US embassy cable - 04KATHMANDU790

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KATHMANDU 000790 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY 
NSC FOR MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, NP, Government of Nepal (GON), Political Parties 
SUBJECT: NEPALI KING PARLEYS WITH SOME PARTIES, PUT OFF BY 
OTHERS AS PROTESTS CONTINUE 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 757 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: CDA ROBERT K. BOGGS.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) As daily anti-government protests continued into 
their third week, on April 22 King Gyanendra met individually 
with leaders of three parties, including Nepali Congress 
(Democratic) President Sher Bahadur Deuba, to explore 
possibilities for resolving the political impasse.  According 
to a Deuba confidant, the King seemed willing to consider a 
change in government, but apparently "had not yet made up his 
mind" whether to choose Deuba as interim Prime Minister. 
Leaders of the two largest political parties, the Communist 
Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) and Nepali 
Congress, however, have rejected for now the King's offer to 
meet.  A UML source justified his party's refusal on the 
basis of party leadership fears that meeting the King 
now--with the "illegitimate" government of Prime Minister 
Surya Bahadur Thapa still in power--would be misinterpreted 
as a sell-out by the UML's radicalized youth wing.  A Palace 
confidant told Charge he expects talks with the UML and 
Nepali Congress to take place within the next few days.  Now 
that the King has apparently decided to take up the parties 
on their demand for talks, it is important that the political 
leadership show some flexibility and unity of purpose and 
principle.   End summary. 
 
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KING CHATS WITH SOME PARTY LEADERS . . . 
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2.  (SBU)  As daily anti-government protests continued into 
their third week, King Gyanendra held separate conversations 
on April 22 with the leaders of the Nepali Congress 
(Democratic) Party, the National Democratic Party (in Nepali, 
Rastriya Prajatantra Party or RPP), and the Nepal Sadbhavana 
Party (Mandal) to explore possibilities for resolving the 
political impasse.  (Note:  There are two rival factions 
claiming legitimacy as the "real" Sadbhavana Party.  The 
Mandal faction is the smaller, royalist faction.  The King 
refuses to meet with the larger faction, which is part of the 
coalition of five parties now protesting against the 
Government, because it has not been recognized by the 
Election Commission as a legitimate party.  End note.)  An 
offer by the King to meet with the heads of the Nepali 
Congress, the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist 
Leninist (UML), and the Peasants and Workers Party was 
rejected by the parties' leaders.  Local media reporting the 
King's meetings on April 23 speculated that a change in 
government is imminent, with Nepali Congress (Democratic) 
Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba the new heir apparent. 
 
3.  (C)  RPP Spokeswoman Roshan Karki confirmed that 
Pashupati SJB Rana, her party's Chairman, met with the King 
on April 22.  According to Karki, Rana urged the King to 
dismiss the government of current Prime Minister (and RPP 
member) Surya Bahadur Thapa and form an all-party government 
to pursue dialogue with the Maoists.  Karki dismissed 
speculation that the King would appoint Deuba to head such a 
government.  The King labeled Deuba as "incompetent" when he 
dismissed him as Prime Minister in October 2002, she 
recalled.  For the King to reappoint Deuba would be 
tantamount to admitting he made a mistake in dismissing him 
in the first place--something the monarch is unlikely to do. 
(Note:  The King had acknowledged to Ambassador Malinowski in 
his April 20 meeting that he would have to "eat crow" if he 
were to reappoint Deuba, but indicated he did not consider 
that a political liability.  End note.)  Karki also suggested 
that K.V. Ranjan, former Indian Ambassador to Nepal who is 
apparently in Kathmandu on an unofficial visit, may play a 
significant role.  (Note:  Ranjan's last visit to Kathmandu 
immediately preceded the dismissal of the government of 
Lokendra Bahadur Chand and the appointment of Surya Bahadur 
Thapa.  Rightly or wrongly, most Nepalis saw "the Indian 
hand" in that sequence of events.) 
 
