist party apparatchik, and 
Putin himself decided at a young age to pursue a career in 
the KGB.  "He seems a completely reasonable man when 
discussing the Middle East or energy policy, but when the 
conversation shifts to Chechnya or Islamic extremism, Putin's 
eyes turn to those of a killer." 
 
Ten Commandments for the Next Commission 
---------------------------------------- 
 
9. (SBU) Patten's public remarks at the dinner focused on the 
future of the Commission -- not foreign affairs.  He offered 
ten recommendations for the next Commission to help them 
improve the EU's image with Europe's citizenry, as follows: 
 
-- 1) Deliver substance: highlight areas where the EU can 
make a difference in the world, such as the rapid changes in 
Justice and Home Affairs, or external assistance. 
 
-- 2) Go with the flow of the institutional debate: Don't 
spend energy trying to stop intergovernmental efforts that 
have a head of steam behind them.  Instead, try to channel 
these efforts in useful directions. 
 
-- 3) Exploit the "Community Method" where it exists:  Make 
the most of EC strengths, such as on the internal market, 
trade, or foreign assistance. 
 
-- 4) Be open to new ways of working: The number of 
regulations passed should not be a measure of success of the 
Commission. 
 
-- 5) Regulate better: aggesively develop the initiative the 
Commission launched in 2002.  Get serious about consultation 
and impact assessment rather than just going through the 
motions. 
 
--6) Get economic management right: There should be no "free 
riders" in the monetary union, but the EU should seek greater 
flexibility that takes account of the differences between 
states.  The Commission must also be ready to accept the same 
sort of management discipline it demands of the Member States. 
 
-- 7) Put more effort into monitoring implementation of EU 
legislation: use score cards and "league tables" on 
infractions. Compare best practices.  Be ready to be tougher 
on sanctioning persistent bad performance, perhaps by cutting 
EU financial programs such as structural funds. 
 
-- 8) Be prepared to scale back or eliminate bad policies: 
Take a thorough look at the CAP, and focus greater attention 
on what needs to be done at the Community level, and where 
"subsidiarity" and national/local administrations would be 
the better option. 
 
-- 9) Get internal organization right: Create real clusters 
of issues where Commission Vice Presidents have real 
authority. 
 
-- 10) Demonstrate that the EU can make a difference to 
people's lives. 
 
SCHNABEL