US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV2328

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002328 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI INTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, U.S.-ISRAEL RELATIONS 
SUBJECT: SHARON TELLS KNESSET NO USG ASSURANCES WITHOUT 
DISENGAGEMENT 
 
REF: A. TEL AVIV 2256 
 
     B. TEL AVIV 2250 
     C. TEL AVIV 2231 
     D. TEL AVIV 2206 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) With an April 21 poll showing only 
44-percent-to-40-percent Likud majority support for his 
disengagement plan, down from a week ago, an energized PM 
Sharon told a special Knesset session on April 22 that USG 
assurances on right of return and retention of settlements 
are tied to fulfillment of the withdrawal and will be lost if 
the plan is rejected.  Sharon's strong statement indicates 
that he is mobilizing to counter a well organized withdrawal 
opposition movement and a lead that has shrunk from last 
week's 57/37 percent and 54/37 percent poll support margins. 
The so-far lethargic support of key Likud ministers for 
disengagement, coupled with the all-out PR campaign of the 
opposition, could be contributing to a closer gap in the 
polls.  With 10 days left before the referendum, Sharon will 
undoubtedly mobilize further, graphically painting the 
consequences of failure, to ensure a May 2 victory for his 
plan.   End summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Ha'aretz Poll Could be Wake-Up Call for Sharon 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
2.  (C) Speaking before a special Knesset plenary on April 
22, PM Sharon asserted that without his disengagement plan, 
Israel would lose all of the April 14 assurances that 
President Bush made to PM Sharon in return for withdrawing 
from Gaza and four West Bank settlements.  Sharon spoke the 
same day that Ha'aretz published April 21 poll results 
showing that 44 percent of Likud members favor the PM's 
disengagement plan in the May 2 referendum while 40 percent 
said they oppose it.  Those numbers shift to 47 percent and 
40 percent, respectively, among those Likud members who say 
they will actually vote.  The results come only a week after 
two other media polls showed  57/37 percent and 54/32 percent 
support margins (ref C).  Asked about the drop in poll 
numbers over a single week, pollster Hannoch Smith told 
poloff on April 22 that his company was commissioned to 
conduct private polls for Likud and that, based on polls it 
had conducted among Likud voters, the Ha'aretz poll "makes 
sense."  He noted that among the broader population, however, 
the disengagement plan is supported two to one. 
 
3.  (C) Neither the USG assurances on Palestinian refugees or 
Israeli retention of settlement blocs, nor initial statements 
of support from FinMin Benyamin Netanyahu, Foreign Minister 
Silvan Shalom and Education Minister Limor Livnat -- none of 
whom Sharon has yet to put on the campaign trail -- seem to 
have yet added any Likud support.  Observers say Likud voters 
may question the motives of these ministers in supporting the 
plan, concluding that Netanyahu, Shalom, and Livnat have 
changed their positions not because they are convinced of the 
plan's value, but for purely personal political reasons.  FM 
Shalom, for example, presumably would not want to give Sharon 
reason to hand over his ministerial position to Labor leader 
Peres in a cabinet reshuffle. 
 
------------------- 
A Lonely Bandwagon 
------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who can only 
muster a small support base among Likud voters, is the only 
key Likud minister so far hitting the referendum campaign 
trail -- literally.  Olmert launched the pro-disengagement 
campaign on April 21 when he boarded the "disengagement bus" 
that will travel the country to rally Likud voters behind the 
plan.  Olmert reportedly complained that same day about being 
the only Likud minister, out of nine others who support the 
plan, to take an active role in the campaign, telling the 
Jerusalem Post that "there's plenty of room on the bus and 
you never know, at any point a minister could get on.  I have 
reserved places for each of them." 
 
5.  (C) Observers and partisans alike are spinning 
developments and positions -- from rumors cited by political 
consultant Yossi Olmert, D/PM Olmert's brother, that 
Netanyahu, Livnat and Shalom may quietly be asking their 
supporters to vote against the plan, to MK Omri Sharon's 
threat that his father will resign if the disengagement 
initiative fails in the referendum.  (Note: Olmert dismissed 
Omri's threat, noting that the PM would not resign in the 
face of a referendum loss since the PM understands the 
benefits derived from his status if indicted on bribery 
charges.) 
 
-------- 
COMMENT 
-------- 
 
6.  (C) Apart from D/PM Olmert's bus tour, a comforting 
security-related endorsement by DefMin Mofaz, and Omri's 
efforts, PM Sharon had not until today mounted an all-out 
campaign to win the April 2 Likud referendum.  With his 
Knesset speech, he has now staked out for both Likud rank and 
file -- and for the so-far demure Netanyahu, Livnat and 
Shalom -- his claim to the great issues of the nation, 
delivering the "great achievement... to prevent the flooding 
of Israel with refugees, to preserve the large Israeli 
settlement blocs under our eternal rule.... (and win) the 
broad U.S. commitment to Israel's right to defend itself." 
With polls as they are 10 days before the referendum and with 
President Bush's assurances in his pocket, Sharon will 
continue to paint the referendum vote as determining the fate 
of the nation, and by doing so, seek to dragoon into the 
active campaign ranks the supportive but still lethargic 
Likud party leaders -- and their constituencies -- necessary 
to win the day. 
 
 
 
********************************************* ******************** 
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website. 
********************************************* ******************** 
KURTZER