4.  (C)  According to Nepali Congress (Democratic) Central 
Committee member Dr. Minendra Rijal, Deuba's meeting with the 
King on April 22 left the former Prime Minister believing 
that the King "had not yet made up his mind" about whom to 
choose to head a possible new government.  For example, the 
King reportedly suggested a "neutral government" to oversee 
elections.  Such a proposal would not be acceptable to his 
party, Rijal said.  Since the King himself is not neutral, 
how can we believe that his hand-picked government would be? 
he asked.  Deuba suggested himself as the best candidate to 
head a new government, Rijal reported, since he had been the 
last elected Prime Minister before the King assumed executive 
authority and because he has the support of the UML, Nepal's 
largest political party.  The King offered a noncommittal 
response to this proposal, Rijal said, pending consultations 
with other parties.  While the UML likely will support Deuba 
for Prime Minister, the Nepali Congress, headed by Deuba's 
arch-rival Girija Prasad Koirala, will surely try to obstruct 
the appointment and prevent consensus, Rijal conceded.  Deuba 
"has to reach out to Koirala" to secure his cooperation. 
Rijal also raised the visit of former Indian Ambassador and 
perceived "kingmaker" Ranjan, which he believes portends an 
imminent change in government. 
 
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. . . AND WITH THE PM . . . 
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5.  (C) RPP Spokeswoman Karki reported that the King met with 
PM Thapa on April 22 as well.  According to Karki, the King 
asked Thapa 22 different questions, including how and why his 
government had allowed the protests to gain momentum, why the 
police had suppressed some of the protests with violence, and 
why journalists covering the protests had been arrested.  The 
King's line of questioning indicates deep-seated 
dissatisfaction with the current government and its handling 
of the crisis, Karki asserted, and provides further evidence 
that he may be contemplating a change. 
 
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. . . BUT NOT WITH PROTESTING PARTIES 
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6.  (SBU)  Nepali Congress President Koirala and UML General 
Secretary Madhav Nepal have both initially rejected the 
 
SIPDIS 
King's offer to meet, according to party sources and the 
local media.  UML Central Committee member Jhala Nath Khanal 
said that the party had decided not to agree to meet the King 
unless PM Thapa resigns first.  When asked to explain the 
wisdom of dismissing one government before another had even 
been discussed, let alone agreed upon, Khanal said that the 
party leadership was fearful that meeting the King without an 
identifiable victory in hand--like Thapa's resignation--could 
be misinterpreted by the more radicalized youth wing as a 
sell-out.  Interspersed with their anti-government slogans 
over the past few days, protesters from the party's youth 
wing had also been shouting warnings to the leadership not to 
compromise on their demands, he claimed.  Having whipped up 
anti-government fervor to such a pitch, the UML leadership 
would be criticized as hypocritical if it were perceived as 
running meekly to meet the King at his beck and call, Khanal 
said.  If Thapa resigns, a positive climate for 
reconciliation could be created.  The UML will support Deuba 
as a consensus candidate for Prime Minister to head an 
all-party government, he confirmed. 
 
7.  (SBU)  Nepali Congress General Secretary Sushil Koirala 
said his party will not agree to meet the King until he 
addresses over public media, such as television or radio, 
"the political agenda."  When asked to elaborate, Koirala 
said that the King should issue his invitation to meet 
protesting party leaders over the radio or television.  He 
added that the Nepali Congress would not agree to an 
"all-sided" government made up of independents and 
technocrats.  For the Nepali Congress, the only appropriate 
government is one composed entirely of members of the five 
protesting political parties--a group from which G.P. Koirala 
has continued to exclude Deuba's Nepali Congress (Democratic). 
 
