US embassy cable - 01HANOI905

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 000905 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR S/S-O, EAP, EAP/BCLTV, DRL, INR 
NSC FOR EAST ASIAN DIRECTORATE 
SECDEF FOR ISA/EAP STERN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/13/2016 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, VM, DPOL 
SUBJECT: CENTRAL COMMITTEE PRESSURES GENERAL SECRETARY TO STEP DOWN; ASSEMBLY SPEAKER MANH APPARENT SUCCESSOR 
 
REF: HANOI 638 
 
1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER DAVID YOUNG; 
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
2. (C) SUMMARY: ONLY DAYS BEFORE THE NINTH COMMUNIST PARTY 
CONGRESS BEGINS APRIL 19, THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE HAS DEALT 
GENERAL SECRETARY PHIEU A SEVERE BLOW BY REFUSING TO 
RECOMMEND HIM FOR ANOTHER TERM.  A PREFERENCE BALLOT AMONG 
THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE GAVE TOP MARKS TO NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
SPEAKER NONG DUC MANH, AND SEVERAL SOURCES REPORT HE WAS 
CONFIRMED AT A PRE-CONGRESS MEETING APRIL 16 TO BE THE NEXT 
GENERAL SECRETARY.  HO CHI MINH CITY PARTY CHIEF TRIET, WHO 
ALSO RECEIVED SOME SUPPORT FOR THE TOP POST, REPORTEDLY 
WILL SUCCEED KHAI AS PRIME MINISTER, BEING "ELECTED" BY THE 
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY IN MAY.  PRESIDENT LUONG REPORTEDLY WILL 
REMAIN IN PLACE.  ONE CONFLICTING PRESS REPORT HAS CPV 
ORGANIZATIONAL CHIEF AN PEGGED AS GENERAL SECRETARY; WE 
PREDICT HE WILL REMAIN IN THE POLITBURO AND COULD LAND 
ANOTHER SENIOR POSITION. 
 
3. (C) SUMMARY (CONT'D): NONE OF THIS IS FINAL UNTIL 
CONFIRMED BY THE PARTY CONGRESS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO 
ANNOUNCE THE DECISIONS BY THIS WEEKEND.  MANH, WHO IS A 
MODERATE IN THE LEADERSHIP AND HAS HELPED PROFESSIONALIZE 
THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AND GRADUALLY EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE, 
AND THE DYNAMIC SOUTHERN REFORMER TRIET IN TIME MAY ADD A 
NEW DYNAMISM TO THE FACTIONALIZED LEADERSHIP.  OTHER 
REFORMERS APPARENTLY BOUND FOR THE POLITBURO INCLUDE TRADE 
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MINISTER VU KHOAN AND DEPUTY PM KHIEM.  IN THE SHORT TERM, 
HOWEVER, THE LEADERSHIP LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A 
FUNDAMENTALLY CAUTIOUS GROUP.  OVER TIME, THOUGH, GREATER 
PROMINENCE FOR MORE DYNAMIC REFORMERS WILL HELP BOOST THE 
PACE OF AND THE LEADERSHIP'S COMMITMENT TO THE ECONOMIC 
REFORM PROGRAM.  END SUMMARY. 
 
