US embassy cable - 01HARARE1293

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001293 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR - VDICKSON-HORTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/11 
TAGS: EAGR, PGOV, PHUM, EAID, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS MEET WITH GOZ 
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SECURITY SERVICES TO DISCUSS LAND REFORM 
 
REFS: A. HARARE 1276, B. HARARE 1102 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D' AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS 1.5 (B/D). 
 
1. (C) ON APRIL 10 EDGAR GUNDRY, CHAIRMAN FOR THE 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) REGION OF MASHONALAND 
WEST-SOUTH, TOLD ECONOFF THAT A GROUP OF CFU OFFICIALS 
MET ON APRIL 9 WITH ZIMBABWE'S FIVE SECURITY SERVICES. 
THESE SERVICES, ACCORDING TO GUNDRY, ARE THE PRESIDENT'S 
OFFICE, THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION, THE 
ZIMBABWE REPUBLIC POLICE, THE ZIMBABWE NATIONAL ARMY, 
AND THE ZIMBABWE AIR FORCE.  THE PURPOSE OF THIS MEETING 
WAS FOR THE CFU TEAM TO PRESENT THEIR "FARMING INTO THE 
FUTURE" PLAN, A BLUEPRINT AGREED TO AT THE CFU SPECIAL 
CONGRESS HELD IN MARCH (REF B).  GUNDRY DID NOT KNOW THE 
NAMES OF THE OFFICIALS WHO HAD REPRESENTED EACH OF THE 
SECURITY SERVICES, BUT SAID THAT THE PRESENTATION WAS 
VIDEOTAPED BY SECURITY OFFICIALS.  HE BELIEVED THIS WAS 
DONE SO THAT THE PRESENTATION COULD BE VIEWED BY 
PRESIDENT MUGABE. 
 
2. (C) GUNDRY WAS INFORMED BY THE CFU EXECUTIVE THAT THE 
PRESENTATION WAS RECEIVED POSITIVELY BY THE FIVE 
SECURITY SERVICE REPRESENTATIVES.  HOWEVER, THE CFU TEAM 
WAS ALSO TOLD BY ONE, APPARENTLY IN REFERENCE TO THE 
OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE, THAT "YOU 
CREATED A MONSTER, AND WE ARE NOT GOING TO FORGET THAT. 
WE WILL FORGIVE YOU AND MOVE ON, BUT WE WILL NOT FORGET 
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THAT." 
 
3. (C) GUNDRY SAID THAT THE MEETING WITH THE SECURITY 
SERVICES WAS PART OF THE CFU'S ONGOING EFFORT TO QUIETLY 
RE-ENGAGE THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) ON THE LAND 
ISSUE (REF A).  AS PART OF THIS STRATEGY, GUNDRY 
REVEALED THAT THE CFU TEAM WAS SCHEDULED TO MEET ON 
APRIL 10 WITH THE PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE ON LAND TO 
PRESENT THE CFU PLAN.  GUNDRY HAS BEEN TOLD BY THE CFU 
EXECUTIVE THAT THE GOZ OFFICIALS WHO HAVE BEEN PRESENTED 
THE PLAN HAVE REACTED FAVORABLY TO IT, BUT THAT NONE OF 
THESE OFFICIALS HAS THE AUTHORITY TO ACCEPT THE PLAN AS 
A WAY FORWARD ON THE LAND ISSUE.  IT IS CLEAR, GUNDRY 
ADDED, THAT THE FINAL DECISION LIES WITH ONE PERSON -- 
PRESIDENT MUGABE. 
 
4. (C) COMMENT: THE CONTINUING QUIET MEETINGS BETWEEN 
THE CFU AND THE GOZ ARE POSITIVE INDICATORS.  IT IS 
CLEAR TO ALL THAT THE GOZ'S "FAST TRACK" LAND 
RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM IS GETTING NOWHERE FAST.  OUR BEST 
GUESS, THROUGH TALKING TO COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND 
BUSINESSES, AND TRACKING PRESS REPORTS, IS THAT NO MORE 
THAN 5,000 FAMILIES HAVE BEEN RESETTLED NATIONWIDE UNDER 
"FAST TRACK".  (NOTE: THE WORLD BANK ESTIMATES A TOTAL 
OF 27,000 PEOPLE IN THESE 5,000 FAMILIES.  THIS 
CONTRASTS WITH THE LATEST GOZ CLAIM OF 80,000 FAMILIES 
RESETTLED.)  THE RESETTLEMENT THAT HAS OCCURRED HAS 
ENTAILED GIVING PEOPLE A PIECE OF LAND ON AN OCCUPIED 
FARM, AND PROVIDING NO OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE OR SUPPORT 
SERVICES.  GIVEN THAT THE GOZ HAS NO RESOURCES TO FUND A 
REAL RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, THE CURRENT FREEFALL IN THE 
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ZIMBABWEAN ECONOMY, AND THE CENTRAL ROLE THAT WHITE 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS PLAY IN THE ECONOMY, THE PRESSURE IS 
MOUNTING ON PRESIDENT MUGABE TO REACH A COMPROMISE ON 
THE LAND ISSUE.  HOWEVER, POLITICAL GAIN FROM THE LAND 
ISSUE REMAINS THE OVERRIDING CONCERN FOR MUGABE.  HE 
WILL NOT AGREE TO A COMPROMISE WITH THE CFU AND WHITE 
COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNLESS IT ALLOWS HIM A WAY TO 
PROCLAIM VICTORY ON THE LAND ISSUE AND USE THIS TO 
BOLSTER THE RULING PARTY IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE.  OUR 
VIEW IS THAT THERE IS ONLY A SLIM CHANCE MUGABE WILL 
TAKE THIS OPTION.  END COMMENT. 
 
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