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PROTESTS CONTINUE 
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8.  (SBU) These discussions take place against a backdrop of 
continued civil unrest and anti-government demonstrations. 
While many of these protests seem choreographed, the 
demonstrators are becoming increasingly aggressive and 
confrontational, and the potential for greater violence looms 
large.  On April 22 protesters succeeded in completely 
paralyzing traffic in the center of the city for at least two 
hours, rendering Embassy vehicles, for the first time in two 
years of such demonstrations, unable to leave the Phora 
Durbar GSO compound.  Student protesters rained bricks on 
pedestrians, police and motorcycles on the posh Durbar Marg 
shopping district, site of several upscale hotels, 
restaurants, and Tibetan antique dealerships, while chanting 
"He's not our King."  (The Palace is located at the opposite 
end of Durbar Marg--no more than 200 yards away.)  When a 
brick hit a small child riding pillion on the back of his 
father's motorcycle, a crowd of local residents (many of them 
disgruntled merchants who had been forced to shutter their 
shops for the day) responded with fury, hurling bricks back 
at the students thronging the streets and perched atop 
buildings along the avenue.  The police, in full riot gear, 
looked on impassively.  After occupying the streets, 
disrupting traffic and halting commerce for more than five 
hours, the students returned to their campus at about 2:00 
p.m. 
 
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PALACE POINT OF VIEW 
---------------------- 
 
9.  (C)  Royal confidant and business partner Prabhakar Rana 
confirmed to CDA on April 23 that discussions with the 
parties are going forward.  According to Rana, the Palace 
remains confident that, their initial refusals 
notwithstanding, Nepali Congress President Koirala and UML 
General Secretary Madhav Nepal will agree to meet with the 
King within the next few days.  In his recent discussions 
with Koirala, Rana commented, the Nepali Congress leader 
seemed uncharacteristically "more reasonable" and 
accommodating than ever before, while the UML's 
Nepal--usually the more flexible and rational of the 
pair--seemed to be assuming a more rigid position.  The King 
will not/not ask PM Thapa to step down before a new 
government is in place, as Nepal is apparently demanding, 
Rana added.  The King is persuaded that people desperately 
want elections, Rana said, and will only consider a change if 
a new government can engage with the Maoists.  The King would 
want to meet with any proposed new government to discuss a 
"road map" for dealing with the Maoists.  The new government 
would be charged with creating appropriate conditions for 
elections to include, if possible, Maoist participation in 
the polls, Rana said. 
 
10.  (C)  The King would prefer "someone younger and less 
corrupt" than Deuba to head such a government, Rana said, but 
was willing to consider the Nepali Congress (Democratic) 
leader if he emerges as a consensus candidate.  If a new 
all-party government is formed, the King will ask it to 
commit to dissolving itself by next February in favor of a 
neutral caretaker government to oversee elections.  To lock 
in the parties' cooperation, the King may ask them to agree 
to amend the Constitution to stipulate that a caretaker 
government oversee elections, Rana reported. 
 
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COMMENT 
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11.  (C) The King has been under increasing diplomatic 
pressure, including from the U.S., to break the stalemate by 
reaching out to the parties.  As Ambassador Malinowski 
recommended in his April 20 meeting with the King, the 
monarch has apparently been making extensive use of 
unofficial envoys like Prabhakar Rana to prepare the 
groundwork for an agreement.  The parties had indicated a 
willingness, at the Ambassador's urging, to respond 
positively to such overtures (Reftel).  Now faced with the 
real possibility of such an overture, the parties appear to 
be backing off.  In this situation, it is difficult to 
determine the motives of either side.  Are the two biggest 
parties playing hard to get in an effort to increase their 
bargaining power?  Is the King setting impossibly high 
standards that he is confident the parties cannot meet?  If 
they are indeed sincere, instead of issuing ultimatums, party 
leaders should be seeking, in concert with Palace mediators, 
some suitable middle ground that avoids humiliating the King 
while preserving their own substantial sense of self-worth. 
The King, on the other hand, also risks overplaying his hand. 
 Unless he can demonstrate to wary party leaders a 
willingness to compromise as well, he may lose yet another 
opportunity to bring the parties into his confidence and off 
of the streets. 
 
 
 
BOGGS