CENTRAL COMMITTEE TELLS PHIEU HE NEEDS TO GO 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) SEVERAL SOURCES REPORT THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE WEIGHED 
IN STRONGLY AGAINST GENERAL SECRETARY LE KHA PHIEU AT THE 
RECENTLY COMPLETED 12TH PLENUM.  DURING THE PLENUM, PHIEU 
SOUGHT TO RETAIN HIS SUPREME POSITION, BUT RECEIVED ONLY 
40-45 PERCENT OF THE VOTES OF THE ROUGHLY 165 CENTRAL 
COMMITTEE MEMBERS.  ON A SUBSEQUENT BALLOT, WHICH WAS A 
"PREFERENCE" VOTE FOR THE TOP JOB, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
SPEAKER NONG DUC MANH REPORTEDLY RECEIVED ABOUT 40 PERCENT 
OF THE VOTES, HO CHI MINH CITY CPV CHIEF NGUYEN MINH TRIET 
RECEIVED 30 PERCENT, AND THE REMAINDER WAS SPLIT BETWEEN 
HANOI PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN PHU TRONG AND PRESIDENT TRAN DUC 
LUONG, ACCORDING TO A VIETNAMESE-AMERICAN BUSINESSMAN WHO 
SPOKE WITH TWO CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBERS.  THOUGH THE 
CENTRAL COMMITTEE SESSION, WHICH ENDED APRIL 10, APPARENTLY 
DID NOT FORMALLY CHOOSE PHIEU'S SUCCESSOR, CLEARLY THE 
GROUP SEEMED TO HAVE STRONGLY SIGNALED TO PHIEU HIS TIME 
WAS UP.  OFFICIAL VIETNAMESE MEDIA HAVE REPORTED THAT THE 
CENTRAL COMMITTEE FINALIZED A PROPOSED LIST OF CANDIDATES 
FOR A NEW CENTRAL COMMITTEE, THOUGH THEY DID NOT COMMENT ON 
THE GENERAL SECRETARY POST, NOR NAME ANY OF THESE PERSONS. 
SEPARATELY, A SOURCE TOLD US PHIEU WAS NOT INCLUDED ON THE 
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NEW CENTRAL COMMITTEE LIST, WHICH IF TRUE WOULD SEAL HIS 
FATE. 
 
5. (C) DURING THE PAST WEEK, HANOI HAS BEEN RIFE WITH 
RUMORS ABOUT WHETHER MANH WOULD INDEED TAKE THE POST.  ONE 
OF HIS KEY LIEUTENANTS ON THE ASSEMBLY STAFF SAID MANH 
MIGHT NOT WANT TO CHALLENGE FOR THE SPOT AT THIS TIME, 
SINCE HE IS BY NATURE NOT COMBATIVE.  OTHERS ECHOED THIS: 
ONE SOURCE SAID MANH HAD TURNED DOWN THE OFFER, AND ANOTHER 
SPECULATED MANH WOULD BIDE HIS TIME, WHICH COULD OPEN THE 
WAY FOR ONE OF THE OTHER MENTIONED CANDIDATES, SUCH AS CPV 
ORGANIZATIONAL CHIEF NGUYEN VAN AN (WHO WAS A FINALIST TO 
PHIEU FOR THE POST IN DECEMBER 1997) OR TRONG. 
 
6. (C) HOWEVER, ON APRIL 17 WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS 
FROM THE APPARENTLY JUST-COMPLETED "PRE-CONGRESS" MEETING 
OF THE CPV LEADERSHIP.  (BA DINH SQUARE WAS FREE OF 
OFFICIAL CARS AND OPEN TO BOTH VEHICULAR AND PEDESTRIAN 
TRAFFIC THIS MORNING, FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE PLENUM 
BEGAN AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE PRE-CONGRESS.  WE THUS 
DEDUCE THE PRE-CONGRESS CONCLUDED YESTERDAY.)  ONE 
DISCERNING SOURCE ON LEADERSHIP ISSUES REPORTS THAT THE NEW 
LEADERSHIP LINE-UP HAS BEEN SET AND BLESSED AT THE PRE- 
CONGRESS.  ACCORDING TO THIS SOURCE, MANH WILL BECOME CPV 
GENERAL SECRETARY "EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY"; APPARENTLY PHIEU 
"HAS ALREADY MOVED OUT OF HIS OFFICE."  LUONG WILL REMAIN 
AS PRESIDENT, AND KHAI WILL STAY IN PLACE AS PRIME MINISTER 
UNTIL MAY 2001 (WHICH WOULD BE WHEN THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
WOULD NEXT MEET TO APPROVE CHANGES IN GOVERNMENT 
POSITIONS).  AT THAT TIME, TRIET WOULD BECOME THE NEW PM 
(WITH HIM BECOMING THE NEW FIRST DEPUTY PM IN THE INTERIM). 
THIS SOURCE DID NOT KNOW WHAT WOULD HAPPEN TO CURRENT FIRST 
DEPUTY PM NGUYEN TAN DUNG, WHO LONG HAS BEEN SEEN AS LIKELY 
TO MOVE UP TO THE PRIME MINISTERSHIP.  THIS SOURCE ALSO 
SAYS FM NIEN WOULD REMAIN IN PLACE, AND VU KHOAN WOULD 
ASSUME DEPUTY PM CAM'S PORTFOLIO WITH OVERSIGHT OVER BOTH 
FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE. 
 
