US embassy cable - 04PANAMA975

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PANAMA 000975 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
DEPT. FOR WHA/CEN/BRIGHAM 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, PM, POLITICS & FOREIGN POLICY 
SUBJECT: PANAMA ELECTION EVE OUTLOOK: LIKELY WINNER 
TORRIJOS FACES A PROBABLE SPLIT LEGISLATURE 
 
 
REF: A. PANAMA 0936 
     B. PANAMA 0924 
     C. PANAMA 0875 
     D. PANAMA 0802 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Linda E. Watt for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) 
 
 
Summary: Torrijos On Top 
------------------------- 
1. (C) Martin Torrijos and his Democratic Revolutionary Party 
(PRD), well ahead by most indicators, are poised to win the 
presidency and a plurality of legislative seats in Panama's 
Sunday, May 2, 2004 general elections.  The American-educated 
Torrijos has marginalized the PRD's "old guard" and has shown 
that he intends to work closely with U.S. officials, 
especially on bilateral security and law enforcement issues 
of mutual concern.  Backed by a base coalition of nearly 
one-quarter of Panama's two million registered voters, 
Torrijos has a solid margin over his nearest competitor, 
Panama's 1989-94 President Guillermo Endara.  Endara, running 
on the Solidarity Party ticket, and Arnulfista candidate Jose 
Miguel Aleman, continue to compete for the anti-PRD vote. 
Torrijos is a little known quantity in governing style; how 
he will reduce corruption, for instance, is far from clear. 
Embassy expects a free and fair election and will dispatch 28 
volunteer observers throughout the country to watch it 
develop.  End Summary. 
 
 
The Numbers Game: Final Installment 
----------------------------------- 
2.  (SBU) Recent public opinion polls show Torrijos with a 
substantial lead, followed by Endara and Aleman.  They 
probably correctly rank the candidates but do not reveal the 
true margins between them.  An April 20 La Prensa poll and an 
April 22 El Panama America poll both show Martin Torrijos 
well ahead of second-place candidate Guillermo Endara with 
third and fourth-place candidates Jose Miguel Aleman 
(Arnulfista Party) and Ricardo Martinelli (Democratic Change 
Party) well behind: 
 
 
Candidate      La Prensa (4/20)    El Panama America (4/22) 
---------      ----------------    ------------------------ 
Torrijos             47%                     45% 
Endara               28%                     27% 
Aleman               19%                     10% 
Martinelli            6%                      6% 
undecided             0%*                    12% 
 
 
*La Prensa's poll was based on simulated voting by "probable 
voters" who all cast "virtual ballots.  Therefore, no one was 
"undecided" in the results. 
 
 
Legislative Head Count 
---------------------- 
3.  (SBU) All seven of Panama's officially recognized 
political parties will likely claim at least one of 
seventy-eight total seats in Panama's unicameral Legislative 
Assembly when it reopens on September 1, 2004.  The PRD on 
its own probably will not win an absolute majority of 40 
seats.  The PRD-PP electoral alliance could have a shot at 
controlling the legislature, but the alliance may not survive 
election day.  Also, several likely PRD winners for 
legislative seats are not loyal to Torrijos or other party 
leaders.  With several races too close to call, Emboffs have 
identified the following probable outcomes: 
 
 
PARTY                                      # Legislators 
-----                                      ------------- 
Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD)           33-38 
Arnulfista Party (PA)                          17-23 
Solidarity Party (PS)                           6-9 
Natl. Liberal Republican Movement (MOLIRENA)    3-5 
Popular Party (PP)                              3-4 
National Liberal Party (PLN)                    3-4 
Democratic Change Party (CD)                    1-2 
 
 
Comment: Wild Card? 
------------------- 
4.  (C) The wild card in this election is the actual extent 
of support for ex-president Endara, who some observers think 
could attract far more votes from undecided voters and 
Panama's 100,000 government workers than opinion polls 
suggest.  Some interlocutors, including Endara's foreign 
policy specialist and former Foreign Minister Jose Raul 
Mulino, have suggested that if Endara were to win the 
presidency, he would create a new party, attracting numerous 
Arnulfistas.  Emboffs expect the substantial Solidarity 
contingent noted above to ride into the Assembly on Endara's 
coattails, but quickly split rather than forming a unified 
front.  Most Solidarity legislative candidates were either 
originally members of other parties or are newcomers to the 
political scene. 
 
 
Divided Conquerors 
------------------ 
5.  (C) A internal PRD struggle for positions and influence 
in a new government may quickly become Torrijos' first major 
challenge.  Torrijos campaign finance manager Ubaldino Real 
told POL Counselor April 1 that the Torrijos campaign team 
has postponed showing its intentions on job assignments in a 
Torrijos government.  Real confided that the choices, once 
announced, would surprise and anger Perez Balladares 
supporters and others of the old guard.  Although the 
Torrijos inner circle is comfortable shutting out the old 
guard after election day, Real denied that Torrijos would owe 
political "debts" to them.  Real, a management consultant, 
explained that the campaign team had defined profiles for key 
cabinet positions and had identified at least three people 
who fit the profile for each one.  He said that Torrijos 
probably has names in mind for cabinet appointees, but added 
that Torrijos has not shared them with anyone. 
 
 
The young lions 
--------------- 
6.  (C) The emergence of young leaders like Torrijos and 
Panama Mayor Juan Carlos Navarro, likely to be re-elected in 
a landslide, has not purged the PRD of followers of former 
President Ernesto Perez Balladares (1994-99) but it has 
rejuvenated party membership and offers much better examples 
to follow.  Like their closest friends and advisors, Torrijos 
and Navarro are US-educated modernists, well-versed in doing 
business with Americans.  If "change comes from the top" in 
Panama's top-down political structure, their leadership from 
positions of authority could greatly improve US-Panama 
relations in the long run by improving governance in Panama. 
But much will depend on how truly committed they are to 
change, and how well they can keep the old Guard at bay in 
the post-election scramble for plum positions in the next 
government. 
 
 
WATT