US embassy cable - 04RANGOON514

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000514 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, BM, TH 
SUBJECT: GOB PULLS THE PLUG ON BANGKOK II 
 
REF: A. RANGOON 487 AND PREVIOUS 
 
     B. BANGKOK 2527 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  According to an MFA contact, Burma has opted 
out of the second meeting of the "Bangkok Process" and 
requested a postponement of at least one month, likely part 
of an effort to focus exclusively on reconvening the National 
Convention on May 17.  We suspect the GOB realizes that the 
recent release of two NLD CEC members and the reopening of 
NLD headquarters is, in the eyes of the international 
community, no substitute for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi. 
 Should the SPDC continue to detain ASSK, the generals are 
likely to assiduously avoid any venue where criticism could 
derail the reconvening of the Convention.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) According to the Director of the Americas Division at 
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, U Thant Kyaw, the GOB has 
officially informed the Thai Government that Burma will not 
attend the second meeting of the "Bangkok Process," scheduled 
for April 29-30. 
 
3. (C) On April 23, U Thant Kyaw told us the GOB had informed 
the RTG that Foreign Minister U Win Aung was "not available" 
in late April and had therefore requested a postponement of 
Bangkok II for "at least one month."  He said that 
discussions were under way between the GOB and the RTG to 
identify a new date, a process that has been somewhat 
hampered by the absence of Deputy FM U Khin Maung Win, who is 
on leave following the untimely death of his wife earlier 
this week. 
 
4. (C) In response to our query on the reason for postponing 
the meeting, U Thant Kyaw would only say that the "matter is 
complicated and difficult to explain."  He acknowledged that 
FM Win Aung had previously agreed to attend the meeting and 
noted that the RTG had already issued official invitations to 
participants.  However, he added, the FM is "involved in 
serious matters and must be in Rangoon during the coming 
weeks." 
 
5. (C) Comment:  We have seen several signs that the SPDC is 
clearing the deck to prepare for the reconvening of the 
National Convention on May 17.  In addition to the Bangkok 
meeting, the GOB has apparently postponed the next round of 
peace talks with the KNU, which had been scheduled to resume 
this month.  Ultimately, however, the regime's motives 
involve more than mere scheduling conflicts.  Senior GOB 
officials clearly realize that the recent release of two NLD 
CEC members and the reopening of NLD headquarters is, in the 
eyes of the international community, no substitute for the 
release of Aung San Suu Kyi.  Should the SPDC continue to 
detain ASSK, the generals are likely to assiduously avoid any 
venue where criticism could derail the reconvening of the 
National Convention.  End Comment. 
 
6. (U) This cable has been coordinated with Embassy Bangkok. 
Martinez