COMMENT: POTENTIALLY A MORE REFORM-MINDED LEADERSHIP 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
7. (C) COMMENT: THESE REPORTED CHANGES SEEM PLAUSIBLE AND 
WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH "THE REALM OF THE POSSIBLE" WE 
HAVE BEEN MONITORING OVER THE PAST MONTHS.  AT THE SAME 
TIME, THERE CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE WIDELY VARYING REPORTS. 
THOUGH OUR INFORMATION IS ADMITTEDLY INCOMPLETE, THIS 
APPEARS TO BE A SOMEWHAT UNIQUE POLITICAL MOMENT IN 
VIETNAM, IN THAT THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE APPEARS TO HAVE 
RULED CONTRARY TO THE POLITBURO, WITH THE FINAL DECISION 
HAVING BEEN FORWARDED TO THE PRE-CONGRESS MEETING ONLY DAYS 
BEFORE THE CONGRESS ITSELF. 
 
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8. (C) COMMENT (CONT'D): IF CONFIRMED, SUCH A NEW LINEUP 
WOULD BE COLLECTIVELY MORE REFORM-MINDED THAN THE CURRENT 
VERSION.  MANH, A MODERATE IN THE LEADERSHIP WHO HAS 
PRESSED FOR THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY TO BECOME MORE 
PROFESSIONAL AND TO ASSUME A MORE IMPORTANT ROLE IN 
LAWMAKING, WOULD BE A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT OVER THE HIGHLY 
IDEOLOGICALLY PHIEU.  MANH, WHILE TO ALL APPEARANCES A VERY 
COMMITTED COMMUNIST, SEEMS TO BE A QUIET COALITION BUILDER, 
AND HE HAS BEEN GRAPPLING WITH MUCH MORE PRACTICAL 
QUESTIONS FOR THE COUNTRY'S FUTURE AS ASSEMBLY CHAIR THAN 
HAS PHIEU.  THAT SAID, MANH'S COMMENTS TO VISITING SENATOR 
KERRY DURING THE RECENT POTUS TRIP ARE A REMINDER WE SHOULD 
NOT EXPECT MOVEMENT ON POLITICAL REFORM: MANH WAS ADAMANT 
IN DEFENDING VIETNAM'S POLITICAL SYSTEM AS FULLY 
"DEMOCRATIC," SAYING VIETNAM DOES NOT CONTEMPLATE MULTIPLE 
PARTIES IN THE FUTURE. 
 
9. (C) COMMENT (CONT'D): PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANT OVER TIME, 
THOUGH, WOULD BE THAT SUCH A NEW LINE-UP, IF CONFIRMED, 
WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT ADVANCE IN THE BROADER PROCESS OF 
GENERATIONAL CHANGE TO A YOUNGER, MORE TECHNOCRATIC, "POST- 
WAR" LEADERSHIP.  MANH, 60, IS NEARLY A FULL DECADE YOUNGER 
THAN PHIEU.  TRIET, 58, GETS HIGH MARKS IN HCMC FOR HIS 
WORK AT THE FOREFRONT OF ECONOMIC REFORM.  COUPLED WITH 
MORE DYNAMIC REFORMERS LIKE VU KHOAN, ONE OF THE KEY 
ARCHITECTS OF OUR BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT, AND DEPUTY PM 
KHIEM, THIS "COLLECTIVE LEADERSHIP" COULD BECOME RE- 
ENERGIZED AND MORE WILLING TO EMBRACE A MORE POSITIVE 
VISION OF THE OPPORTUNITIES OF GLOBALIZATION -- RATHER THAN 
ONLY HARPING ON ITS PERILS.  THAT SAID, WE MUST CAUTION 
THAT IDEOLOGUES SUCH AS TRONG, HARD-LINE CPV CADRE, AND THE 
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POWERFUL MINISTRIES OF DEFENSE AND PUBLIC SECURITY WILL 
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS CHECKS ON ANY "JEFFERSONIAN" VISIONS 
THAT MIGHT DANCE THROUGH ANY CENTRAL COMMITTEE HEADS.  END 
COMMENT. 
PETERSON 
 
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