US embassy cable - 04RANGOON537

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000537 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; USPACOM FOR FPA 
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, BM, Ethnics, National Convention 
SUBJECT: KNU OBSERVERS TO ATTEND NATIONAL CONVENTION 
 
REF: A. CHAING MAI 115 
 
     B. RANGOON 405 
     C. DAO RANGOON 271015Z APR 04 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen M. Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  According to a well-placed, Rangoon-based 
ethnic Karen leader, the Karen National Union (KNU) will send 
a two-person observer delegation to the National Convention 
(NC) in May.  The postponed SPDC-KNU talks originally 
scheduled for late April could take place in late May, 
despite the resumption of the NC on May 17.  Local Karen 
sources say 12 ethnic Karens, including three Rangoon-based 
Karen civic leaders and five Democratic Karen Burmese Army 
(DKBA) members, will attend the NC as full delegates.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) According to a senior Rangoon-based Karen Development 
Community (KDC) leader involved in setting up the January 
SPDC-KNU cease-fire talks, even though the talks planned for 
late April have been postponed (ref A), the KNU is planning 
to send a two member "observer" delegation to the National 
Convention.  The contact further reported that the observer 
group will supposedly consist of KNU General Secretary Pad 
Mahn Sha, and Joint General Secretary Pado David Htaw, and 
will not participate in any formal NC discussions or debates. 
 The KDC leader was optimistic that SPDC-KNU talks will 
resume in mid-May and will conclude with a lasting 
settlement. 
 
3.  (C) Our KDC contact also informed us that the SPDC has 
invited him and two other Karen civic leaders from Rangoon, 
and one previously unknown Karen schoolteacher from Myawaddy 
(COMMENT: Most likely a trustworthy, pro-regime USDA member), 
to attend the NC as "Specially Invited Guest" delegates.  In 
addition, the SPDC has invited five DKBA delegates to attend. 
 Another senior Rangoon-based KDC leader, who was present at 
the January SPDC-KNU cease-fire talks and has strong ties 
with the GOB, affirmed that over 10 ethnic Karens will be 
attending the NC. 
 
4.  (C) The KDC leader with strong GOB ties commented to us 
that the one-month postponement of SPDC-KNU talks is a good 
thing, as it will give the KNU commanders more time to 
prepare for the discussion on demarcation and troop 
placement.  He believes that the SPDC will agree to give the 
KNU seven areas of control, corresponding to the present 
mountainous locations of the seven KNU brigades in eastern 
Karen State.  Apparently, the SPDC will also allow a KNU 
office to be set up in Pa-an (Hpa-an), the capital of Karen 
State. 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT: If the KNU has agreed to send observers to 
the Convention, the KNU then will at least be able to confer 
with the friendly Burma-based ethnic Karen delegates during 
the NC and discuss issues pertaining to pan-Karen political 
and cultural aspirations.  The KNU observers could also 
confer with several other ethnic delegations concerning 
constitutional issues important to them all.  However, in 
agreeing now to send observers, the KNU may have given up 
scant remaining leverage they could have used in the next 
round of talks with the SPDC.  END COMMENT. 
Martinez