US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO694

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000694 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, SS/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC 
 
E.O. 12958:      DECL: 04-23-14 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PINR, CE, Political Parties 
SUBJECT:  In big defeat for new government, Sri Lankan 
Parliament elects Speaker from Opposition ranks 
 
Refs:  (A) Colombo-SA/INS telecon 04-22-04 
 
-      (B) Colombo 690, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The Sri Lankan Parliament has elected 
W.J.M. Lokubandara, an MP for the Opposition UNP, as its 
next Speaker.  The vote, which took place late April 22, 
was a close one, 110-109, with six abstentions. 
Parliament reconvenes on May 18.  While the Speaker job 
is largely symbolic, the new government has lost 
significant face and will be on shaky ground if there is 
a vote of no confidence down the road.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) SPEAKER ELECTED (FINALLY):  Late April 22, in a 
marathon, raucous all-day session, W.J.M. Lokubandara, a 
former minister from the Opposition United National 
Party (UNP) was elected Speaker of Sri Lanka's 
Parliament by a margin of one vote.  The final result, 
which came after three rounds of voting, was 110 for 
Lokubandara and 109 for United People's Freedom Alliance 
(UPFA) candidate D.E.W. Gunasekera.  (The "UPFA" is the 
technical term for the grouping of President 
Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka Freedom Party "SLFP," the 
radical Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna "JVP," and several 
small leftist parties.  Gunasekara is a member of the 
Communist Party.)  As reported in Ref B, the first round 
of voting ended in a 108-108 tie.  The second vote was 
cancelled after several UPFA parliamentarians seized the 
ballot box midway through voting and prevented further 
votes from being cast.  The third and decisive round of 
voting for the Speaker position proceeded largely 
without incident late on April 22, but hooting, 
hollering, and the throwing of papers and files erupted 
from the government side after the result of the voting 
was announced. 
 
3.  (C) LIKELY BREAKDOWN OF VOTES:  The voting for the 
Speaker position was done via secret ballot, so 
determining the exact breakdown of the votes is 
difficult.  That said, the UNP, which has 82 seats, 
appears to have garnered the support of the pro- 
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) Tamil National 
Alliance (TNA)with its 21 seats (the TNA has 22 seats, 
but one of its MPs did not turn up), and the Sri Lanka 
Muslim Congress (SLMC) with its five.  The UPFA (and its 
Tamil party ally, the EPDP) with its 106 seats appear to 
have voted with Gunasekara.  Of the six abstentions, 
five of them apparently came from the Jathika Hela 
Urumaya (JHU) party, which has nine MPs, all of them 
Buddhist monks.  Two of the JHU MPs are thought to have 
voted for the UPFA and, unexpectedly, two may have voted 
for Lokubandara. 
 
4.  (C) PARLIAMENT LEFT IN TURMOIL:  Local press 
coverage of Parliament's opening highlighted the 
sensationalistic nature of the day's events.  Media 
reports underscored the raucous and juvenile behavior of 
the MPs -- sitting on the ballot box to prevent voting, 
hurling insults at the Buddhist monk members (some UPFA 
MPs were angry that the JHU had not aligned itself with 
Gunasekara), hooting and jeering during other MPs' 
speeches.  Memories of the sparring on April 22 seem 
likely to cast a shadow over future sessions of 
Parliament when it next meets on May 18.  On May 18, 
members will proceed with selecting a "deputy speaker 
and chairman of committees" and a "deputy chairman of 
committees."  While the UPFA has already proposed a 
candidate for each position, the UNP has not put forward 
any nominations at this point.  (The UPFA's candidate 
for deputy speaker is Geethanjana Gunawardena, a UPFA 
"national list" MP, and the deputy chairman nominee is 
Muslim UPFA MP Segu Issadeen.)  If no candidates are 
proposed to challenge the government's nominees, then 
Gunawardena and Issadeen will automatically assume the 
posts.  In other possible moves down the line, the UNP 
could bring a no-confidence motion against the UPFA-led 
government.  There has been no indication, as of yet, 
that such a motion is being put together at this point. 
Contacts report, however, that it is a real possibility 
during upcoming sessions of Parliament, especially given 
the government's failure to elect its own nominee as 
Speaker.  (A loss in a vote of no confidence would 
signal that the new government was about to collapse, 
but it could still linger on.  Per parliamentary 
tradition and Sri Lanka's Constitution, a loss on a 
Budget presentation vote would lead to a collapse of the 
government, however, and would probably herald early 
elections.  The budget vote takes usually takes place at 
a point late in the year.) 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT:  While the Speaker job is largely 
symbolic, the new government has lost significant face 
in losing the vote for Speaker.  It will certainly be on 
shaky ground if there is a vote of no confidence down 
the road.  If the new government does survive, one major 
problem it could face in having Lokubandara as Speaker 
relates to President Kumaratunga's proposal that a 
"constituent assembly" be called to change the 
Constitution and restore a Westminster-type system with 
a strong prime minister.  (Kumaratunga, who is term- 
limited as president, wants to stay in politics as PM if 
this happens.)  Lokubandara could throw many procedural 
wrenches into these plans.  In the meantime, it is not 
clear how the new government can regain the initiative 
in the near-term.  Whatever "mandate" it had coming out 
of the April 2 election in which the UPFA performed very 
strongly, appears to have been frittered away in 
SLFP/JVP infighting and the defeat of its candidate for 
Speaker.  In another ominous sign for the UPFA, New 
Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse tried to tamp down the 
disruptive behavior, but he could not gain control of 
his UPFA MPs.  END COMMENT. 
 
6.  (C) BIO-DATA ON SPEAKER LOKUBANDARA:  W.J.M. 
Lokubandara, 63, is an attorney-at-law.  He is an honors 
graduate from the University of Peradeniya.  He also 
earned a degree in the UK in Sanskrit.  He was first 
elected to Parliament in 1977 as a United National Party 
(UNP) MP from Haputale in Uva District in southeastern 
Sri Lanka and has been in Parliament since that time.  In 
the previous UNP government (2001-2004), he served as 
Minister of Buddhist Affairs and also as the Minister of 
Justice, Law Reform and National Integration.  During 
that government, Lokubandara was considered to be a key 
link to the important Buddhist clergy.  He is highly 
respected and a friendly interlocutor.  He is Sinhalese 
Buddhist and is married.  He speaks excellent English. 
END BIO-DATA. 
 
7.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD