US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN975

UNCLAS YEREVAN 000975 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, AM 
SUBJECT:  OPPOSITION OPENS A SMALL WINDOW FOR 
DIALOGUE, APRIL 27 DEMONSTRATIONS KEY 
 
REFS: A) Yerevan 880  B) Yerevan 947 
 
1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please treat 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2. (SBU) Against the backdrop of the opposition call 
for "the last stand" on April 27, National Assembly 
Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan has called a meeting with 
the opposition to discuss the current political 
situation.  The opposition rally and likely march 
April 27, and the government's response to it, will 
likely determine the nature of the political 
dialogue (or lack thereof) for the near term.  End 
Summary. 
 
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BAGHDASARYAN TRYING TO MEDIATE 
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3. (SBU) (SBU) In his April 23 press conference 
National Assembly Speaker Artur Baghdasaryan (and 
senior member of the governing coalition) offered to 
meet with opposition leaders April 26 and also 
condemned the authorities' heavy-handed tactics 
against the opposition.  Baghdasaryan used a power- 
point presentation to describe the chain of events 
since the 2003 elections that he believed had led to 
current political impasse.  He criticized the 
government for overreacting to the current political 
situation, saying, "The guillotine is not the best 
means of treating dandruff."  The Speaker noted that 
the escalating confrontation could have serious 
consequences, namely Armenia's expulsion from the 
Council of Europe. 
 
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OPPOSITION AGREES TO ATTEND MEETING 
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4. (SBU) Opposition leaders told us that they would 
send two representatives to meet with National 
Assembly (NA) Speaker Baghdasaryan in the evening of 
April 26.  Baghdasaryan and senior coalition members 
of the NA told the Ambassador April 24 that they 
were trying to broker a discussion in order to move 
the political process back into the "political 
sphere" rather than let the situation devolve into a 
police matter. 
 
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APRIL 27 DEMONSTRATIONS WILL BE KEY 
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5. (SBU) Opposition leaders tell us that they have 
not yet decided exactly what they will do tomorrow 
(April 27) when they gather to demonstrate, but 
every indication we have leads us to believe that 
they intend to march on the Presidential Palace. 
They have announced plans in the press to encircle 
the Presidential Palace and maintain their positions 
so that the President will not have access when he 
returns from a European trip later this week.  As 
the Foreign Minister announced to the diplomatic 
corps (septel), the GOAM has clearly laid down a 
line for the opposition -- government and opposition 
behavior over the course of the next 24 to 48 hours 
will be crucial in setting the scene for either 
political discourse or possible violence. 
WALKER