US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN973

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000973 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, AM 
SUBJECT:  GOAM WARNING THE OPPOSITION: OSKANIAN 
CONVOKES THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS 
 
REFS: A) Yerevan 947; b) Yerevan 880 
 
1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please treat 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2. (SBU) On April 26, Foreign Minister Vartan 
Oskanian convoked the diplomatic corps ahead of 
planned opposition rallies for April 27.  Reading 
from a non paper (text below) Oskanian indicated 
that if the opposition carries out its threat to 
encircle the presidential office to prevent the 
President from entering upon his return from Europe 
later this week, Kocharian will invoke Article 55 of 
the Constitution that, "in the event of an immediate 
danger to the constitutional order," permits him to 
"take measures appropriate to the situation." 
Following Oskanian's statement, the newly appointed 
Procurator General Aghvan Hovsepian provided the 
legal framework for this potential action. In 
closing Oskanian noted that this is a "seemingly 
critical period in Armenian history" and called on 
the diplomatic community to help the government to 
"maintain stability."  End Summary. 
 
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TEXT OF GOAM NON-PAPER 
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3. (SBU) The English-language text of the non-paper 
that Foreign Minister Oskanian gave the diplomatic 
corps follows.  Begin Text: 
 
-- The opposition has been holding public rallies 
and unreservedly calling for the president's 
resignation, to be achieved forcefully if necessary. 
 
-- Since such calls are unconstitutional, the 
organizers have been denied permits to hold public 
gatherings.  Nevertheless, rallies have been held 
and for the most part, without interference by the 
authorities. 
 
-- On the night of April 12-13, the opposition went 
beyond words, and disturbed the peace and the normal 
activities of the citizenry.  At that time, the 
police had no choice but to take steps to disperse 
the crowd. 
 
-- We appreciate the concern and attention of the 
international community to these events, have taken 
note of their content, and understand fully the 
clear call for restraint and negotiations. 
 
-- What was missing from the statements of the 
international community was a clear condemnation of 
resorting to forceful change of government.  This 
has been understood by some in the opposition as 
tacit affirmation of their positions. 
 
-- Although the various elements of the opposition 
have united, and although they have been attempting 
to rally public support for a whole year, those 
gathered for these demonstrations remain a very 
small minority of the population, having at no time 
exceeded 7,000 or 8,000, by even the most liberal 
counts. 
 
-- The opposition has rejected all calls by the 
members of the ruling coalition and the government 
to enter into a dialogue.  The Coalition partners in 
the National Assembly have offered the opposition-- 
which is a minority in the National Assembly--veto 
rights in three of the most contentious matters that 
will be placed before the assembly:  electoral 
reform, constitutional reform, and legislative 
reform to support the anti-corruption strategy.  The 
opposition has rejected this offer. 
 
-- According to our information, the opposition's 
plans for the demonstration to be held on April 27 
are most extreme and will inevitably result in a 
confrontation with the authorities.  The plan, 
called Operation Ring, has also been leaked to the 
press.  It calls for encircling the presidential 
offices from both ends of Baghramian Avenue, and 
Demirchian Avenue, so that President Kocharian will 
be unable to enter the building when he returns from 
his European trip. 
 
-- This action is seen by the authorities to be a 
threat to the maintenance of public order.  Such 
action contradicts not only Armenian law but also 
international norms which stress that the exercise 
of freedoms carries with it duties and 
responsibilities as prescribed by law, and necessary 
in a democratic society in the interests of national 
security and public safety. 
 
-- If the opposition follows through with their 
plan, the President will invoke Article 55/14 of the 
Constitution of the Republic of Armenia which 
states:  "In the event of an immediate danger to the 
constitutional order and upon consultations with the 
president of the National Assembly and the Prime 
Minister, [the President] shall take measures 
appropriate to the situation and address the people 
on this subject." 
 
-- No democracy will tolerate attempts to forcefully 
change constitutionally elected officials.  The 
opposition insists that the presidential election of 
2003 was not legitimate.  Yet despite observations 
of irregularities, no international observer group 
claimed that the results did not reflect the will of 
the people.  The opposition is resorting to 
unconstitutional steps to pursue personal vendettas, 
and does not enjoy broad-based popular support. 
 
-- Armenia will continue to expand its democratic 
institutions, go forward with its Council of Europe 
obligations in reinforcing human and civil rights. 
 
-- For Armenia to be able to further deepen these 
processes and systems, we need an opposition that is 
constructively engaged.  Unfortunately, the 
leadership of Armenia's opposition has taken an 
entirely different path. 
 
-- The Armenian government continues to call on 
members of the opposition to resist unconstitutional 
acts and not to resort to violence to achieve their 
aims.  The rights of journalists and those 
peacefully assembled will be respected.  Those who 
have heretofore acted unlawfully and prevented the 
right of journalists to free access are being 
investigated and will be punished within the 
provisions of the law. 
 
-- The Armenian government calls on the 
international community to understand the causes of 
the current situation and engage positively in 
trying to prevent such excessive, unrealistic, 
legally unacceptable and politically baseless 
machinations. 
 
Yerevan 
26 April 2004 
 
End Text. 
WALKER